tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86444131114372714832024-03-08T16:15:24.633-05:00ISDS NewsWelcome to the blog for the International Society for Disease Surveillance. By serving as a gateway to other ISDS resources, this blog is intended to keep Society members informed on recent Society activity and news in disease surveillance. You can view the full blog by clicking on the banner above.ISDShttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13536703551667507058noreply@blogger.comBlogger430125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-56480950714295466352016-05-25T14:45:00.002-04:002016-05-25T14:48:01.684-04:00Call For Abstracts: 2016 ISDS Annual Conference, December 6-8, Atlanta, GA<br />
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<strong><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The Scientific Program Committee Invites You to Submit Your Abstract for the 2016 ISDS Annual Conference, </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="aBn" data-term="goog_232514290" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">December 6-8, 2016</span></span></span></strong></div>
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<strong><span style="font-family: "tahoma" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.syndromic.org/storage/documents/2016_Conference/isds_call_for_abstracts_2016.pdf" target="_blank">(Download a pdf of the Call for Abstracts)</a></span></strong></div>
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<strong>Conference Tracks</strong></div>
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The 15th Annual International Society for Disease Surveillance (ISDS) Conference, to be held <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_232514291" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">December 6-8, 2016</span></span>
in Atlanta, Georgia, will bring together leaders and scientists from
health departments, academic institutions, government
agencies/ministries, nongovernmental agencies, industry and stakeholders
from the public and private sectors. The Scientific Program Committee
(SPC) invites you to submit an abstract for the 2016 Conference!</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
ISDS is dedicated to the
improvement of population health by advancing the science and practice
of disease surveillance. We strongly encourage submissions that address
this year's conference theme - New Frontiers in Surveillance: Data
Science and Health Security.</div>
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The 2016 SPC is seeking
abstracts that focus on multiple aspects of disease surveillance, which
involves the timely and regular reporting of information on infectious
or chronic disease, or injury, to support population health monitoring
and response. Scientific abstracts that focus on novel surveillance use
cases, data sources, use of Big Data, methodologies for event detection,
characterization or alerting, tools for managing surveillance
processes, global health security challenges, and use of surveillance
information for strengthening health security are encouraged. Evaluation
of state/province, national or global surveillance programs,
algorithms, or interventions are also encouraged.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
Abstracts accepted for presentation at the 2016 ISDS Conference will be published in a special supplement of the <a href="http://ojphi.org/index" target="_blank">Online Journal of Public Health Informatics</a>.</div>
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<strong>ISDS Conference Tracks</strong></div>
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Each submitter will be asked
to assign their abstract to one of the following tracks. While the
tracks are designed to be distinct, there may be some natural overlap
between tracks. Therefore we encourage submitters to use their best
judgment when classifying their submissions.</div>
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<strong>Methods and Science in Surveillance</strong>:
This track is focused on methodological advances in the field of public
health surveillance or applied epidemiology. Novel methods for
analyzing data within surveillance systems are sought. This track also
seeks results from the evaluation of surveillance systems or their
components. Abstracts in this category may describe methods used in
practice, still under development, or which have been tested only in a
research setting. Examples include but are not limited to the following:</div>
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• Evaluation of a surveillance system used for monitoring the health of a jurisdiction;</div>
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• New or improved syndrome definitions for use within a surveillance system;</div>
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• Advanced techniques, components or methods for improving surveillance; or</div>
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• Novel surveillance systems developed or deployed in the field.</div>
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<strong>Informatics and Data Science</strong>:
Informatics studies and pursues the effective uses of data,
information, and knowledge for scientific inquiry, problem solving and
decision making; and data science focuses on extracting knowledge from
large volumes of data that are structured or unstructured. Although
distinct, these disciplines are closely related. Therefore we invite
abstracts that focus on one or more of the following aspects of
informatics and/or data science which enhance disease surveillance:</div>
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• Linking disparate and/or unstructured data or information across a variety of sources;</div>
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• Monitoring or improving the quality of data or information captured by surveillance systems;</div>
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• Technologies that connect
health departments/agencies to one another or with health care delivery
facilities to enable data sharing or coordination of care;</div>
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• Advanced visualization of large datasets or information streams to assist surveillance;</div>
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• Machine learning approaches to detect disease cases to enhance reporting or analysis of surveillance data; or</div>
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• Querying across networks
of databases or data sources to identify information about populations,
disease cases, or social determinants of health.</div>
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<strong>Policy</strong>:
Abstracts in this category may present descriptions of emerging policies
at local, state, federal, international levels associated with
surveillance; lessons learned from the implementation of policies;
governance of surveillance data collection, management or usage; or
approaches for using surveillance systems and data to inform health
and/or public health policy. Examples include but are not limited to the
following:</div>
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• Funding programs to support data collection or surveillance capacity building;</div>
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• Reporting requirements for health care providers or facility types;</div>
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• Use of surveillance data
to inform policies regarding health facility planning, nutrition
programs, transportation, built environment, etc.; or</div>
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• Governance of multi-state or regional data sharing to facilitate surveillance.</div>
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<strong>One Health and Health Security</strong>:
One Health recognizes the health of humans is connected to the health
of animals and the environment; and health security seeks to create a
world safe and secure from global health threats. Similar in nature,
these initiatives within the global health community seek to build
capacity for conducting active surveillance, connect surveillance
activities across governmental agencies as well as nation states, and
respond to outbreaks when and where they occur across the globe. Example
of topics for abstracts may include but are not limited to the
following:</div>
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• Implementation of capacity building program within a ministry;</div>
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• Evaluation of the functional core capacity framework;</div>
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• Future directions and innovations in public health that improve response to major health events;</div>
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• Guidance for healthcare organizations planning to cope with mass casualty crises; or</div>
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• Initiatives or concepts intended to reduce agricultural vulnerabilities.</div>
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<b>Public/Population Health
Surveillance Practice: </b>This track is focused on lessons and outcomes
associated with day-to-day practice of surveillance, outbreak
investigation, management, and response. Abstracts in this track can
describe projects, collaborations, methods, techniques, processes, and
systems that support and/or advance daily surveillance operations within
and across health agencies. Examples of topics for abstracts may
include but are not limited to the following:</div>
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• Redesigned work processes for epidemiologists or disease investigators;</div>
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• Results of an outbreak investigation within a jurisdiction;</div>
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• Comparison of different tools or methods for adoption by a health department;</div>
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• Specification of surveillance targets for newly emerging or reemerging diseases;</div>
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• Regional or national collaborations designed to support surveillance across jurisdictions; or</div>
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• Efforts to coordinate
preparedness for or response to an outbreak with multiple governmental
agencies and/or non-governmental organizations.</div>
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<strong>Presentation Types</strong></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<strong>Oral:</strong> Oral
presentations will be allotted 15 minutes, followed by 5 minutes for
questions. Oral presentations are the preferred format for presenting
results from an evaluation of a surveillance system, method or approach,
or evidence of change following the introduction of a surveillance
practice within a jurisdiction.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<strong>Poster:</strong>
Posters are the preferred format for presenting preliminary research and
results of small-scale studies; describing experimental
projects/programs or works-in-progress; and reporting system
descriptions. Poster sessions are designed to offer direct access to the
authors in a way not possible through oral presentations.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<strong>Panel:</strong>
Panel presentations are the preferred format for deeper discussions of
an issue or question. Panels should focus on a central topic with 3-4
speakers offering unique but complementary views on a given topic. Each
panelist should speak for no more than 10-12 minutes allowing time for
questions and discussion with the audience.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<strong>Roundtable:</strong>
The goal of a roundtable is to encourage discussion rather than be a
presentation/didactic session. The leader should be a knowledgeable and
engaging person who can help stimulate a lively discussion.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<strong>Lightning Talk:</strong>
Lightning sessions are designed to facilitate the speedy sharing of
recent research, theory, publications, works-in-progress, projects,
applications or experiences pertaining to any aspect of the science or
practice of surveillance. Each speaker has just 5 minutes for their talk
and must prepare pre-timed slides that cannot be advanced by the
speaker.</div>
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<strong>Key Dates</strong></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
• Abstract Submission Deadline: <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_232514292" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">August 26, 2016</span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
• Author Acceptance Notification: <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_232514293" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">October 7, 2016</span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
<br />
<strong>Submission Website</strong></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
Abstracts may be submitted at <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://ISDS2016.abstractcentral.com&source=gmail&ust=1464287799136000&usg=AFQjCNECcXEx-jvzjSfapuLigeOJkH04vA" href="http://ISDS2016.abstractcentral.com/" target="_blank">http://ISDS2016.<wbr></wbr>abstractcentral.com</a> <strong>beginning <span class="aBn" data-term="goog_232514294" tabindex="0"><span class="aQJ">June 10, 2016</span></span></strong></div>
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<strong>Additional Support and Information</strong></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
Please visit the conference information page for registration, program and travel-related information.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-top: 0;">
For additional questions concerning your abstract submission, please contact <a href="mailto:mkrumm@syndromic.org" target="_blank">Mark Krumm</a> <a href="tel:617-779-0886" target="_blank" value="+16177790886">617-779-0886</a></div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-61577467770951972542016-05-11T10:11:00.002-04:002016-05-11T10:11:20.411-04:00A Message From CDC: SAVE THE DATE: Transition to ESSENCE Begins July 18<br />
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<span style="font-size: 16pt;">ISDS would like to share the following announcement from the CDC</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 16pt;">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 16pt;">SAVE THE DATE: </span></b><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Transition to ESSENCE Begins July 18 <b><u></u><u></u></b></span></div>
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Dear Colleagues: <u></u><u></u></div>
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The development of the BioSense Platform has been a collaboration from start to finish. Now, the finish is in sight. Our Phase 3 Transition Schedule below provides you with our expected time frame for transitioning sites to ESSENCE:<u></u><u></u></div>
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Every 4 weeks, nine sites will transition to the new data flow, which includes the BioSense Platform Archive and ESSENCE application. We’ll conduct two webinars with each set of sites: an Orientation to the Transition Plan and Adminer (a SQL tool for viewing MS SQL data in the BioSense Platform Archive) and an orientation to the Access & Management Center (AMC) and ESSENCE. <u></u><u></u></div>
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Sites will progress through a series of activities to make sure data are correct, the site is fully operational, and everyone is oriented to using the BioSense Platform tools and resources. Here’s what we want to accomplish each week:<u></u><u></u></div>
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<b>Weekly Transition Activities </b>(updated 4/29/2016)<b><u></u><u></u></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #8b0e04;">Week 1<u></u><u></u></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>CDC presents transition plan and conducts orientation to Adminer<u></u><u></u></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>Users access Adminer to view new BioSense Platform Archive<u></u><u></u></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>Users confirm accuracy of Master Facility Table<u></u><u></u></div>
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<b><span style="color: #8b0e04;">Weeks 2 and 3<u></u><u></u></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>CDC leads orientation to the Access & Management Center (AMC) and ESSENCE<u></u><u></u></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>Users set up accounts and data access via AMC<u></u><u></u></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>Users learn ESSENCE functionality and use it to visualize syndromic surveillance data <u></u><u></u></div>
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<b><span style="color: #8b0e04;">Week 4<u></u><u></u></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>Sites transition to production (new) data flow<u></u><u></u></div>
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<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§</span></span>CDC begins converting legacy data from BioSense 2.0 front-end application to BioSense Platform Archive and into ESSENCE<u></u><u></u></div>
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We value your time and participation, and our goal is to stay on schedule. Schedule dependencies include <u></u><u></u></div>
<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span>Confirmation of site Master Facility Tables, <u></u><u></u><br />
<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span>Completion of CDC’s internal system security checks, and <u></u><u></u><br />
<span style="color: #8496b0; font-family: Wingdings;"><span>§<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal;"> </span></span></span>Site readiness. <u></u><u></u><br />
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We will provide you with timely updates should the schedule need adjusting. In addition, if your site anticipates a schedule conflict, please contact <a href="http://support.syndromicsurveillance.org/" target="_blank">http://support.syndromicsurveillance.org</a><u>.</u> As always, we’ll keep you informed on progress.<u></u><u></u></div>
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A <i>BioSense Platform Quick Start Guide </i>will be available to help you use the platform tools. During the transition, the NSSP Team will schedule conference calls to answer questions and share information. In the meantime, if you have any questions or concerns, please contact us. <u></u><u></u></div>
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Thank you for your assistance as we begin this important phase of work for the BioSense Platform. We look forward to working with you to put the BioSense Platform into full production. <u></u><u></u></div>
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Sincerely,<u></u><u></u></div>
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NSSP Support Team <u></u><u></u></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10pt;">If you have technical questions, please contact our service desk at</span></i><br /><a href="http://support.syndromicsurveillance.org/" target="_blank">http://support.syndromicsurveillance.org</a>.<u></u><u></u></div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-5119916004463421702016-04-05T10:09:00.000-04:002016-04-05T10:09:07.902-04:00Webinar Anouncement: Detecting and Investigating a Large Community Outbreak of Legionellosis - South Bronx, July 2015ISDS invites you to attend a free webinar led by members of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Sharon Balter, MD and Sharon Greene, PhD MPH.<br />
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<b>Date and Time: </b><br />
Thursday, April 21, 2016
3:00 pm - 4:00pm EDT<br />
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<b>Description: </b><br />
This webinar will present an overview of: (1) the epidemiology of Legionnaires' disease (LD), (2) techniques applied by the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene for routine LD surveillance and outbreak investigation, (3) detection and investigation of the second largest community-acquired LD outbreak in the U.S (South Bronx, July 2015), and (4) recent legislation enforcing regular maintenance, testing, and mediation of NYC cooling towers.<br />
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The presenters will conclude by soliciting suggestions from the ISDS community for techniques for defining an outbreak zone and for analyzing point patterns of case locations and cooling towers.<br />
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<b>Presenters:</b><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">Sharon Balter</span> is the Director of the Enteric, Waterborne, and Health Education Unit within the Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. She has an MD from the New York University School of Medicine.<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">Sharon Greene</span> is the Director of the Data Analysis Unit within the Bureau of Communicable Disease, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. She holds a PhD and MPH from the University of Michigan School of Public Health.<br />
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<b><a href="http://bit.ly/1S7EW23" target="_blank">CLICK TO REGISTER</a></b>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-52903367999401066972016-03-29T17:01:00.002-04:002016-03-29T17:01:58.584-04:002016 CDC Surveillance Strategy Report to CongressWe are pleased to share the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2016 Report on the CDC Surveillance Strategy and the Integrated CDC Surveillance Platform.
The <a href="http://www.syndromic.org/storage/documents/CDC_Files/cdc_report_surveillance_strategy.pdf">attached report</a> is a summary of the CDC letter to Congress.
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-4319056959502259492016-03-25T10:33:00.001-04:002016-03-25T12:56:05.627-04:00Systemic Failure and Health Catastrophe: The Final Report from the Flint Water Advisory Task Force<o:p> <span style="font-size: 14px;">
<i>"The Flint water crisis is a story of government failure, intransigence, unpreparedness, delay, inaction, and environmental injustice. The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) failed in its fundamental responsibility to effectively enforce drinking water regulations.</i><br />
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<i>The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) failed to adequately and promptly act to protect public health. Both agencies, but principally the MDEQ, stubbornly worked to discredit and dismiss others’ attempts to bring the issues of unsafe water, lead contamination, and increased cases of Legionellosis (Legionnaires’ disease) to light."
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Matthew M Davis, MD, MAPP, Chris Kolb, Lawrence Reynolds, MD, Eric Rothstein, CPA, Ken Sikkema, Executive Summary Statement<i>, Flint Water Advisory Task Force</i> <i>Final Report</i>, 2016, p. 5
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</span><span style="font-size: 14px;">From the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and all the way to the Governor’s office, there are more than enough culpable participants in the failure to protect the health of Flint’s children. According to pediatrician Mona Hanna-Attisha, MD, who first alerted government officials of concerns for her patients, the lead-contaminated water could impact as many as 8000 children.<sup>1 </sup><br />
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The unimaginable happened. The repercussions are still unknown. But for persons engaged in disease surveillance, public health, health informatics and policy-making, the Final Report is a "must-read" to gain understanding of how separate individual and agency failures compounded to allow a catastrophic outcome. We recommend all practitioners <a href="http://bit.ly/ISDSblog032516" target="_blank">review the report</a>. </span></span></o:p><br />
<o:p><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br />
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</span> <span style="font-size:14px;">1. Abby Goodnough, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/30/us/flint-weighs-scope-of-harm-to-children-caused-by-lead-in-water.html" target="_blank"><em>Flint</em> <i>Weighs Scope of Harm to Children Caused by Lead in Water</i></a>, nytimes.com, January 29, 2016</span><br />
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</span> </o:p>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0Flint, MI, USA43.0125274 -83.68745619999998642.8267584 -84.010179699999981 43.198296400000004 -83.36473269999999tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-28637561995347459622015-10-14T14:02:00.001-04:002015-10-14T14:02:19.968-04:00HSIP Host-Site Application Now Open<strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Host-site applications are now being accepted from state and local public health agencies to host a fellow in the Health Systems Integration Program (HSIP). </strong><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">HSIP host-site applications will be accepted through December 11, 2015.</strong><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">HSIP is an opportunity for health systems capacity building, specifically between public health and clinical care partners. HSIP is one of three fellowship programs of Project SHINE (Strengthening Health Systems through Interprofessional Education). Project SHINE is supported by CDC, CSTE, and NACCHO. The emphasis on interprofessional education aims to build health department and fellow capacity to improve population health through health systems integration. </span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> </span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">The HSIP fellowship places public health practitioners with a background in epidemiology and informatics at health departments for a one-year program. Fellows are involved in projects that address: community epidemiologic surveillance to support community health needs assessments, the public health interface and use of electronic health records, and the sharing of lessons learned from successful public health and primary care professional partnerships. Fellows have a master’s degree or higher with a commitment to working in applied public health.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> </span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"><u>Host-Site Application Information</u></strong><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Host-site applications should describe the fellowship assignment, supervision, support structure and workplace environment proposed for the fellow. </span><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">All applications must include a letter of support from the applicant’s state health officer, State Epidemiologist, or local health officer</strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">. Applications will be reviewed by a panel and are evaluated on:</span><br />
<ul style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">
<li>The scope, quality, and diversity of experience offered to the fellow</li>
<li>Experience of supervisors in management, informatics, and mentoring</li>
<li>Potential long-term career placement for the fellow</li>
<li>Potential professional development opportunities and financial support provided for the fellow</li>
<li>Availability of office space, computer, and office/technical support</li>
<li>Letters of support for the mentor seeking a fellow</li>
</ul>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Fellows are supported through a cooperative agreement with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and are matched to health departments. Host-site applications are limited to one per state health agency or local health agency. Assignments will begin in summer 2016.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> </span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"><u>Mentorship</u></strong><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Applications must include a description of two designated mentors: a primary mentor and a secondary mentor. </strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Mentors must have either a doctoral or master’s degree related to public health with at least eight years of experience in public health management and/or informatics. Both mentors must devote at least four hours per week with the fellow during the first month and at least two hours per week for the duration of the training period. Approved health agencies will have a demonstrated capacity to provide technical training, applied research opportunities, and opportunities for experience in the application of public health informatics in a practical setting.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><strong style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"><u>How to Apply</u></strong><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Please visit </span><a href="http://cste.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a74794e707a0d58b86a809758&id=c218b725a1&e=f6af71ac21" style="color: #4271a3; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">http://shinefellows.org</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> for complete information and the link to the electronic application. Host-site applications will be accepted through December 11, 2015. Please note that applying to the Health Systems Integration Program fellowship does not guarantee acceptance or placement of a fellow at your host health agency.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">If you have any questions about the Health Systems Integration Program or the host-site application, please contact Jessica Pittman at </span><a href="mailto:jpittman@cste.org" style="color: #4271a3; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">jpittman@cste.org</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> or Amanda Masters at </span><a href="mailto:amasters@cste.org" style="color: #4271a3; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">amasters@cste.org</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> or </span><a href="tel:770-458-3811" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" target="_blank" value="+17704583811">770-458-3811</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;"> </span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Best regards,</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><img align="none" alt="Jeff Sig" border="0" height="76" src="http://gallery.mailchimp.com/a74794e707a0d58b86a809758/images/e6e5e2be-ffd2-4fb1-a8b2-de881dcf15a2.jpg" style="border: 0px; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px; margin: 0px; min-height: 76px; outline: none; width: 213px;" width="213" /><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Jeffrey P. Engel, M.D.</span><br style="color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #606060; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 15px; line-height: 22.5px;">Executive Director, CSTE</span>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-6855421969624135702015-09-24T15:58:00.002-04:002015-09-24T15:58:47.753-04:0017th International Congress on Infectious Diseases to be held in Hyderabad, India on March 2-5, 2016<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="font-family: Helvetica; width: 100%px;"><tbody>
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We are excited to share the program for the 17th International Congress on Infectious Diseases to be held in Hyderabad, India on March 2-5, 2016 <a alt="http://www.isid.org/icid/" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.w7iruneab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org%2Ficid%2F" shape="rect" target="_blank">http://www.isid.org/icid/</a></div>
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The program and plenary speakers encompass all fields in infectious diseases with particular attention being paid to the major infectious causes of morbidity and mortality in India and elsewhere. Diseases presented will include HIV, malaria, TB, vaccine preventable diseases, neglected diseases and many others. Current issues and the latest results related to these diseases will be presented in Hyderabad. I encourage you to visit the website for the meeting to find program updates, register for the meeting and also submit abstracts of your own work for presentation during the Congress.</div>
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Abstract submission instructions: <a alt="http://www.isid.org/icid/abstract_guidelines.shtml" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.6yvj9goab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org%2Ficid%2Fabstract_guidelines.shtml" shape="rect" target="_blank">http://www.isid.org/icid/abstract_guidelines.shtml</a> and complete hotel and registration information <a alt="http://www.isid.org/icid/registration_guide.shtml" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.5yvj9goab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org%2Ficid%2Fregistration_guide.shtml" shape="rect" target="_blank">http://www.isid.org/icid/registration_guide.shtml</a> are also posted.</div>
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Please note the following important deadlines:</div>
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Abstract submission deadline:</div>
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Abstract submission deadline: November 1, 2015</div>
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Early registration fee deadline: January 10, 2016</div>
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We are looking forward to welcoming you to Hyderabad, the center of India.</div>
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Sincerely,</div>
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Britta Lassmann</div>
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ISID Program Director</div>
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<a alt="http://www.isid.org./icid/mailinglist_signup.php" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.6obgshvab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org.%2Ficid%2Fmailinglist_signup.php" shape="rect" style="color: white; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Join the 17th ICID Mailing List</a></div>
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ISID would like to acknowledge the 17th ICID Premier Sponsors:<br /><table cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" style="background-color: transparent; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; width: 577px;"><tbody>
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<a alt="http://www.daiichisankyo.com/" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.5obgshvab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.daiichisankyo.com%2F" shape="rect" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="59" hspace="0" src="http://www.isid.org/icid/images/DaiichiSankyo_logo.png" vspace="0" width="58" /></a></div>
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</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" style="color: white; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: middle;"><a alt="http://www.dsin.co.in/" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.4obgshvab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dsin.co.in%2F" shape="rect" style="color: white;" target="_blank">Daiichi-Sankyo India Pharma Pvt. Ltd.</a></td></tr>
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<a alt="http://www.pfizer.com/" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.bpbgshvab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pfizer.com%2F" shape="rect" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="34" hspace="0" src="http://www.isid.org/icid/images/pfizer_cmyk.png" vspace="0" width="58" /></a></div>
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</td><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" style="color: white; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: middle;"><a alt="http://www.pfizer.com/" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.bpbgshvab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pfizer.com%2F" shape="rect" style="color: white; font-size: 11pt;" target="_blank">Pfizer</a></td></tr>
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<a alt="http://www.isid.org/icid/congress_airline.shtml" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.azvj9goab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org%2Ficid%2Fcongress_airline.shtml" shape="rect" target="_blank"><img alt="17th ICID Official Airline" border="0" height="44" hspace="0" src="http://www.isid.org/icid/images/Etihad.jpg" style="display: block;" vspace="0" width="75" /></a></div>
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<tr><td colspan="1" rowspan="1" style="color: white; font-size: 8pt; padding-bottom: 20px;">17th ICID Official Airline</td></tr>
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Travel on Etihad to Hyderabad, India</div>
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<br />The ISID is pleased to announce that Etihad Airways has been selected as the official airline for the 17th ICID in Hyderabad, India. Etihad has excellent connections to Hyderabad from around the globe via Abu Dhabi with more than 100 destinations worldwide.<br /><br />17th ICID Discount Codes are available, <a alt="http://www.isid.org/icid/congress_airline.shtml" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=hl7lwfvab.0.azvj9goab.tynwbgcab.99770&r=3&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.isid.org%2Ficid%2Fcongress_airline.shtml" shape="rect" style="color: white;" target="_blank">click here</a> for more information.</div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-796024724890651582015-09-16T14:46:00.001-04:002015-09-16T14:47:42.238-04:00Job Opportunity: CDC recruiting for architects for next generation surveillance systemJob Opportunity: CDC recruiting for architects for next generation surveillance system<br />
<br />
CDC is looking for IT innovators to help build the next-generation disease surveillance system. Put your experience and skills to work for America’s public health. HHS Entrepreneur-in-Residence is recruiting a data integration architect and software platforms architect for CDC at <a href="http://go.usa.gov/3MV94">http://go.usa.gov/3MV94</a>.<br />
<br />
Some additional Information on HHS Entrepreneur-in-Residence program:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.hhs.gov/idealab/2015/05/28/looking-great-entrepreneurs-residence-apply-now/">http://www.hhs.gov/idealab/2015/05/28/looking-great-entrepreneurs-residence-apply-now/</a>.
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-52845869372006087562015-09-04T13:36:00.001-04:002015-09-04T13:36:28.855-04:00PhD Graduate Study in Epidemiology - Focusing on Animal Health Surveillance<div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">PhD Graduate Study in Epidemiology </span></b></div>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 24.533334732055664px;">Focusing on Animal Health Surveillance</span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 16pt; line-height: 24.533334732055664px;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Veterinary Public Health Institute at the University of Bern in Switzerland has a 3 year graduate study opportunity in Epidemiology. The Swiss Federal Veterinary Office is currently exploring many livestock data sources for their utility for syndromic surveillance. This funded research project will focus on approaches for identifying outbreaks of emerging or important endemic diseases using event detection signals from many diverse syndromic surveillance data streams. The student will work in collaboration with the main applicant, a Post-Doctoral student and surveillance practitioners in the Early Detection Unit of the Swiss Federal Veterinary Office. The goal of the research is to develop methods that will have direct application to early detection of important livestock diseases in Switzerland.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Applicants must possess an undergraduate or MSc degree in any of Biology, Ecology, Computer Science, Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Public Health or related discipline, or have completed their studies in Veterinary Medicine. Students must be eligible for admission to the Graduate School at the University of Bern. An interest in epidemiology, surveillance and quantitative research are essential qualities.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The city of Bern is located in central Switzerland with easy access to skiing, snowshoeing, mountain hiking, mountain biking and other recreational opportunities in the Swiss Alps. Switzerland is centrally located in Europe with easy access by train, plane and car to many European countries including those on the Mediterranean. The Veterinary Public Health Institute focuses on applied research in the areas of animal health surveillance, risk assessment, antimicrobial resistance and infectious disease modelling.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The position is available starting on January 1<sup>st</sup> 2016. Interested applicants must submit: 1) a letter of intent outlining their strengths, interests and future career goals, 2) their curriculum vitae and 3) the names and addresses of three references. For more information, or to apply please send an email to: </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Dr. John Berezowski</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Surveillance Research Group Leader</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Veterinary Public Health Institute </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Liebefeld, Switzerland</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><a href="mailto:john.berezowski@vetsuisse.unibe.ch" target="_blank">john.berezowski@vetsuisse.unibe.ch</a></span></div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-42941366991314377722015-08-27T10:26:00.001-04:002015-09-02T20:25:09.417-04:00ISDS' ICD-10 Master Mapping Reference Table Now Available!<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="content_LETTER.BLOCK18" style="font-family: Helvetica; width: 100%px;"><tbody>
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ICD-10 Master Mapping Reference Table </div>
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<tr><td align="left" colspan="1" rowspan="1" style="color: #403f42; font-size: 10pt; padding: 8px 20px;" valign="top"><span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 27.200000762939453px;">ISDS is pleased to release the ICD-10 Master Mapping Reference Table (MMRT) as a tool and resource to assist public health professionals in code-mapping the conversion between ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM diagnostic codes.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #252525; font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 27.200000762939453px;"><br /></span>
<a alt="http://communityforum.syndromic.org/group/icd-10-mmrt" href="http://www.syndromic.org/programs/icd-10-conversion/icd-10-mmrt" linktype="1" shape="rect" style="color: #a2bf52; font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;" target="_blank" track="on">Learn more and download here!</a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif;">Background</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The upcoming ICD-9/ICD-10 transition will have a significant impact on public health surveillance systems and activities that involve coded clinical data. It is imperative that public health agencies begin to prepare their systems, modify current business processes, and train their workforce to ensure a seamless transition to ICD-10 coded data. To address this urgent need, CDC worked with clinicians and public health professionals to develop ICD-9 to ICD-10 translations based on conceptual mapping for 140 syndromes arranged into 16 broader syndrome groupings. ISDS coordinated the community input on these codesets and concepts, to ensure that they reflect how public health agencies use diagnostic codes for syndromic surveillance activities. Three reviews for each syndrome chapter were compiled, and a panel of syndromic surveillance experts subsequently assessed that the reviews for inclusion. The resulting reference tables, which include 90 syndromes grouped into 13 chapters, serve as a resource for public health agencies looking to ensure a smooth transition between ICD-9 and ICD-10 code-mapping.</span></div>
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Feedback</div>
<span style="font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">If you have any questions or comments for fellow users of the ICD-10 MMRT, please visit the <a alt="http://communityforum.syndromic.org/group/icd-10-mmrt" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001JSzGKaFx00AySdn2Wf5HNc4sFBXjXSuF2lCGPJc64w_o-bsRNOmv2YeW5ReM9q0a2Y-7gkoa5YnyPgcLpHexX05mBSWF7lMmuGrlW7B4_HtflIVsTtAEyRD2lxD_CGL1Mq2XWTRgZEY1Pd4lm2Cr1akR75pngA7yGZIthR_NCFnw_ZUMNNaWRUUZCn8rBFfuH6ssffc2U_DG05nrmxvQ-g==&c=e-aNp1Eet_YEpnwwysOoWRryKeGY4070RORzg4waFTja2cyd-QR28A==&ch=5Gg5ICkq2OqL3j6LuyFwu7qtaawvcKo7CmRefMeSTEhYeR0C9o9JHg==" linktype="1" shape="rect" style="color: #a2bf52;" target="_blank" track="on">ISDS Community Forum ICD-10 MMRT page</a>. If you have any questions for the creators of the ICD-10 MMRT, please e-mail <a href="mailto:icd10@syndromic.org" linktype="2" shape="rect" style="color: #a2bf52;" target="_blank">icd10@syndromic.org</a>. If providing feedback on code mappings, please be specific with chapter, syndrome and line number. Thank you! </span></td></tr>
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Acknowledgement</div>
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<span style="border: 0px; color: black; font-family: Candara, 'Trebuchet MS', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em>The ICD-10 Master Mapping Reference Table is made possible by funding to ISDS through the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) from the Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology and Laboratory Services (CSELS) within the Office of Public Health Scientific Services (OPHSS) at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).</em></span></div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-57133993948458927052015-08-11T14:47:00.003-04:002015-08-11T14:47:54.491-04:00Optimizing Infectious Disease Surveillance<div class="p1">
On <b>Wednesday, August 19, 2015 at 2:00pm – 3:00pm Eastern Time</b>, CSTE will be hosting a webinar entitled “<b>Optimizing Infectious Disease Surveillance</b>.”</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span class="s1">The explosion of public health data provides an opportunity for resource-constrained public health agencies to engage in cost-efficient and truly innovative disease surveillance. However, to design robust surveillance with limited resources we propose a four-step process that systematically evaluates and integrates candidate data streams: (1) define surveillance objectives, (2) specify candidate data sources, (3) simulate historical data where data are missing, and (4) select the most informative combination of data sources. This methodology determines system right-size by quantifying the performance of data sources in terms of the specified surveillance objectives and prioritizes them for incorporation into surveillance systems. In this webinar, I will demonstrate the flexibility and utility of this approach on a provider-based influenza surveillance network in Texas with both traditional and digital data streams across two surveillance objectives: situational awareness and early detection.</span></div>
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<span class="s1">After the webinar, participants will be able to:</span></div>
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<span class="s1">1.</span><span class="s2"> </span><span class="s1">Demonstrate how an integrative surveillance system can be used to improve situational awareness and early detection.</span></div>
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<span class="s1">2.</span><span class="s2"> </span><span class="s1">Assess the performance of various data sources, e.g. primary healthcare providers, laboratory data, emergency department chief complaints, and Google Flu Trends, for surveillance. </span></div>
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<span class="s1">3.</span><span class="s2"> </span><span class="s1">Evaluate the utility of primary healthcare providers and emergency department chief complaints for predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations in at risk populations. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">The presenter is Samuel V. Scarpino, a postdoctoral fellow at the Santa Fe Institute, where he holds the prestigious Omidyar Fellowship. He completed his Ph.D. in Integrative Biology from the University of Texas at Austin, where his dissertation research focused on the design of disease surveillance networks and the integration of diverse data streams to better inform public health decision-making. Dr. Scarpino is an incoming Assistant Professor in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Vermont. His research focuses on the evolutionary and population dynamics of infectious diseases. He applies this work to the design of both public health surveillance systems and intervention strategies.</span></div>
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<span class="s3">Register for this webinar at: <a href="https://csteevents.webex.com/csteevents/onstage/g.php?d=665423224&t=a"><span class="s4">https://csteevents.webex.com/csteevents/onstage/g.php?d=665423224&t=a</span></a></span></div>
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<span class="s1">The webinar recording and slides will be available on the CSTE website shortly after the session has concluded.</span></div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-89733401615120057722015-08-03T16:24:00.004-04:002015-08-03T16:24:49.673-04:00<br />
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<tr><td style="font-family: 'Helvetica Nueue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><img alt="CDC" src="https://public.govdelivery.com/system/images/47266/original/cdclogo.png" style="width: 650px;" /></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="font-family: 'Helvetica Nueue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 24px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 5px;">MMWR Vol. 64 / Early Release</td></tr>
<tr><td style="color: #888888; font-family: 'Helvetica Nueue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; padding-bottom: 5px;">07/07/2015</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: bold;"><em>MMWR</em> Early Release <br /><span style="color: blue; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJlbWFpbCI6ImxzdHJlaWNoZXJ0QGdtYWlsLmNvbSIsImJ1bGxldGluX2xpbmtfaWQiOiIxMDEiLCJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiOTQ2MjQwOTciLCJsaW5rX2lkIjoiNjE3Mzk4NCIsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpkaWdlc3QiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwOi8vd3d3LmNkYy5nb3YvbW13ci8_c19jaWQ9bW13cl9vbmxpbmVfZSIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAxNTA3MDcuNDY4ODAyNDEifQ.AyuzizDwexNdUMbcq5ODpRzoCMEx627OzakT4ToDh0Q" style="text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Vol. 64, Early Release</a></span> <br /><span style="font-size: 9pt;">July 7, 2015</span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/wk/mm64e0707.pdf" target="_blank">PDF</a></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: bold;">In this report</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="https://lnks.gd/l/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJlbWFpbCI6ImxzdHJlaWNoZXJ0QGdtYWlsLmNvbSIsImJ1bGxldGluX2xpbmtfaWQiOiIxMDMiLCJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiOTQ2MjQwOTciLCJsaW5rX2lkIjoiMzIxOTk5NTgiLCJ1cmkiOiJicDI6ZGlnZXN0IiwidXJsIjoiaHR0cDovL3d3dy5jZGMuZ292L21td3IvcHJldmlldy9tbXdyaHRtbC9tbTY0ZTA3MDdhMS5odG0_c19jaWQ9bW02NGUwNzA3YTFfZSIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAxNTA3MDcuNDY4ODAyNDEifQ.sbODtD7je6d3T3aGSo35gQQIIxnDuwS0x_vCZjIq0pc" style="color: blue; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Vital Signs: Demographic and Substance Use Trends Among Heroin Users — United States, 2002–2013</a><span style="color: blue;"> </span> <br /><span style="color: black;">Christopher M. Jones, PharmD, Joseph Logan, PhD, R. Matthew Gladden, PhD, et al.<br /><em>MMWR</em> Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2015;64(Early Release):1-7</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="color: black;">Heroin use and overdose deaths have increased significantly in the United States. Assessing trends in heroin use among demographic and particular substance-using groups can inform prevention efforts. FDA and CDC analyzed data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and National Vital Statistics System reported during 2002–2013. This report summarizes their findings.<br /><br /><br />See also: ISDS webinar:</span><span style="color: blue;"> <span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 18px;"><a href="http://www.syndromic.org/programs/isds-webinars/upcoming-recent/961-webinar-drug-overdose-surveillance" target="_blank">Approaches to Syndromic Case Definitions for Drug Overdose Surveillance</a></span></span></td></tr>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-92026370115533826292015-07-16T11:39:00.002-04:002015-07-16T15:50:36.008-04:00NACDD Now Accepting Applications for the 2015-2016 Epidemiology Mentoring Program<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Applications are now being accepted for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Association of Chronic Disease Directors 2015-2016 National Mentorship Program in Applied Chronic Disease Epidemiology cohort. </span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The goals of the Mentorship Program are to:</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">· enlarge the pool of trained chronic disease epidemiologists at public health agencies,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">· improve the practice of chronic disease epidemiology; and</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">· increase the epidemiological science in chronic disease programs and policies.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">NACDD will select up to <u>nine</u> newly-hired (less than one year) and junior-level epidemiologists from state, tribal, local and territorial health departments. Interested applicants must select a project that will serve as the focus of their mentorship. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">NACDD is also accepting resumes or curricula vitae from senior chronic disease epidemiologists and senior-level epidemiologists with substantial experience in applied chronic disease epidemiology. Mentors will receive a $5,000 stipend and travel support to complete a mentor site visit. Anyone interested in serving as a mentor must be able to enter into a contractual agreement with NACDD to receive the stipend. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The mentoring program will begin in August 2015 and continue until June 30, 2016. Program participants will receive travel support to attend the 16<sup>th</sup> annual Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists Conference, June 19-23, 2016, in Anchorage, Alaska.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">To Apply:</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Mentee:</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> Send completed mentee application, letters of support and required documents to <a href="mailto:nmccoy@chronicdisease.org" target="_blank">nmccoy@chronicdisease.org</a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Mentor:</span></b><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"> Send cover letter and most recent resume or curriculum vitae to <a href="mailto:nmccoy@chronicdisease.org" target="_blank">nmccoy@chronicdisease.org</a>. </span><span style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Address all letters to John Robitscher, MPH, Chief Executive Officer, National Association of Chronic Disease Directors, ATTN: Epidemiology Mentoring Program, 2200 Century Parkway, Suite 250, Atlanta, GA, 30345. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">NACDD must receive all applications and resumes by <b>midnight, local time, on Friday, August 14, 2015</b>.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Application and supporting documents attached. Information on the CDC-NACDD National Mentorship in Applied Chronic Disease Epidemiology can be accessed online at </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.chronicdisease.org/members/group_content_view.asp?group=128220&id=321462." target="_blank">http://www.chronicdisease.org/members/group_content_view.asp?group=128220&id=321462</a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Access official application announcement online at <a href="http://www.chronicdisease.org/forums/Posts.aspx?topic=1127936&page=1#post_1127936." target="_blank">http://www.chronicdisease.org/forums/Posts.aspx?topic=1127936&page=1#post_1127936</a>. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The CDC and NACDD National Mentorship Program in Applied Chronic Disease Epidemiology serves to enhance state and local capacity through networking and professional development opportunities. This program is supported by a cooperative agreement from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Population Health.</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><u></u><u></u></span></div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-23645359044789067762015-07-15T21:44:00.002-04:002015-12-22T12:17:03.177-05:00Research Committee Selected Articles of the Week, July 13, 2015<html>
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<title>Articles from July_06_2015 </title><h1>
Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of July_06_2015</h1>
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<span style="color: yellow; font-size: 200%;">★</span><span style="color: green; font-size: 150%;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article1"><div class="ex">
Rosanowski S.M., Rogers C.W., Bolwell C.F., Cogger N.
<i>The movement pattern of horses around race meetings in New Zealand
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<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article2"><div class="ex">
Jiang L., Lee V.J., Lim W.Y., Chen M.I., Chen Y., Tan L., Lin R.T., Leo Y.S., Barr I., Cook A.R.
<i>Performance of case definitions for influenza surveillance
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</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article3"><div class="ex">
Hlavinkova L., Kristufkova Z., Mikas J.
<i>Risk factors for severe outcome of cases with pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09
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</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article4"><div class="ex">
Barde P.V., Shukla M.K., Kori B.K., Chand G., Jain L., Varun B.M., Dutta D., Baruah K., Singh N.
<i>Emergence of dengue in tribal villages of Mandla district, Madhya Pradesh, India
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</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article5"><div class="ex">
Davila-Torres J., Chowell G., Borja-Aburto V.H., Viboud C., Grajalez-Muniz C., Miller M.A.
<i>Intense seasonal A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2013-2014
<span style="color: yellow; font-size: 200%;">★</span>
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</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8644413111437271483#article6"><div class="ex">
Boggild A.K., Esposito D.H., Kozarsky P.E., Ansdell V., Beeching N.J., Campion D., Castelli F., Caum
<i>Differential diagnosis of illness in travelers arriving from sierra Leone, Liberia, or guinea: A cross-sectional study from the Geosentinel surveillance network
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</a></li>
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/AN13345" name="article1">'
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The movement pattern of horses around race meetings in New Zealand
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In order to describe the implications of racehorse movement on the potential spread and control of infectious disease in New Zealand, the movement of horses due to regular racing activities needed to be quantified. Race meeting, trainer and starter data we
re collected in 2009 from the governing bodies for the two racing codes in New Zealand; Harness Racing New Zealand and New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing. During 2009, 507 Thoroughbred and 506 Standardbred race meetings were held. A random selection of 42 Sta
ndardbred and 39 Thoroughbred race meetings were taken from all race meetings held in 2009 and the distances travelled by trainers to these race meetings were determined. The trainers attending selected race meetings represented 50% (1135/2287) of all regi
stered trainers in 2009. There was no seasonal pattern of when race meetings were held between racing codes (P ? 0.18) or by race type (P ? 0.83). There were significant differences in the distance travelled by trainers to race meetings, by racing code (P
< 0.001). Thoroughbred trainers travelled a median of 91 km (IQR 40-203 km), while Standardbred trainers travelled a median of 45 km (IQR 24-113 km) (P < 0.001). Within each racing code, trainers travelled further to attend premier races than other types o
f race meetings (P < 0.001). These data demonstrate there is higher potential for more widespread disease dissemination from premier race meetings compared with other types of race meetings. Additionally, lack of a seasonal pattern indicates that a widespr
ead outbreak could occur at any time of the year. Widespread disease dissemination would increase the logistic effort required for effective infectious disease control and has the potential to increase the time required to achieve control. © CSIRO 2015.
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<a href="http://dx.doi.org/" name="article2">'
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<a href="http://dx.doi.org/" name="article2">Performance of case definitions for influenza surveillance
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Influenza-like illness (ILI) case definitions, such as those from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization (WHO) and United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are commonly used for influenza surveill
ance. We assessed how various case definitions performed during the initial wave of influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 infections in Singapore on a cohort of 727 patients with two to three blood samples and whose symptoms were reviewed fortnightly from June to October
2009. Using seroconversion (? 4-fold rise) to A/California/7/2009 (H1N1), we identified 36 presumptive influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 episodes and 664 episodes unrelated to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Cough, fever and headache occurred more commonly in presumptive in
fluenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Although the sensitivity was low (36%), the recently revised WHO ILI case definition gave a higher positive predictive value (42%) and positive likelihood ratio (13.3) than the other case definitions. Results including only episodes w
ith primary care consultations were similar. Individuals who worked or had episodes with fever, cough or sore throat were more likely to consult a physician, while episodes with Saturday onset were less likely, with some consultations skipped or postponed.
Our analysis supports the use of the revised WHO ILI case definition,which includes only cough in the presence of fever defined as body temperature ?38 °C for influenza surveillance. © 2015 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All ri
ghts reserved.
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<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4149/BLL_2015_074" name="article3">'
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<h2>
<div class="ex">
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4149/BLL_2015_074" name="article3">Risk factors for severe outcome of cases with pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09
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<div class="ex">
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to describe demographic, clinical and epidemiological characteristics of cases with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 reported in Slovakia from May 28, 2009 to December 30, 2009 and analyse the
association between risk factors and severe outcome of these cases. BACKGROUND: In the spring of 2009, an outbreak of a pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09, emerged in Mexico and spread globally. Until December 2009, 1,014 cases were notified in Slovakia
. METHODS: The data were collected within national influenza surveillance system. Odds ratios (95% CI) were calculated. Associations were found to be significantly associated with the worse outcome (p < 0.05) in the univariate analysis and were adjusted fo
r possible effects of age and sex by using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Out of the total number of 1,014 cases, 131 (12.9 %) cases were hospitalized, and 43 (4.2 %) of those were admitted to intensive care units. During the reporting period, 38 de
aths were reported, representing a case fatality rate of 3.75 %. The median age of severe cases (35 years, IQR = 29 y) was significantly higher than the median age of mild cases (24 years, IQR = 19 y; p < 0.001). By using a logistic regression, we found ou
t that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (aOR = 9.2; 95%CI: 1.42-59.98), cardiovascular diseases (aOR = 14.97; 95%CI: 5.49-40.79), malignity (aOR = 7.6; 95%CI: 1.95-29.37) and gravidity (aOR = 55.21; 95% CI: 14.40-211.58) were significantly asso
ciated with severe outcomes of the cases. CONCLUSION: The fact, that 35% of severely ill patients did not report any risk factor suggests the importance of vaccination as a prevention of influenza.
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<a href="http://dx.doi.org/" name="article4">'
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<div class="ex">
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/" name="article4">Emergence of dengue in tribal villages of Mandla district, Madhya Pradesh, India
</a></div>
</h2>
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Background & objectives: Dengue (DEN) is a rapidly spreading arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Although it is endemic in India, dengue virus (DENV) infection has not been reported from tribal areas of Madhya Pradesh. Investigations were co
nducted to establish the aetiology of sudden upsurge of cases with febrile illness in June 2013 from tribal villages of Mandla district of Madhya Pradesh, India. Methods: The rapid response team of the National Institute for Research in Tribal Health, Jaba
lpur, conducted clinical investigations and field surveys to collect the samples from suspected cases. Samples were tested using molecular and serological tools. Collected mosquitoes were identified and tested for the presence of virus using semi nested re
verse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (nRT-PCR). The sequences were analysed to identify serotype and genotype of the virus. Results: of the 648 samples collected from 18 villages of Mandla, 321 (49.53%) were found to be positive for dengue. The nR
T-PCR and sequencing confirmed the aetiology as dengue virus type 2. Eighteen per cent of patients needed hospitalization and five deaths were attributed to dengue. The virus was also detected from Aedes aegypti mosquito, which was incriminated as a vector
. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the dengue virus 2 detected belonged to cosmopolitan genotype of the virus. Interpretation & conclusions: Dengue virus serotype 2 was detected as the aetiological agent in the outbreak in tribal villages of Mandla dist
rict of Madhya Pradesh. Conducive man-made environment favouring mosquitogenic conditions and seeding of virus could be the probable reasons for this outbreak. Urgent attention is needed to control this new threat to tribal population, which is already ove
rburdened with other vector borne diseases. © 2015, Indian Council of Medical Research. All rights reserved.
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<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.arcmed.2014.11.005" name="article5">'
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<h2>
<div class="ex">
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.arcmed.2014.11.005" name="article5">Intense seasonal A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2013-2014
</a></div>
</h2>
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<div class="ex">
Background and Aims: A recrudescent wave of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 affected Mexico during the winter of 2013-2014 following a mild 2012-2013 A/H3N2 influenza season. Methods: We compared the demographic and geographic characteristics of hospitalizations
and inpatient deaths for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza during the 2013-2014 influenza season compared to previous influenza seasons, based on a large prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican
Social Security health care system. Results: A total of 14,236 SARI hospitalizations and 1,163 inpatient deaths (8.2%) were reported between October 1, 2013 and March 31, 2014. Rates of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths were significa
ntly higher among individuals aged 30-59years and lower among younger age groups for the 2013-2014 A/H1N1 season compared to the previous A/H1N1 season in 2011-2012 (?2 test, p<0 data-blogger-escaped-.001="" data-blogger-escaped-1.3-1.4="" data-blogger-escaped-2011-2012="" data-blogger-escaped-2013-2014="" data-blogger-escaped-2013-march="" data-blogger-escaped-2014="" data-blogger-escaped-2015="" data-blogger-escaped-a="" data-blogger-escaped-absence="" data-blogger-escaped-activity="" data-blogger-escaped-adults="" data-blogger-escaped-age="" data-blogger-escaped-among="" data-blogger-escaped-and="" data-blogger-escaped-antigenic="" data-blogger-escaped-at="" data-blogger-escaped-build-up="" data-blogger-escaped-but="" data-blogger-escaped-c="" data-blogger-escaped-ce="" data-blogger-escaped-change="" data-blogger-escaped-clear="" data-blogger-escaped-conclusions:="" data-blogger-escaped-deaths="" data-blogger-escaped-disease="" data-blogger-escaped-distribution="" data-blogger-escaped-documented="" data-blogger-escaped-drift="" data-blogger-escaped-during="" data-blogger-escaped-estimated="" data-blogger-escaped-for="" data-blogger-escaped-from="" data-blogger-escaped-globally="" data-blogger-escaped-gradual="" data-blogger-escaped-hospitalizations="" data-blogger-escaped-immunity="" data-blogger-escaped-imss.="" data-blogger-escaped-in2009.="" data-blogger-escaped-in="" data-blogger-escaped-increase="" data-blogger-escaped-infections="" data-blogger-escaped-influenza="" data-blogger-escaped-initial="" data-blogger-escaped-irculating="" data-blogger-escaped-line="" data-blogger-escaped-lower="" data-blogger-escaped-mexico="" data-blogger-escaped-middle-aged="" data-blogger-escaped-ntral="" data-blogger-escaped-number="" data-blogger-escaped-observed="" data-blogger-escaped-october="" data-blogger-escaped-of="" data-blogger-escaped-pandemic="" data-blogger-escaped-pandemics.="" data-blogger-escaped-past="" data-blogger-escaped-period="" data-blogger-escaped-populations="" data-blogger-escaped-post-2009="" data-blogger-escaped-preceding="" data-blogger-escaped-profile="" data-blogger-escaped-proportionate="" data-blogger-escaped-related="" data-blogger-escaped-relative="" data-blogger-escaped-reminiscent="" data-blogger-escaped-reported="" data-blogger-escaped-reproduction="" data-blogger-escaped-season.="" data-blogger-escaped-season="" data-blogger-escaped-severe="" data-blogger-escaped-shift="" data-blogger-escaped-slow="" data-blogger-escaped-substantial="" data-blogger-escaped-suggests="" data-blogger-escaped-than="" data-blogger-escaped-that="" data-blogger-escaped-the="" data-blogger-escaped-to="" data-blogger-escaped-viruses="" data-blogger-escaped-was="" data-blogger-escaped-waves="" data-blogger-escaped-we="" data-blogger-escaped-winter="" data-blogger-escaped-with="" data-blogger-escaped-younger=""><!--0--></div>
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/M15-0074" name="article6">'
</a><br />
<h2>
<div class="ex">
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.7326/M15-0074" name="article6">Differential diagnosis of illness in travelers arriving from sierra Leone, Liberia, or guinea: A cross-sectional study from the Geosentinel surveillance network
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</h2>
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<div class="ex">
Background: The largest-ever outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), ongoing in West Africa since late 2013, has led to export of cases to Europe and North America. Clinicians encountering ill travelers arriving from countries with widespread Ebola virus tr
ansmission must be aware of alternate diagnoses associated with fever and other nonspecific symptoms. Objective: To define the spectrum of illness observed in persons returning from areas of West Africa where EVD transmission has been widespread. Design: D
escriptive, using GeoSentinel records. Setting: 57 travel or tropical medicine clinics in 25 countries. Patients: 805 ill returned travelers and new immigrants from Sierra Leone, Liberia, or Guinea seen between September 2009 and August 2014. Measurements:
Frequencies of demographic and travelrelated characteristics and illnesses reported. Results: The most common specific diagnosis among 770 nonimmigrant travelers was malaria (n = 310 [40.3%]), with Plasmodium falciparum or severe malaria in 267 (86%) and
non-P. falciparum malaria in 43 (14%). Acute diarrhea was the second most common diagnosis among nonimmigrant travelers (n= 95 [12.3%]). Such common diagnoses as upper respiratory tract infection, urinary tract infection, and influenza-like illness occurre
d in only 26, 9, and 7 returning travelers, respectively. Few instances of typhoid fever (n = 8), acute HIV infection (n = 5), and dengue (n = 2) were encountered.
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<a href="https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="color: blue; font-size: 150%;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br />
<a href="https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style="color: blue; font-size: 150%;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info) <b>(*login required)</b> </span> </a>
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</head></html>ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-48010637067313733182015-07-15T21:42:00.001-04:002015-07-15T21:42:16.255-04:00Research Committee Articles of the Week, 06 Jul, 2015<html>
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<title>Articles from July_06_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of July_06_2015</h1>
<div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span><span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Kulkarni M.A., Berrang-Ford L., Buck P.A., Drebot M.A., Lindsay L.R., Ogden N.H.
<i>Major emerging vector-borne zoonotic diseases of public health importance in Canada
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>He D., Lui R., Wang L., Tse C.K., Yang L., Stone L.
<i>Global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in the post-pandemic era
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Han B.A., Schmidt J.P., Bowden S.E., Drake J.M.
<i>Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Arum S.O., Weldon C.W., Orindi B., Landmann T., Tchouassi D.P., Affognon H.D., Sang R.
<i>Distribution and diversity of the vectors of Rift Valley fever along the livestock movement routes in the northeastern and coastal regions of Kenya
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Glass K., Tait P.W., Hanna E.G., Dear K.
<i>Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: A population-level simulation model
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Fanaee-T H., Gama J.
<i>EigenEvent: An algorithm for event detection from complex data streams in syndromic surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Odlum M., Yoon S.
<i>What can we learn about the Ebola outbreak from tweets?
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Purse B.V., Golding N.
<i>Tracking the distribution and impacts of diseases with biological records and distribution modelling
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Ng O.T., Thoon K.C., Chua H.Y., Tan N.W.H., Chong C.Y., Tee N.W.S., Lin R.T.P., Cui L., Venkatachala
<i>Severe pediatric adenovirus 7 disease in singapore linked to recent outbreaks across asia
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Fredrick T., Ponnaiah M., Murhekar M.V., Jayaraman Y., David J.K., Vadivoo S., Joshua V.
<i>Cholera outbreak linked with lack of safe water supply following a tropical cyclone in Pondicherry, India, 2012
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Weber de Melo V., Sheikh Ali H., Freise J., Kuhnert D., Essbauer S., Mertens M., Wanka K.M., Drewes
<i>Spatiotemporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus associated with its rodent host, Myodes glareolus
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Valdez M.K., Sexton J.D., Lutz E.A., Reynolds K.A.
<i>Spread of infectious microbes during emergency medical response
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Dhankhar P., Nwankwo C., Pillsbury M., Lauschke A., Goveia M.G., Acosta C.J., Elbasha E.H.
<i>Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A Vaccination in the United States: A Disease Transmission Dynamic Modeling Approach
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Grilc E., Gale I., Versic A., Zagar T., Socan M.
<i>Drinking water quality and the geospatial distribution of notified gastro-intestinal infections
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Schootman M., Toor A., Cavazos-Rehg P., Jeffe D.B., McQueen A., Eberth J., Davidson N.O.
<i>The utility of Google Trends data to examine interest in cancer screening
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Biswas M.H.A., Haque M.M., Duvvuru G.
<i>A mathematical model for understanding the spread of nipah fever epidemic in Bangladesh
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Chen S.-Y., Feng Y., Chao H.-C., Lai M.-W., Huang W.-L., Lin C.-Y., Tsai C.-N., Chen C.-L., Chiu C.-
<i>Emergence in Taiwan of novel norovirus GII.4 variants causing acute gastroenteritis and intestinal haemorrhage in children
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Shen J.C., Luo L., Li L., Jing Q.L., Ou C.Q., Yang Z.C., Chen X.G.
<i>The impacts of mosquito density and meteorological factors on dengue fever epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: A time-series analysis
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Ratushny V., Smith G.P.
<i>Geographical and temporal correlations in the incidence of lyme disease, RMSF, ehrlichiosis, and coccidioidomycosis with search data
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Hart B.L., Ketai L.
<i>Armies of pestilence: CNS infections as potential weapons of mass destruction
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Shu P., Wang W., Tang M., Do Y.
<i>Numerical identification of epidemic thresholds for susceptible-infectedrecovered model on finite-size networks
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Mialon M., Swinburn B., Sacks G.
<i>A proposed approach to systematically identify and monitor the corporate political activity of the food industry with respect to public health using publicly available informatio
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Mayet A., Duron S., Meynard J.-B., Koeck J.-L., Deparis X., Migliani R.
<i>Surveillance of adverse events following vaccination in the French armed forces, 2011-2012
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Breakwell L., Pringle K., Chea N., Allen D., Allen S., Richards S., Pantones P., Sandoval M., Liu L.
<i>Lack of transmission among close contacts of patient with case of middle east respiratory syndrome imported into the United States, 2014
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Tsui K.L., Chen N., Zhou Q., Hai Y., Wang W.
<i>Prognostics and health management: A review on data driven approaches
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>Jimenez-Jorge S., Pozo F., Larrauri A., de Mateo S., Delgado-Sanz C., Casas I., Garcia-Cenoz M., Cas
<i>Interim influenza vaccine effectiveness: A good proxy for final estimates in Spain in the seasons 2010-2014
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/emi.2015.33
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Major emerging vector-borne zoonotic diseases of public health importance in Canada
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In Canada, the emergence of vector-borne diseases may occur via international movement and subsequent establishment of vectors and pathogens, or via northward spread from endemic areas in the USA. Re-emergence of endemic vector-borne diseases may occur due
to climate-driven changes to their geographic range and ecology. Lyme disease, West Nile virus (WNV), and other vector-borne diseases were identified as priority emerging non-enteric zoonoses in Canada in a prioritization exercise conducted by public heal
th stakeholders in 2013. We review and present the state of knowledge on the public health importance of these high priority emerging vector-borne diseases in Canada. Lyme disease is emerging in Canada due to range expansion of the tick vector, which also
signals concern for the emergence of human granulocytic anaplasmosis, babesiosis, and Powassan virus. WNV has been established in Canada since 2001, with epidemics of varying intensity in following years linked to climatic drivers. Eastern equine encephali
tis virus, Jamestown Canyon virus, snowshoe hare virus, and Cache Valley virus are other mosquito-borne viruses endemic to Canada with the potential for human health impact. Increased surveillance for emerging pathogens and vectors and coordinated efforts
among sectors and jurisdictions will aid in early detection and timely public health response. © 2015 SSCC. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep11013
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in the post-pandemic era
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and January 2015. The data were obtained from Flu
Net, the surveillance network compiled by the the World Health Organization. We report a pattern of skip-and-resurgence behavior between the years 2011 and 2013 for influenza H1N1pdm, the strain responsible for the 2009 pandemic, in Europe and Eastern Asia
. In particular, the expected H1N1pdm epidemic outbreak in 2011/12 failed to occur (or "skipped") in many countries across the globe, although an outbreak occurred in the following year. We also report a pattern of well-synchronized wave of H1N1pdm in earl
y 2011 in the Northern Hemisphere countries, and a pattern of replacement of strain H1N1pre by H1N1pdm between the 2009 and 2012 influenza seasons. Using both a statistical and a mechanistic mathematical model, and through fitting the data of 108 countries
, we discuss the mechanisms that are likely to generate these events taking into account the role of multi-strain dynamics. A basic understanding of these patterns has important public health implications and scientific significance.
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501598112
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The increasing frequency of zoonotic disease events underscores a need to develop forecasting tools toward a more preemptive approach to outbreak investigation. We apply machine learning to data describing the traits and zoonotic pathogen diversity of the
most speciose group of mammals, the rodents, which also comprise a disproportionate number of zoonotic disease reservoirs. Our models predict reservoir status in this group with over 90% accuracy, identifying species with high probabilities of harboring un
discovered zoonotic pathogens based on trait profiles that may serve as rules of thumb to distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoir species. Key predictors of zoonotic reservoirs include biogeographical properties, such as range size, as well as intrinsic h
ost traits associated with lifetime reproductive output. Predicted hotspots of novel rodent reservoir diversity occur in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Midwestern United States. © 2015, National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-0907-1
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Distribution and diversity of the vectors of Rift Valley fever along the livestock movement routes in the northeastern and coastal regions of Kenya
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Knowledge of vector ecology is important in understanding the transmission dynamics of vector borne disease. In this study, we determined the distribution and diversity of mosquitoes along the major nomadic livestock movement routes (LMR) in th
e traditional pastoral ecozone of northeastern Kenya. We focused on the vectors of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFv) with the aim of understanding their ecology and how they can potentially influence the circulation of RVFv. Methods: Mosquito surveys were con
ducted during the short and long rainy seasons from November 2012 to August 2014 using CO<inf>2</inf>-baited CDC light traps at seven sites selected for their proximity to stopover points that provide pasture, water and night bomas (where animals spend nig
hts). We compared mosquito abundance and diversity across the sites, which were located in three ecological zones (IV, V and VI), based on the classification system of agro-ecological zones in Kenya. Results: Over 31,000 mosquitoes were trapped comprising
21 species belonging to 6 genera. Overall mosquito abundance varied significantly by ecological zones and sites. Mansonia species (Ma. uniformis and Ma. africana) were predominant (n?=?12,181, 38.3 %). This was followed by the primary RVF vectors, Ae. ochr
aceus and Ae. mcintoshi comprising 17.9 and 14.98 %, respectively, of the total captures and represented across all sites and ecological zones. The Shannon diversity index ranged from 0.8 to 2.4 with significant zone, site and seasonal variations. There wa
s also significant species richness of RVF vector across ecological zones. Conclusion: Our findings highlight differential occurrence of RVFv vectors across ecological zones and sampling sites, which may be important in determining areas at risk of emergen
ce and circulation of RVFv. Moreover, the vector distribution map along LMR generated in this study will guide potential interventions for control of the disease, including strategic vaccination for livestock
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120505241
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: A population-level simulation model
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drive
rs of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions togethe
r with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain
in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indo
ors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. © 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, S
witzerland.
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/IDA-150734
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">EigenEvent: An algorithm for event detection from complex data streams in syndromic surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Syndromic surveillance systems continuously monitor multiple pre-diagnostic daily streams of indicators from different regions with the aim of early detection of disease outbreaks. The main objective of these systems is to detect outbreaks hours or days be
fore the clinical and laboratory confirmation. The type of data that is being generated via these systems is usually multivariate and seasonal with spatial and temporal dimensions. The algorithm What's Strange About Recent Events (WSARE) is the state-of-th
e-art method for such problems. It exhaustively searches for contrast sets in the multivariate data and signals an alarm when find statistically significant rules. This bottom-up approach presents a much lower detection delay comparing the existing top-dow
n approaches. However, WSARE is very sensitive to the small-scale changes and subsequently comes with a relatively high rate of false alarms. We propose a new approach called EigenEvent that is neither fully top-down nor bottom-up. In this method, we inste
ad of top-down or bottom-up search, track changes in data correlation structure via eigenspace techniques. This new methodology enables us to detect both overall changes (via eigenvalue) and dimension-level changes (via eigenvectors). Experimental results
on hundred sets of benchmark data reveals that EigenEvent presents a better overall performance comparing state-of-the-art, in particular in terms of the false alarm rate. © 2015 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2015.02.023
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">What can we learn about the Ebola outbreak from tweets?
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Twitter can address the challenges of the current Ebola outbreak surveillance. The aims of this study are to demonstrate the use of Twitter as a real-time method of Ebola outbreak surveillance to monitor information spread, capture early epidemi
c detection, and examine content of public knowledge and attitudes. Methods We collected tweets mentioning Ebola in English during the early stage of the current Ebola outbreak from July 24-August 1, 2014. Our analysis for this observational study includes
time series analysis with geologic visualization to observe information dissemination and content analysis using natural language processing to examine public knowledge and attitudes. Results A total of 42,236 tweets (16,499 unique and 25,737 retweets) me
ntioning Ebola were posted and disseminated to 9,362,267,048 people, 63 times higher than the initial number. Tweets started to rise in Nigeria 3-7 days prior to the official announcement of the first probable Ebola case. The topics discussed in tweets inc
lude risk factors, prevention education, disease trends, and compassion. Conclusion Because of the analysis of a unique Twitter dataset captured in the early stage of the current Ebola outbreak, our results provide insight into the intersection of social m
edia and public health outbreak surveillance. Findings demonstrate the usefulness of Twitter mining to inform public health education. © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bij.12567
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Tracking the distribution and impacts of diseases with biological records and distribution modelling
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Species distribution modelling is widely used in epidemiology for mapping spatial patterns and the risk of introduction of diseases and vectors and also for predicting how exposure may alter given future environmental change, motivated by the high societal
impact and the multiple environmental drivers of disease outbreaks. Although pathogens and vectors have historically been sparsely recorded, monitoring systems and media sources are generating novel, online data sources on occurrence. Moreover, increasing
ecological realism is being incorporated into distribution modelling techniques, focussing on dispersal, biotic interactions and evolutionary constraints that shape species distributions alongside abiotic factors and biases in recording effort, common to
pathogens and vectors and wildlife species. Considering pathogens and arthropod vector systems with high impact on plant, animal and human health, the present review describes how biological records for vectors and pathogens arise, introduces the concepts
behind distribution models and illustrates the potential for ecologically realistic distribution models to yield insight into the establishment and spread of pathogens. Because distribution modellers aim to provide policy makers with evidence and maps for
planning and evaluation of disease mitigation measures, we highlight factors that currently constrain direct translation of models to policy. Disease distributions will be better understood and mapped in the future given improved occurrence data access and
integration and combined (correlative and mechanistic) modelling approaches that are developed iteratively in concert with stakeholders. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London.
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2107.141443
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Severe pediatric adenovirus 7 disease in singapore linked to recent outbreaks across asia
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
During November 2012–July 2013, a marked increase of adenovirus type 7 (Ad7) infections associated with severe disease was documented among pediatric patients in Singapore. Phylogenetic analysis revealed close genetic links with severe Ad7 outbreaks in Ch
ina, Taiwan, and other parts of Asia. © 2015, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Cholera outbreak linked with lack of safe water supply following a tropical cyclone in Pondicherry, India, 2012
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In the aftermath of a severe cyclonic storm on 7 January 2012, a cluster of acute diarrhoea cases was reported from two localities in Pondicherry, Southern India. We investigated the outbreak to identify causes and recommend control measures. We defined a
case as occurrence of diarrhoea of more than three loose stools per day with or without vomiting in a resident of affected areas during 6-18 January 2012. We used active (door-to-door survey) and stimulated passive (healthy facility-based) surveillance to
identify cases. We described the outbreak by time, place, and person. We compared the case-patients with up to three controls without any apparent signs and symptoms of diarrhoea and matched for age, gender, and neighbourhood. We calculated matched odds ra
tio (MOR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and population attributable fractions (PAF). We collected rectal swabs and water samples for laboratory diagnosis and tested water samples for microbiological quality. We identified 921 cases and one death among 8,
367 residents (attack rate: 11%, case-fatality: 0.1%). The attack rate was the highest among persons of 50 years and above (14%) and females (12%). The outbreak started on 6 January and peaked on the 9th and lasted till 14 January. Cases were clustered aro
und two major leakages in water supply system. Nine of the 16 stool samples yielded V. cholerae O1 Ogawa. We identified that consumption of water from the public distribution system (MOR=37, 95% CI 4.9-285, PAF: 97%), drinking unboiled water (MOR=35, 95% C
I 4.5-269, PAF: 97%), and a common latrine used by two or more households (MOR=2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.6) were independently associated with cholera. Epidemiological evidence suggested that this outbreak was due to ingestion of water contaminated by drainage fol
lowing rains during cyclone. We recommended repair of the water supply lines, cleaning-up of the drains, handwashing, and drinking of boiled water. © International Centre For Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bang
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/eva.12263
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Spatiotemporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus associated with its rodent host, Myodes glareolus
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Many viruses significantly impact human and animal health. Understanding the population dynamics of these viruses and their hosts can provide important insights for epidemiology and virus evolution. Puumala virus (PUUV) is a European hantavirus that may ca
use regional outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of PUUV circulating in local populations of its rodent reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) during eight years. Phylogeneti
c and population genetic analyses of all three genome segments of PUUV showed strong geographical structuring at a very local scale. There was a high temporal turnover of virus strains in the local bank vole populations, but several virus strains persisted
through multiple years. Phylodynamic analyses showed no significant changes in the local effective population sizes of PUUV, although vole numbers and virus prevalence fluctuated widely. Microsatellite data demonstrated also a temporally persisting subdiv
ision between local vole populations, but these groups did not correspond to the subdivision in the virus strains. We conclude that restricted transmission between vole populations and genetic drift play important roles in shaping the genetic structure and
temporal dynamics of PUUV in its natural host which has several implications for zoonotic risks of the human population. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2015.02.025
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Spread of infectious microbes during emergency medical response
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background To our knowledge, no studies to date demonstrate potential spread of microbes during actual emergency medical service (EMS) activities. Our study introduces a novel approach to identification of contributors to EMS environment contamination and
development of infection control strategies, using a bacteriophage surrogate for pathogenic organisms. Methods Bacteriophage ?X174 was used to trace cross-contamination and evaluate current disinfection practices and a hydrogen peroxide (H<inf>2</inf>O<inf
>2</inf>) wipe intervention within emergency response vehicles. Prior to EMS calls, 2 surfaces were seeded with ?X174. On call completion, EMS vehicle and equipment surfaces were sampled before decontamination, after decontamination per current practices,
and after implementation of the intervention. Results Current decontamination practices did not significantly reduce viral loads on surfaces (P =.3113), but H<inf>2</inf>O<inf>2</inf> wipe intervention did (P =.0065). Bacteriophage spread to 56% (27/48) of
sites and was reduced to 54% (26/48) and 40% (19/48) with current decontamination practices and intervention practices, respectively. Conclusion Results suggest firefighters' hands were the main vehicles of microbial transfer. Current practices were not c
onsistently applied or standardized and minimally reduced prevalence and quantity of microbial contamination on EMS surfaces. Although use of a consistent protocol of H<inf>2</inf>O<inf>2</inf> wipes significantly reduced percent prevalence and concentrati
on of viruses, training and promotion of surface disinfection should be provided. © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2015.02.004
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A Vaccination in the United States: A Disease Transmission Dynamic Modeling Approach
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Abstract Objective To assess the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States. Methods We developed an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to evaluate two policies
of administering a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine to children aged 12 to 18 months: 1) universal routine vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in 2006 and 2) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices's previous reg
ional policy of routine vaccination of children living in states with high hepatitis A incidence. Inputs were obtained from the published literature, public sources, and clinical trial data. The model was fitted to hepatitis A seroprevalence (National Heal
th and Nutrition Examination Survey II and III) and reported incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (1980-1995). We used a societal perspective and projected costs (in 2013 US $), quality-adjusted life-years, incremental cost-e
ffectiveness ratio, and other outcomes over the period 2006 to 2106. Results On average, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination prevented 259,776 additional infections, 167,094 outpatient visits, 4781 hospitalizations, and 228 deaths annually. Compared
with the regional vaccination policy, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination was cost saving. In scenario analysis, universal vaccination prevented 94,957 infections, 46,179 outpatient visits, 1286 hospitalizations, and 15 deaths annually and had an inc
remental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,223/quality-adjusted life-year when herd protection was ignored. Conclusions Our model predicted that universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination led to significant reductions in hepatitis A mortality and morbidity.
Consequently, universal vaccination was cost saving compared with a regional vaccination policy. Herd protection effects of hepatitis A vaccination programs had a significant impact on hepatitis A mortality,
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/sjph-2015-0028
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Drinking water quality and the geospatial distribution of notified gastro-intestinal infections
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Introduction. Even brief episodes of fecal contamination of drinking water can lead directly to illness in the consumers. In water-borne outbreaks, the connection between poor microbial water quality and disease can be quickly identified. The impact of non
-compliant drinking water samples due to E. coli taken for regular monitoring on the incidence of notified acute gastrointestinal infections has not yet been studied. Methods. The objective of this study was to analyse the geographical distribution of noti
fied acute gastrointestinal infections (AGI) in Slovenia in 2010, with hotspot identification. The second aim of the study was to correlate the fecal contamination of water supply system on the settlement level with the distribution of notified AGI cases.
Spatial analysis using geo-information technology and other methods were used. Results. Hot spots with the highest proportion of notified AGI cases were mainly identified in areas with small supply zones. The risk for getting AGI was drinking water contami
nated with E. coli from supply zones with 50-1000 users: RR was 1.25 and significantly greater than one (p-value less than 0.001). Conclusion. This study showed the correlation between the frequency of notified AGI cases and noncompliant results in drinkin
g water monitoring. © Slovenian Journal of Public Health 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006678
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The utility of Google Trends data to examine interest in cancer screening
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objectives: We examined the utility of January 2004 to April 2014 Google Trends data from information searches for cancer screenings and preparations as a complement to population screening data, which are traditionally estimated through costly population-
level surveys. Setting: State-level data across the USA. Participants: Persons who searched for terms related to cancer screening using Google, and persons who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Primary and secondary ou
tcome measures: (1) State-level Google Trends data, providing relative search volume (RSV) data scaled to the highest search proportion per week (RSV100) for search terms over time since 2004 and across different geographical locations. (2) RSV of new scre
ening tests, free/low-cost screening for breast and colorectal cancer, and new preparations for colonoscopy (Prepopik). (3) State-level breast, cervical, colorectal and prostate cancer screening rates. Results: Correlations between Google Trends and BRFSS
data ranged from 0.55 for ever having had a colonoscopy to 0.14 for having a Pap smear within the past 3 years. Free/low-cost mammography and colonoscopy showed higher RSV during their respective cancer awareness months. RSV for Miralax remained stable, wh
ile interest in Prepopik increased over time. RSV for lung cancer screening, virtual colonoscopy and three-dimensional mammography was low. Conclusions: Google Trends data provides enormous scientific possibilities, but are not a suitable substitute for, b
ut may complement, traditional data collection and analysis about cancer screening and related interests. © BMJ Open 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/IEOM.2015.7093861
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A mathematical model for understanding the spread of nipah fever epidemic in Bangladesh
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this paper, a mathematical model for the nipah virus (NiV) infections, commonly known as 'nipah fever' in Bangladesh is proposed. The host-pathogen interaction of NiV infection in terms of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is studied. The
aim is to investigate the disease propagation and control strategy of NiV infections. The behavior of the dynamics of NiV infections as well as the optimal control strategy has been studied in vein of optimal control theory and the results are presented w
ith an illustration by the numerical simulations. © 2015 IEEE.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1099/jmm.0.000046
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Emergence in Taiwan of novel norovirus GII.4 variants causing acute gastroenteritis and intestinal haemorrhage in children
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Norovirus is the leading cause of viral gastroenteritis globally. Norovirus genotype GII.4 is responsible for the majority of outbreaks, but new variants are continuously emerging. The objective of the study was to delineate the clinical manifestations and
complications associated with these new norovirus GII.4 variants in children. We investigated norovirus infections from the community outbreak in October 2011–September 2012 and an earlier outbreak in 2006–2007, in northern Taiwan. Norovirus genotypes and
their variants were validated using molecular methods. A norovirus outbreak started in mid-2011 and continued through 2012 in northern Taiwan. Hospitalized children infected by norovirus in 2012 showed a significantly higher incidence of intestinal haemor
rhage, as indicated by grossly bloody faeces (P50.012) and occult blood in faeces (P=0.001), and also presented with more high fever>39 °C (P<0.001), fever.38.5 °C (P<0.001) and fever of any temperature.38 °C (P<0.001), compared with children hospitalized
in 2006–2007. Analysis of 20 near-full-length genome sequences indicated an emergence of GII.4 2012 variants in 2011–2012. Circulating noroviruses can be divided into two clusters: GII.4 2012a, which is identical to the newly reported strain GII.4 Sydney 2
012, and GII.4 2012b, which is close to GII.4 2006b, the earlier predominant strain. The emerging new variants of norovirus GII.4 caused a distinct clinical syndrome of acute gastroenteritis with severe fever and a high rate of intestinal haemorrhage in ch
ildren. The genetic diversity associated with changing clinical manifestations poses major obstacles to norovirus control. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3967/bes2015.046
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The impacts of mosquito density and meteorological factors on dengue fever epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: A time-series analysis
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objective To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China.1 Methods The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index (BI), and meteorological measures during
2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. Results A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in G
uangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature (T<inf>ave</inf>), previous month's minimum temperature (T<inf>min</inf>), an
d T<inf>ave</inf> were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's T<inf>min</inf> and DF incidence. Conclusion Mosquito density, T<inf>ave</inf>, and T<inf>min</inf> play a cri
tical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic. © 2015 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmen
tal Sciences.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/jid.2015.93
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Geographical and temporal correlations in the incidence of lyme disease, RMSF, ehrlichiosis, and coccidioidomycosis with search data
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">[No abstract available]
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3174/ajnr.A4177
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Armies of pestilence: CNS infections as potential weapons of mass destruction
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Infectious agents have been investigated, developed, and used by both governments and terrorist groups as weapons of mass destruction. CNS infections, though traditionally considered less often than respiratory diseases in this scenario, may be very import
ant. Viruses responsible for encephalitides can be highly infectious in aerosol form. CNS involvement in anthrax is ominous but should change treatment. Brucellosis, plague, Q fever, and other bacteria can uncommonly manifest with meningoencephalitis and o
ther findings. Emerging diseases may also pose threats. We review infectious agents of particular concern for purposes of biowarfare with respect to CNS manifestations and imaging features.
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4922153
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Numerical identification of epidemic thresholds for susceptible-infectedrecovered model on finite-size networks
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Epidemic threshold has always been a very hot topic for studying epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The previous studies have provided different theoretical predictions of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, but t
he numerical verification of these theoretical predictions is still lacking. Considering that the large fluctuation of the outbreak size occurs near the epidemic threshold, we propose a novel numerical identification method of SIR epidemic threshold by ana
lyzing the peak of the epidemic variability. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that the variability measure can successfully give the numerical threshold for the SIR model. The heterogeneous mean-field prediction agrees
very well with the numerical threshold, except the case that the networks are disassortative, in which the quenched mean-field prediction is relatively close to the numerical threshold. Moreover, the numerical method presented is also suitable for the sus
ceptible-infected-susceptible model. This work helps to verify the theoretical analysis of epidemic threshold and would promote further studies on the phase transition of epidemic dynamics. © 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/obr.12289
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A proposed approach to systematically identify and monitor the corporate political activity of the food industry with respect to public health using publicly available informatio
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Unhealthy diets represent one of the major risk factors for non-communicable diseases. There is currently a risk that the political influence of the food industry results in public health policies that do not adequately balance public and commercial intere
sts. This paper aims to develop a framework for categorizing the corporate political activity of the food industry with respect to public health and proposes an approach to systematically identify and monitor it. The proposed framework includes six strateg
ies used by the food industry to influence public health policies and outcomes: information and messaging; financial incentive; constituency building; legal; policy substitution; opposition fragmentation and destabilization. The corporate political activit
y of the food industry could be identified and monitored through publicly available data sourced from the industry itself, governments, the media and other sources. Steps for country-level monitoring include identification of key food industry actors and r
elated sources of information, followed by systematic data collection and analysis of relevant documents, using the proposed framework as a basis for classification of results. The proposed monitoring approach should be pilot tested in different countries
as part of efforts to increase the transparency and accountability of the food industry. This approach has the potential to help redress any imbalance of interests and thereby contribute to the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases. © 2015 Wo
rld Obesity.
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2015.03.003
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Surveillance of adverse events following vaccination in the French armed forces, 2011-2012
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objectives: French military personnel are subject to a compulsory vaccination schedule. The aim of this study was to present the results of surveillance of vaccine adverse events (VAEs) reported from 2011 to 2012 in the French armed forces. Study design: V
AEs were surveyed among all French armed forces from 2011 to 2012 by the epidemiological departments of the military health service. For each case, a notification form providing patient and clinical information was provided. Methods: Case definitions were
derived from the French drug safety guidelines. Three types of VAE were considered: non-serious, serious and unexpected. Incidence rates were calculated by relating VAEs to the number of vaccine doses delivered. Results: In total, 161 VAE cases were report
ed. The overall VAE reporting rate was 24.6 VAEs per 100,000 doses, and the serious VAE rate was 1.3 per 100,000 doses (nine cases). The serious VAEs included two cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, one case of optic neuritis, one case of a meningeal-like sy
ndrome, one case of rheumatoid purpura, one case of acute asthma and three cases of fainting. The highest rates of VAE were observed with the Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) (482.3 per 100,000 doses), inactivated diphtheria-tetanus-poliovirus with ac
ellular pertussis vaccine (dTap-IPV) (106.1 per 100,000 doses) and meningococcal quadrivalent glycoconjugate vaccine (MenACWY-CRM) (39.3 per 100,000 doses). Conclusions: The global rates of VAE observed in 2011 and 2012 confirm the increase that has been o
bserved since 2009 in the French armed forces, which could reflect improved practitioner awareness about VAEs and the use of certain vaccines added to the vaccination schedule recently (dTap-IPV in 2008 and MenACWY-CRM in 2010). VAEs appear to be relativel
y rare, particularly serious VAEs, which indicates acceptable tolerance of vaccines. © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health.
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2107.150054
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Lack of transmission among close contacts of patient with case of middle east respiratory syndrome imported into the United States, 2014
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In May 2014, a traveler from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was the first person identified with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection in the United States. To evaluate transmission risk, we determined the type, duration, and frequ
ency of patient contact among health care personnel (HCP), household, and community contacts by using standard questionnaires and, for HCP, global positioning system (GPS) tracer tag logs. Respiratory and serum samples from all contacts were tested for MER
S-CoV. Of 61 identified contacts, 56 were interviewed. HCP exposures occurred most frequently in the emergency department (69%) and among nurses (47%); some HCP had contact with respiratory secretions. Household and community contacts had brief contact (e.
g., hugging). All laboratory test results were negative for MERS-CoV. This contact investigation found no secondary cases, despite case-patient contact by 61 persons, and provides useful information about MERS-CoV transmission risk. Compared with GPS trace
r tag recordings, self-reported contact may not be as accurate © 2015, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/793161
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Prognostics and health management: A review on data driven approaches
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a framework that offers comprehensive yet individualized solutions for managing system health. In recent years, PHM has emerged as an essential approach for achieving competitive advantages in the global market by
improving reliability, maintainability, safety, and affordability. Concepts and components in PHM have been developed separately in many areas such as mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, and statistical science, under varied names. In this pap
er, we provide a concise review of mainstream methods in major aspects of the PHM framework, including the updated research from both statistical science and engineering, with a focus on data-driven approaches. Real world examples have been provided to ill
ustrate the implementation of PHM in practice. © 2015 Kwok L. Tsui et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.03.051
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Interim influenza vaccine effectiveness: A good proxy for final estimates in Spain in the seasons 2010-2014
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Introduction: The agreement between interim and final influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates would support the use of interim assessments as a proxy for final VE results to guide health authorities in influenza prevention. We aimed to compare inter
im/final VE estimates in Spain. Methods: We used a test-negative case-control study (cycEVA) for 2010/11-2013/14 seasons. Sensitivity analyses were carried out by type/subtype of influenza virus and by target groups for vaccination. Results: In general, in
terim estimates were higher compared to end-season estimates. Interim and final VE differences were higher for the target groups compared to all population. Subtype-specific interim/final VE estimates showed greater concordance (3-13%) than for any virus (
7-24%). Conclusion: In Spain, interim influenza VE estimates over 2010-2014 were a good proxy of the final protection of the vaccine. Interim and final estimates showed greater concordance for all population and if performed subtype-specific. © 2015 Elsevi
er Ltd.
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br><a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style=
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<head>ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-61191536635551932942015-07-06T11:09:00.001-04:002015-07-06T11:41:41.613-04:00Register for the CSTE BRFSS Small Area Estimation Webinar!<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">
CSTE will be hosting a BRFSS small areas estimation webinar on <b>Thursday, July 16th at 1pm ET. </b>This<b> </b>training will be focused on the concept of small area estimation, its uses and limitations, and will illustrate how survey data are used to produce estimates for areas that do not have a sufficient sample size for direct estimation. Please refer to the attached one pager for a full summary of the webinar.</div>
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Please use the link below to register for this webinar. To maximize the number of attendees, we encourage those of you in one office to have one person register and share the viewing space with other colleagues.<u></u><u></u></div>
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Topic: CSTE BRFSS Small Area Estimation Webinar<br />
Host: Nidal Kram<br />
Date: Thursday, July 16, 2015<br />
Time: 1:00 pm, Eastern Daylight Time (New York, GMT-04:00)<br />
Session number: Not Available<br />
Registration password: This session does not require a registration password.<br />
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Go to <a href="https://cste.webex.com/cste/k2/j.php?MTID=t89168b19a3a9cd11fcfebb18a24d649a" target="_blank">https://cste.webex.com/cste/k2/j.php?MTID=t89168b19a3a9cd11fcfebb18a24d649a</a> and register.<br />
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-53620414401898899732015-06-29T16:43:00.001-04:002015-06-29T16:46:31.785-04:00NAHDO Webinar: SAS tool to support ICD-9/10 Transition<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="content_LETTER.BLOCK18" style="font-family: Helvetica; width: 100%px;"><tbody>
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<a alt="http://www.syndromic.org" class="imgCaptionAnchor" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001lDFNJPy90D5OTXaqPIB655k_BBCfC8le6uG6G_eaOfHXDg7bj8nPqDhDio72QKLhqe5vHG9IInNL2VJhKaxzwlCuZb205NT0gys7I8LLJksW9Cadt6ye-dQV4IJvWzeeQQIZW4rmq8ozKaOMG3Plqz2AoLULxTTV5C3bG5bKzLw=&c=cFd01nGZb8K_9VbW-FwTMK-Sg0PYjEQJWCZDu0PbQ1rQhbW4XbWPKw==&ch=meR0r2M4LVbrxER9wNqeJ66iAGtlp1kWiWzCfoHgyW_zVQTfQUa_uQ==" shape="rect" target="_blank" track="on"><img align="left" border="0" src="http://files.ctctcdn.com/2e8f39ae001/68b12590-7220-4dd1-863a-df346f756fbd.jpg" height="145" hspace="0" name="ACCOUNT.IMAGE.488" style="display: block; height: auto !important; max-width: 100% !important;" vspace="0" width="250" /></a></div>
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<b>SAS tool to support ICD-9/10 Transition</b></div>
<div class="p1">
Join us for a webinar on Jul 15, 2015 at 12:00 PM MDT.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><a alt="https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7844601315395019265" href="http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001lDFNJPy90D5OTXaqPIB655k_BBCfC8le6uG6G_eaOfHXDg7bj8nPqMWcShTxkzHa2rMkGCk0onoVU8BZPMXcuU5u8m-PFyffrZfK6N0Yy1pN9D9Lc8YRU7Aiod9Kj5Fqs4D-r2U8O9G27AsTUGB2wMgbtAPsB2hXVA-onWgvpCCYrE34y_8d16ZPlZ7DYH3QbQqTpMMjkp81ga-_oBvbgsCH__R9_-xr&c=cFd01nGZb8K_9VbW-FwTMK-Sg0PYjEQJWCZDu0PbQ1rQhbW4XbWPKw==&ch=meR0r2M4LVbrxER9wNqeJ66iAGtlp1kWiWzCfoHgyW_zVQTfQUa_uQ==" linktype="1" shape="rect" style="color: blue;" target="_blank" track="on">Register now!</a></b></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
The adoption of ICD-10-CM/PCS is effective October 1, 2015 for medical claims. Public health programs that obtain data from multiple data sources may receive data in overlapping time periods without clear indication of which coding scheme (ICD-9 or ICD-10) was used. </div>
<div class="p1">
<br />
Some data reporting entities are not covered by HIPAA and may not switch to ICD-10-CM on 10/1/2015 and some data reporting entities may choose to implement ICD-10-CM before 10/1/2015, given no prohibition against doing so. </div>
<div class="p1">
<br />
To help programs and data users identify which coding scheme is used, the University of California at Davis (UCD) developed a SAS program.<br />
<br />
Conversion Tool to the ICD-9 CM to ICD-10 CM Transition is made possible through funding from the Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology and Laboratory Services (CSELS) within the Office of Public Health Scientific Services (OPHSS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).</div>
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After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.</div>
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Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-76236160153239753302015-06-22T22:50:00.001-04:002015-06-22T22:51:09.443-04:00Research Committee Articles of the week, Jun 22, 2015<html>
<head>
<style>p.ex { width: 800;}.indented { padding-left: 50; padding-right: 50; }</style>
<title>Articles from June_22_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of June_22_2015</h1><div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span><span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Lee J., Jung E.
<i>A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>Liu M., Zhang Z., Zhang D.
<i>A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Willem L., Stijven S., Tijskens E., Beutels P., Hens N., Broeckhove J.
<i>Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Badenhorst M., Page P., Ganswindt A., Laver P., Guthrie A., Schulman M.
<i>Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Wells C., Yamin D., Ndeffo-Mbah M.L., Wenzel N., Gaffney S.G., Townsend J.P., Meyers L.A., Fallah M.
<i>Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Sang S., Gu S., Bi P., Yang W., Yang Z., Xu L., Yang J., Liu X., Jiang T., Wu H., Chu C., Liu Q.
<i>Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Ahmed S.S., Oviedo-Orta E., Mekaru S.R., Freifeld C.C., Tougas G., Brownstein J.S.
<i>Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Kesorn K., Ongruk P., Chompoosri J., Phumee A., Thavara U., Tawatsin A., Siriyasatien P.
<i>Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Ibanez-Justicia A., Cianci D.
<i>Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Rodriguez-Prieto V., Vicente-Rubiano M., Sanchez-Matamoros A., Rubio-Guerri C., Melero M., Martinez-
<i>Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Hickmann K.S., Fairchild G., Priedhorsky R., Generous N., Hyman J.M., Deshpande A., Del Valle S.Y.
<i>Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Paul M.M., Greene C.M., Newton-Dame R., Thorpe L.E., Perlman S.E., McVeigh K.H., Gourevitch M.N.
<i>The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Brookes V.J., Hernandez-Jover M., Black P.F., Ward M.P.
<i>Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Tinguely J., Lindemann J.
<i>Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Green H.K., Zhao H., Boddington N.L., Andrews N., Durnall H., Elliot A.J., Smith G., Gorton R., Dona
<i>Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Nakao J.H., Pringle J., Jones R.W., Nix B.E., Borders J., Heseltine G., Gomez T.M., McCluskey B., Ro
<i>'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Weng W., Ni S.
<i>Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Rachah A., Torres D.F.M.
<i>Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Von Dobschuetz S., De Nardi M., Harris K.A., Munoz O., Breed A.C., Wieland B., Dauphin G., Lubroth J
<i>Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Yom-Tov E., Johansson-Cox I., Lampos V., Hayward A.C.
<i>Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Morato D.G., Barreto F.R., Braga J.U., Natividade M.S., da Costa M.C.N., Morato V., Da Teixeira M.G.
<i>The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Watson C.H., Edmunds W.J.
<i>A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Huang Q.S., Turner N., Baker M.G., Williamson D.A., Wong C., Webby R., Widdowson M.-A., Aley D., Ban
<i>Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Hassanian-Moghaddam H., Nikfarjam A., Mirafzal A., Saberinia A., Nasehi A.A., Masoumi Asl H., Memary
<i>Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Zhao B., Qin S., Teng Z., Chen J., Yu X., Gao Y., Shen J., Cui X., Zeng M., Zhang X.
<i>Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>Dugas A.F., Valsamakis A., Atreya M.R., Thind K., Alarcon Manchego P., Faisal A., Gaydos C.A., Rothm
<i>Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article27><p class = 'ex'>Acosta A.M., DeBolt C., Tasslimi A., Lewis M., Stewart L.K., Misegades L.K., Messonnier N.E., Clark
<i>Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article28><p class = 'ex'>Wolff G., Bell M., Escobar J., Ruiz S.
<i>Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article29><p class = 'ex'>Roberts-Witteveen A., Reinten T., Christensen A., Sintchenko V., Seale P., Lowbridge C.
<i>Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</p></a></i></li>
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.05.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
We developed a spatial-temporal model of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), which is located in the north-west of South Korea and is the second-most complex metropolitan area worldwide. This multi-patch influenza model
consists of a SEIAR influenza transmission model and flow model between two districts. This model is based on the daily confirmed cases of A/H1N1 influenza collected by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention from April 27 to September 15, 200
9 and the daily commuting data from 33 districts of SMA reported in the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC). We analyzed the spread patterns of 2009 influenza in the SMA by the reproductive numbers and geographic information systems. During the early
period of novel influenza pandemics, when pharmaceutical interventions are lacking, non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will be the most critical strategies for impeding the spread of influenza and delaying an epidemic. Using the spatial-tempora
l model developed herein, we also investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions, isolation and/or commuting restrictions, on the incidence reduction in various scenarios. Our model provides scientific evidence for predicting the
spread of disease and preparedness for a future pandemic. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this paper, we develop a unique time-varying forecasting model for dynamic demand of medical resources based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) influenza diffusion model. In this forecasting mechanism, medical resources allocated in the
early period will take effect in subduing the spread of influenza and thus impact the demand in the later period. We adopt a discrete time-space network to describe the medical resources allocation process following a hypothetical influenza outbreak in a r
egion. The entire medical resources allocation process is constructed as a multi-stage integer programming problem. At each stage, we solve a cost minimization sub-problem subject to the time-varying demand. The corresponding optimal allocation result is t
hen used as an input to the control process of influenza spread, which in turn determines the demand for the next stage. In addition, we present a comparison between the proposed model and an empirical model. Our results could help decision makers prepare
for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources dynamically. © 2015 Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12859-015-0612-2
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential o
f current high-performance workstations. Results: We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simu
lation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing
disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26 % up to more than 70 %. We have investigat
ed the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large differen
ce. Conclusions: Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease
propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance. © 2015 Willem et a
l.; licensee BioMed Central.
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0443-4
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: The prevalence of equine herpesvirus types-1 and -4 (EHV-1 and -4) in South African Thoroughbreds at auction sales is currently undefined. Commingling of young Thoroughbreds from various populations together with physiological stress related to
their transport and confinement at a sales complex, may be associated with shedding and transmission of EHV-1 and -4. This prospective cohort study sampled 90 young Thoroughbreds consigned from eight farms, originating from three provinces representative
of the South African Thoroughbred breeding demographic to a sales complex. Nasal swabs for quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay to detect EHV-1 and -4 nucleic acid and blood samples for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for EHV-1 a
nd -4 antibodies were collected from all horses on arrival and departure. Additional nasal swabs for qPCR were obtained serially from those displaying pyrexia and, or nasal discharge. Daily faecal samples were used for determination of faecal glucocorticoi
d metabolite (FGM) concentrations as a measurement of physiological stress and these values were modelled to determine the factors best explaining FGM variability. Results: EHV-4 nucleic acid was detected in 14.4 % and EHV-1 from none of the animals in the
study population. Most (93.3 %) and very few (1.1 %) of this population showed antibodies indicating prior exposure to EHV-4 and EHV-1 respectively. Pyrexia and nasal discharge were poor predictors for detecting EHV-4 nucleic acid. The horses' FGM concent
rations increased following arrival before decreasing for most of the remaining study period including the auction process. Model averaging showed that variation in FGM concentrations was best explained by days post-arrival and transport duration. Conclusi
ons: In this study population, sales consignment was associated with limited detection of EHV-4 nucleic acid in nasal secretions, with most showing prior exposure to EHV-4 and very few to EHV-1. The physiolog
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003794
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy can
didate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine
. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest tha
t if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benef
it of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring
vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts. © 2015 Wells et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003808
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak
hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimu
m temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on
loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized
Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported
cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend.
Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system. © 2015 Sang et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127406
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise e
arlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due
to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides) by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States. Methods: Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data cap
tured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap) and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs). Findings: HealthMap N. meningitides
monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement
with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of pote
ntial outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities. Conclusions: The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological
trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0125049
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they ar
e applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the suppo
rt vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings: Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data
integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosqu
itoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast th
e high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, an
d these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions: The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate p
arameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-0865-7
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in
mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Nether
lands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Methods: Random forest models were used to link the
occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The enviro
nmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validat
ed. Results: The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and N
orth Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were impo
rtant for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. Conclusions: The areas identified by the model as suitable and with
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400212X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surv
eillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66).
The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40)
were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will
be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential applicatio
n of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasona
l influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strat
egies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently ge
neral to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine wher
e the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The r
esults show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not
account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/pop.2014.0093
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Electronic health records (EHRs) are transforming the practice of clinical medicine, but the extent to which they are being harnessed to advance public health goals remains uncertain. Data extracted from integrated EHR networks offer the potential for almo
st real-time determination of the health status of populations in care, for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations, and for monitoring the impact of such initiatives over time. This is especially true in ambulatory care settings, which are uniqu
ely suited for monitoring population health indicators including risk factors and disease management indicators associated with chronic diseases. As efforts gather steam to integrate health data across delivery systems, large networks of electronic patient
information are increasingly emerging. Few of the national population health surveillance systems that rely on EHR data have progressed beyond laying groundwork to launch and maintain EHR-based surveillance, but a limited number of more focused or local e
fforts have demonstrated innovation in population health surveillance. Common challenges include incompleteness of population coverage, lack of interoperability across data systems, and variable data quality. This review defines progress, opportunities, an
d challenges in using EHR data for population health surveillance. © Copyright 2015, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400315X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these chan
ges is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how
these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipat
e drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs-using transparent and repeatable methods-based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocatio
n for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration o
f these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Recent reports of serious infection outbreaks internationally remind us of the importance of accurate information and continual vigilance. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has captured headlines as the most severe outbreak in the history of this disease.
West Nile disease, measles, pertussis and tuberculosis infect South Dakota patients on a yearly basis. A significant rise in syphilis cases has prompted recommendations for increased prenatal screening. The more unusual viral diseases, Ebola, Middle East r
espiratory syndrome (MERS) and Chikungunha virus, receive media attention but present minimal risk to the state, while the annual influenza epidemic continues to plague us all. We review these infections, both old and emerging, and describe national and lo
cal preparedness practices.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu046
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the on
set of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. Methods An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-c
onfirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. Results National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following
national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were ab
le to monitor the subnational impact. Conclusions Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness
of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published b
y Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000151
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Human salmonellosis linked to contact with live poultry is an increasing public health concern. In 2012, eight unrelated outbreaks of human salmonellosis linked to live poultry contact resulted in 517 illnesses. In July 2012, PulseNet, a national molecular
surveillance network, reported a multistate cluster of a rare strain of Salmonella Braenderup infections which we investigated. We defined a case as infection with the outbreak strain, determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, with illness onset fro
m 25 July 2012-27 February 2013. Ill persons and mail-order hatchery (MOH) owners were interviewed using standardized questionnaires. Traceback and environmental investigations were conducted. We identified 48 cases in 24 states. Twenty-six (81%) of 32 ill
persons reported live poultry contact in the week before illness; case-patients named 12 different MOHs from eight states. The investigation identified hatchery D as the ultimate poultry source. Sampling at hatchery D yielded the outbreak strain. Hatchery
D improved sanitation procedures and pest control; subsequent sampling failed to yield Salmonella. This outbreak highlights the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and the environment and the importance of industry knowledge and involvement in solving
complex outbreaks. Preventing these infections requires a 'One Health' approach that leverages expertise in human, animal, and environmental health. © 2015 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0037549715581637
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The world is still in heightened awareness of the potential threat of another influenza pandemic, although it has been 5 years since the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Evaluation of the adopted intervention strategies for handling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic
is helpful for dealing with future outbreaks. In this paper we developed a hybrid model combining meta-population and agent-based models to evaluate the containment and mitigation strategies (e.g., contact tracing and quarantine of contacts at assembly si
tes in the early phase, more medical institutions to detect cases and treat serious patients in the developing phase, and rapid vaccines delivered to students first) for an H1N1 pandemic that were adopted in China. We find that the presented model can retr
ospectively fit relatively well to the spreading progress through comparison of the simulation results with actual infections data, and it can be used for practical application in evaluating the containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza pandem
ic if model validation and parameter estimation can be conducted by using actual data. The results will contribute to understanding the spread of viruses and the control of infectious diseases, and to helping government officials create policies on handlin
g an influenza pandemic, especially beneficial to a large and diverse country such as the People's Republic of China. © 2015 The Author(s).
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/842792
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to m
odelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validat
e the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, w
e apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method. © 2015 Amira Rachah and Delfim F. M. Torres.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002106
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A survey of national animal influenza surveillance programmes was conducted to assess the current capacity to detect influenza viruses with zoonotic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that can be naturally transmitted between animals and hu
mans) at regional and global levels. Information on 587 animal influenza surveillance system components was collected for 99 countries from Chief Veterinary Officers (CVOs) (n = 94) and published literature. Less than 1% (n = 4) of these components were sp
ecifically aimed at detecting influenza viruses with pandemic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that are capable of causing epidemic spread in human populations over large geographical regions or worldwide), which would have zoonotic poten
tial as a prerequisite. Those countries that sought to detect influenza viruses with pandemic potential searched for such viruses exclusively in domestic pigs. This work shows the global need for increasing surveillance that targets potentially zoonotic in
fluenza viruses in relevant animal species. © 2014 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12321
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objectives: Knowledge of the secondary attack rate (SAR) and serial interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations. Here,
we propose a method for estimating the intrafamily SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members. Design: We analyze data
from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians. Results: We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to t
he appearance of specific strains of the virus and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition, we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2·41 days for 2012 and 2·48 days for 2013. C
onclusions: The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near-real-time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-0276140388
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in
2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidem
ic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was ident
ified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly redu
ce the magnitude of dengue epidemics. © 2015 Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.013
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decisi
on making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health
burden.Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination s
uggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncer
tainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity.Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to W
HO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine effic
acy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection.Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-se
tting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no econo
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12315
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for improved scientific knowledge to support better pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (S
HIVERS) project, a 5-year (2012-2016) multiagency and multidisciplinary collaboration, aimed to measure disease burden, epidemiology, aetiology, risk factors, immunology, effectiveness of vaccination and other prevention strategies for influenza and other
respiratory infectious diseases of public health importance. Two active, prospective, population-based surveillance systems were established for monitoring influenza and other respiratory pathogens among those hospitalized patients with acute respiratory i
llness and those enrolled patients seeking consultations at sentinel general practices. In 2015, a sero-epidemiological study will use a sample of patients from the same practices. These data will provide a full picture of the disease burden and risk facto
rs from asymptomatic infections to severe hospitalized disease and deaths and related economic burden. The results during the first 2 years (2012-2013) provided scientific evidence to (a) support a change to NZ's vaccination policy for young children due t
o high influenza hospitalizations in these children; (b) contribute to the revision of the World Health Organization's case definition for severe acute respiratory illness for global influenza surveillance; and (c) contribute in part to vaccine strain sele
ction using vaccine effectiveness assessment in the prevention of influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations. In summary, SHIVERS provides valuable international platforms for supporting seasonal influenza control and pandemic preparedness, and r
esponding to other emerging/endemic respiratory-related infections. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu038
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background There are no guidelines addressing the public health aspects of methanol poisoning during larger outbreaks. The current study was done to discuss the role of active case finding and a national guideline that organizes all available resources acc
ording to a triage strategy in the successful management of a methanol mass poisoning in Rafsanjan, Iran, in May 2013. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed reviewing the outbreak Emergency Operation Center files. The objectives were
to describe the characteristics, management and outcome of a methanol outbreak using Active Case Finding to trace the victims. Results A total of 694 patients presented to emergency departments in Rafsanjan after public announcement of the outbreak between
29th May and 3rd June 2013. The announcement was mainly performed via short message service (SMS) and local radio broadcasting. A total of 361 cases were observed and managed in Rafsanjan and 333 were transferred to other cities. Seventy-five and 100 pati
ents underwent hemodialysis (HD), retrospectively. The main indication for HD was refractory metabolic acidosis. Eight patients expired due to the intoxication. Except for the deceased cases, no serum methanol level was available. Conclusion In developing
countries, where diagnostic resources are limited, use of active case finding and developing national guidelines can help in the management of large outbreaks of methanol poisonings. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of
Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2015.03.009
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A new quadrivalent influenza vaccine has been available for influenza B, which can pose a significant global health burden. Shanghai has the highest GDP and largest metropolitan population in China. To understand the impact of influenza B in Shanghai in te
rms of age-related incidence and relative prevalence compared with other subtypes, we conducted this retrospective epidemiological study of influenza B in the 2009-2014 seasons. A total of 71 354 outpatients with influenza-like illness were included, and b
oth lineages of influenza B and subtypes of influenza A were identified using real-time RT-PCR. The antigenic characteristics of influenza B isolates were analysed by sequencing and reciprocal haemagglutinin inhibition assay. On average, 33.45% of influenz
a strains were influenza B, and 40.20% of strains isolated from children were influenza B. The incidence of influenza B was highest (12.52 per 100 people with influenza-like illness) in children ages 6-17 years and usually peaked in this age group at the e
arly stage of an influenza B epidemic. Overall, both matched and mismatched influenza B strains co-circulated in Shanghai annually, and 44.57% of the circulating influenza B belonged to the opposite lineage of the vaccine strains. We concluded that influen
za B has caused a substantial impact in Shanghai and that school-aged children play a key role in the transmission of influenza B. Hence, it may be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children to mitigate the outbreaks of influen
za B. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2015.03.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Timely and accurate diagnosis of influenza remains a challenge but is critical for patients who may benefit from antiviral therapy. This study determined the test characteristics of provider diagnosis of influenza, final ED electronic medical re
cord (EMR) diagnosis of influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) in patients recommended to receive antiviral treatment according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. In addition, we evaluated the compliance with CDC antiviral
guidelines. Methods A prospective cohort of adults presenting to a tertiary care ED with an acute respiratory illness who met CDC criteria for recommended antiviral treatment were enrolled and tested for influenza. A clinical diagnosis of influenza was as
sessed by asking the clinician: "Do you think this patient has influenza?" Influenza-like illness was defined according to current CDC criteria. Results In this cohort of 270 subjects, 42 (16%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11%-20%) had influenza. Clinicia
n diagnosis had a sensitivity of 36% (95% CI, 22%-52%) and specificity of 78% (95% CI, 72%-83%); EMR final ED diagnosis had a sensitivity of 26% (95% CI, 14%-42%) and specificity of 97% (95% CI, 94%-99%); ILI had a sensitivity of 31% (95% CI, 18%-47%) and
specificity of 88% (95% CI, 83%-92%). Only 15 influenza-positive patients (36%) received antiviral treatment. Conclusion Clinician diagnosis, final ED EMR diagnosis, and ILI have low sensitivity for diagnosing influenza, and there is overall poor complianc
e with CDC antiviral treatment recommendations. Improved methods of influenza diagnosis are needed to help guide management in the clinical setting. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article27" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.2014-3358
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
BACKGROUND: Acellular pertussis vaccines replaced whole-cell vaccines for the 5-dose childhood vaccination series in 1997. A sixth dose of pertussis-containing vaccine, tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis, adsorbed (Tdap), wa
s recommended in 2005 for adolescents and adults. Studies examining Tdap vaccine effectiveness (VE) among adolescents who have received all acellular vaccines are limited. METHODS: To assess Tdap VE and duration of protection, we conducted a matched case-c
ontrol study during the 2012 pertussis epidemic in Washington among adolescents born during 1993-2000. All pertussis cases reported from January 1 through June 30, 2012, in 7 counties were included; 3 controls were matched by primary provider clinic and bi
rth year to each case. Vaccination histories were obtained through medical records, the state immunization registry, and parent interviews. Participants were classified by type of pertussis vaccine received on the basis of birth year: a mix of whole-cell a
nd acellular vaccines (1993-1997) or all acellular vaccines (1998-2000). We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios comparing Tdap receipt between cases and controls. RESULTS: Among adolescents who received all acellular vaccines (450
cases, 1246 controls), overall Tdap VE was 63.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 50% to 74%). VE within 1 year of vaccination was 73% (95% CI: 60% to 82%). At 2 to 4 years postvaccination, VE declined to 34% (95% CI: -0.03% to 58%). CONCLUSIONS: Tdap prote
ction wanes within 2 to 4 years. Lack of long-term protection after vaccination is likely contributing to increases in pertussis among adolescents. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
</A></p>
<A name="article28" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.084
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Pertussis vaccination compliance is critical for reduction in the prevalence of disease; however, the current acellular pertussis vaccine may not provide sufficient protection from infection. This study examined acellular pertussis vaccine effe
ctiveness (VE) for Air Force dependents less than 12 years of age. Methods: We conducted a case-control study among Air Force pediatric dependents from 2011 to 2013, comparing cases with positive pertussis test results to controls who received the same lab
tests with a negative result. Our study population was categorized by age group and vaccination status based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended pertussis vaccination schedule. VE was calculated with respect to vaccination status
and pertussis lab results. Results: We compared 27 pertussis laboratory positive cases with 974 pertussis laboratory negative controls, 2 months to <12 years old. Comparing completely vaccinated to non-vaccinated patients, the overall VE was 78.3% (95% co
nfidence interval (CI): 48.6, 90.8; p<. 0.001). VE was highest among those 15 months to <6 years old: 97.6% (95% CI: 78.5, 99.7; p<. 0.001). Children 6 to <12 years old had the lowest VE: 48.5% (95% CI: -74.0, 84.7; p= 0.28). Comparing partially vaccinated
patients to nonvaccinated patients yielded 64.2% (95% CI: -7.2, 88.1; p= 0.06) overall VE. Conclusions: Acellular pertussis vaccination was effective at preventing laboratory confirmed pertussis among our Air Force pediatric dependent population, with hig
hest protection among completely vaccinated, young children. Older children received the lowest amount of protection. Partial vaccination had near significant protection. Our overall calculated pertussis VE corroborates other pertussis VE studies looking a
t similar age groups. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article29" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.14.0575
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
SETTING : The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens the ongoing control of tuberculosis (TB). The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has low TB and MDR-TB incidence. OBJ ECT IVE : To examine the epidemiology and the clinic
al and public health management of MDR-TB in NSW. DESIGN : A retrospective case-series analysis of MDRTB diagnosed in NSW between 1999 and 2010 was undertaken. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect information from the public health surveillance
system, medical records and the State Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory about clinical features, drug susceptibility, treatment regimens, hospitalisation, risk factors for tuberculous infection, contact tracing and patient outcomes. RESULTS : Fifty-five
cases of culture-confirmed MDRTB, including two cases of extensively drug-resistant TB, were diagnosed. All cases were reviewed by an expert management panel. Fifty cases (91%) were foreign-born, and 50 cases (91%) had fully supervised treatment. Of the 55
cases, 46 (84%) successfully completed treatment, 3 (5%) died of TB and 3 (5%) required surgery. No MDR-TB cases were reported among contacts. CONCLUSION: Using a multidisciplinary, expert guided, case-management approach, the NSW TB Control Program achie
ved excellent MDR-TB outcomes. The impact of global increases in MDR-TB requires sustained commitment to TB in all settings. © 2015 The Union.
</A></p>
<H2><p class = "ex">
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br><a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style=
"font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info) <b>(*login required)<br></b> </span> </a>
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<head>
ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-10381848734790652482015-06-15T23:00:00.000-04:002015-06-22T23:05:59.740-04:00Research Articles of the Week, Jun 15, 2015<html>
<head>
<style>p.ex { width: 800;}.indented { padding-left: 50; padding-right: 50; }</style>
<title>Articles from June_15_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of June_15_2015</h1>
<div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span><span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Lee J., Jung E.
<i>A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>Liu M., Zhang Z., Zhang D.
<i>A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Willem L., Stijven S., Tijskens E., Beutels P., Hens N., Broeckhove J.
<i>Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Badenhorst M., Page P., Ganswindt A., Laver P., Guthrie A., Schulman M.
<i>Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Wells C., Yamin D., Ndeffo-Mbah M.L., Wenzel N., Gaffney S.G., Townsend J.P., Meyers L.A., Fallah M.
<i>Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Sang S., Gu S., Bi P., Yang W., Yang Z., Xu L., Yang J., Liu X., Jiang T., Wu H., Chu C., Liu Q.
<i>Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Ahmed S.S., Oviedo-Orta E., Mekaru S.R., Freifeld C.C., Tougas G., Brownstein J.S.
<i>Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Kesorn K., Ongruk P., Chompoosri J., Phumee A., Thavara U., Tawatsin A., Siriyasatien P.
<i>Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Ibanez-Justicia A., Cianci D.
<i>Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Rodriguez-Prieto V., Vicente-Rubiano M., Sanchez-Matamoros A., Rubio-Guerri C., Melero M., Martinez-
<i>Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Hickmann K.S., Fairchild G., Priedhorsky R., Generous N., Hyman J.M., Deshpande A., Del Valle S.Y.
<i>Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Paul M.M., Greene C.M., Newton-Dame R., Thorpe L.E., Perlman S.E., McVeigh K.H., Gourevitch M.N.
<i>The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Brookes V.J., Hernandez-Jover M., Black P.F., Ward M.P.
<i>Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Tinguely J., Lindemann J.
<i>Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Green H.K., Zhao H., Boddington N.L., Andrews N., Durnall H., Elliot A.J., Smith G., Gorton R., Dona
<i>Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Nakao J.H., Pringle J., Jones R.W., Nix B.E., Borders J., Heseltine G., Gomez T.M., McCluskey B., Ro
<i>'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Weng W., Ni S.
<i>Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Rachah A., Torres D.F.M.
<i>Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Von Dobschuetz S., De Nardi M., Harris K.A., Munoz O., Breed A.C., Wieland B., Dauphin G., Lubroth J
<i>Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Yom-Tov E., Johansson-Cox I., Lampos V., Hayward A.C.
<i>Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Morato D.G., Barreto F.R., Braga J.U., Natividade M.S., da Costa M.C.N., Morato V., Da Teixeira M.G.
<i>The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Watson C.H., Edmunds W.J.
<i>A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Huang Q.S., Turner N., Baker M.G., Williamson D.A., Wong C., Webby R., Widdowson M.-A., Aley D., Ban
<i>Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Hassanian-Moghaddam H., Nikfarjam A., Mirafzal A., Saberinia A., Nasehi A.A., Masoumi Asl H., Memary
<i>Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Zhao B., Qin S., Teng Z., Chen J., Yu X., Gao Y., Shen J., Cui X., Zeng M., Zhang X.
<i>Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>Dugas A.F., Valsamakis A., Atreya M.R., Thind K., Alarcon Manchego P., Faisal A., Gaydos C.A., Rothm
<i>Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article27><p class = 'ex'>Acosta A.M., DeBolt C., Tasslimi A., Lewis M., Stewart L.K., Misegades L.K., Messonnier N.E., Clark
<i>Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article28><p class = 'ex'>Wolff G., Bell M., Escobar J., Ruiz S.
<i>Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article29><p class = 'ex'>Roberts-Witteveen A., Reinten T., Christensen A., Sintchenko V., Seale P., Lowbridge C.
<i>Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.05.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
We developed a spatial-temporal model of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), which is located in the north-west of South Korea and is the second-most complex metropolitan area worldwide. This multi-patch influenza model
consists of a SEIAR influenza transmission model and flow model between two districts. This model is based on the daily confirmed cases of A/H1N1 influenza collected by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention from April 27 to September 15, 200
9 and the daily commuting data from 33 districts of SMA reported in the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC). We analyzed the spread patterns of 2009 influenza in the SMA by the reproductive numbers and geographic information systems. During the early
period of novel influenza pandemics, when pharmaceutical interventions are lacking, non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will be the most critical strategies for impeding the spread of influenza and delaying an epidemic. Using the spatial-tempora
l model developed herein, we also investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions, isolation and/or commuting restrictions, on the incidence reduction in various scenarios. Our model provides scientific evidence for predicting the
spread of disease and preparedness for a future pandemic. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this paper, we develop a unique time-varying forecasting model for dynamic demand of medical resources based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) influenza diffusion model. In this forecasting mechanism, medical resources allocated in the
early period will take effect in subduing the spread of influenza and thus impact the demand in the later period. We adopt a discrete time-space network to describe the medical resources allocation process following a hypothetical influenza outbreak in a r
egion. The entire medical resources allocation process is constructed as a multi-stage integer programming problem. At each stage, we solve a cost minimization sub-problem subject to the time-varying demand. The corresponding optimal allocation result is t
hen used as an input to the control process of influenza spread, which in turn determines the demand for the next stage. In addition, we present a comparison between the proposed model and an empirical model. Our results could help decision makers prepare
for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources dynamically. © 2015 Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12859-015-0612-2
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential o
f current high-performance workstations. Results: We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simu
lation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing
disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26 % up to more than 70 %. We have investigat
ed the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large differen
ce. Conclusions: Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease
propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance. © 2015 Willem et a
l.; licensee BioMed Central.
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0443-4
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: The prevalence of equine herpesvirus types-1 and -4 (EHV-1 and -4) in South African Thoroughbreds at auction sales is currently undefined. Commingling of young Thoroughbreds from various populations together with physiological stress related to
their transport and confinement at a sales complex, may be associated with shedding and transmission of EHV-1 and -4. This prospective cohort study sampled 90 young Thoroughbreds consigned from eight farms, originating from three provinces representative
of the South African Thoroughbred breeding demographic to a sales complex. Nasal swabs for quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay to detect EHV-1 and -4 nucleic acid and blood samples for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for EHV-1 a
nd -4 antibodies were collected from all horses on arrival and departure. Additional nasal swabs for qPCR were obtained serially from those displaying pyrexia and, or nasal discharge. Daily faecal samples were used for determination of faecal glucocorticoi
d metabolite (FGM) concentrations as a measurement of physiological stress and these values were modelled to determine the factors best explaining FGM variability. Results: EHV-4 nucleic acid was detected in 14.4 % and EHV-1 from none of the animals in the
study population. Most (93.3 %) and very few (1.1 %) of this population showed antibodies indicating prior exposure to EHV-4 and EHV-1 respectively. Pyrexia and nasal discharge were poor predictors for detecting EHV-4 nucleic acid. The horses' FGM concent
rations increased following arrival before decreasing for most of the remaining study period including the auction process. Model averaging showed that variation in FGM concentrations was best explained by days post-arrival and transport duration. Conclusi
ons: In this study population, sales consignment was associated with limited detection of EHV-4 nucleic acid in nasal secretions, with most showing prior exposure to EHV-4 and very few to EHV-1. The physiolog
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003794
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy can
didate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine
. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest tha
t if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benef
it of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring
vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts. © 2015 Wells et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003808
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak
hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimu
m temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on
loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized
Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported
cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend.
Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system. © 2015 Sang et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127406
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise e
arlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due
to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides) by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States. Methods: Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data cap
tured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap) and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs). Findings: HealthMap N. meningitides
monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement
with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of pote
ntial outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities. Conclusions: The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological
trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0125049
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they ar
e applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the suppo
rt vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings: Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data
integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosqu
itoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast th
e high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, an
d these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions: The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate p
arameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-0865-7
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in
mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Nether
lands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Methods: Random forest models were used to link the
occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The enviro
nmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validat
ed. Results: The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and N
orth Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were impo
rtant for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. Conclusions: The areas identified by the model as suitable and with
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400212X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surv
eillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66).
The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40)
were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will
be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential applicatio
n of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasona
l influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strat
egies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently ge
neral to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine wher
e the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The r
esults show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not
account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/pop.2014.0093
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Electronic health records (EHRs) are transforming the practice of clinical medicine, but the extent to which they are being harnessed to advance public health goals remains uncertain. Data extracted from integrated EHR networks offer the potential for almo
st real-time determination of the health status of populations in care, for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations, and for monitoring the impact of such initiatives over time. This is especially true in ambulatory care settings, which are uniqu
ely suited for monitoring population health indicators including risk factors and disease management indicators associated with chronic diseases. As efforts gather steam to integrate health data across delivery systems, large networks of electronic patient
information are increasingly emerging. Few of the national population health surveillance systems that rely on EHR data have progressed beyond laying groundwork to launch and maintain EHR-based surveillance, but a limited number of more focused or local e
fforts have demonstrated innovation in population health surveillance. Common challenges include incompleteness of population coverage, lack of interoperability across data systems, and variable data quality. This review defines progress, opportunities, an
d challenges in using EHR data for population health surveillance. © Copyright 2015, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400315X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these chan
ges is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how
these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipat
e drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs-using transparent and repeatable methods-based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocatio
n for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration o
f these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Recent reports of serious infection outbreaks internationally remind us of the importance of accurate information and continual vigilance. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has captured headlines as the most severe outbreak in the history of this disease.
West Nile disease, measles, pertussis and tuberculosis infect South Dakota patients on a yearly basis. A significant rise in syphilis cases has prompted recommendations for increased prenatal screening. The more unusual viral diseases, Ebola, Middle East r
espiratory syndrome (MERS) and Chikungunha virus, receive media attention but present minimal risk to the state, while the annual influenza epidemic continues to plague us all. We review these infections, both old and emerging, and describe national and lo
cal preparedness practices.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu046
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the on
set of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. Methods An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-c
onfirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. Results National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following
national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were ab
le to monitor the subnational impact. Conclusions Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness
of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published b
y Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000151
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Human salmonellosis linked to contact with live poultry is an increasing public health concern. In 2012, eight unrelated outbreaks of human salmonellosis linked to live poultry contact resulted in 517 illnesses. In July 2012, PulseNet, a national molecular
surveillance network, reported a multistate cluster of a rare strain of Salmonella Braenderup infections which we investigated. We defined a case as infection with the outbreak strain, determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, with illness onset fro
m 25 July 2012-27 February 2013. Ill persons and mail-order hatchery (MOH) owners were interviewed using standardized questionnaires. Traceback and environmental investigations were conducted. We identified 48 cases in 24 states. Twenty-six (81%) of 32 ill
persons reported live poultry contact in the week before illness; case-patients named 12 different MOHs from eight states. The investigation identified hatchery D as the ultimate poultry source. Sampling at hatchery D yielded the outbreak strain. Hatchery
D improved sanitation procedures and pest control; subsequent sampling failed to yield Salmonella. This outbreak highlights the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and the environment and the importance of industry knowledge and involvement in solving
complex outbreaks. Preventing these infections requires a 'One Health' approach that leverages expertise in human, animal, and environmental health. © 2015 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0037549715581637
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The world is still in heightened awareness of the potential threat of another influenza pandemic, although it has been 5 years since the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Evaluation of the adopted intervention strategies for handling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic
is helpful for dealing with future outbreaks. In this paper we developed a hybrid model combining meta-population and agent-based models to evaluate the containment and mitigation strategies (e.g., contact tracing and quarantine of contacts at assembly si
tes in the early phase, more medical institutions to detect cases and treat serious patients in the developing phase, and rapid vaccines delivered to students first) for an H1N1 pandemic that were adopted in China. We find that the presented model can retr
ospectively fit relatively well to the spreading progress through comparison of the simulation results with actual infections data, and it can be used for practical application in evaluating the containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza pandem
ic if model validation and parameter estimation can be conducted by using actual data. The results will contribute to understanding the spread of viruses and the control of infectious diseases, and to helping government officials create policies on handlin
g an influenza pandemic, especially beneficial to a large and diverse country such as the People's Republic of China. © 2015 The Author(s).
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/842792
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to m
odelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validat
e the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, w
e apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method. © 2015 Amira Rachah and Delfim F. M. Torres.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002106
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A survey of national animal influenza surveillance programmes was conducted to assess the current capacity to detect influenza viruses with zoonotic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that can be naturally transmitted between animals and hu
mans) at regional and global levels. Information on 587 animal influenza surveillance system components was collected for 99 countries from Chief Veterinary Officers (CVOs) (n = 94) and published literature. Less than 1% (n = 4) of these components were sp
ecifically aimed at detecting influenza viruses with pandemic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that are capable of causing epidemic spread in human populations over large geographical regions or worldwide), which would have zoonotic poten
tial as a prerequisite. Those countries that sought to detect influenza viruses with pandemic potential searched for such viruses exclusively in domestic pigs. This work shows the global need for increasing surveillance that targets potentially zoonotic in
fluenza viruses in relevant animal species. © 2014 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12321
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objectives: Knowledge of the secondary attack rate (SAR) and serial interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations. Here,
we propose a method for estimating the intrafamily SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members. Design: We analyze data
from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians. Results: We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to t
he appearance of specific strains of the virus and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition, we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2·41 days for 2012 and 2·48 days for 2013. C
onclusions: The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near-real-time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-0276140388
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in
2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidem
ic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was ident
ified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly redu
ce the magnitude of dengue epidemics. © 2015 Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.013
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decisi
on making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health
burden.Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination s
uggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncer
tainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity.Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to W
HO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine effic
acy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection.Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-se
tting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no econo
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12315
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for improved scientific knowledge to support better pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (S
HIVERS) project, a 5-year (2012-2016) multiagency and multidisciplinary collaboration, aimed to measure disease burden, epidemiology, aetiology, risk factors, immunology, effectiveness of vaccination and other prevention strategies for influenza and other
respiratory infectious diseases of public health importance. Two active, prospective, population-based surveillance systems were established for monitoring influenza and other respiratory pathogens among those hospitalized patients with acute respiratory i
llness and those enrolled patients seeking consultations at sentinel general practices. In 2015, a sero-epidemiological study will use a sample of patients from the same practices. These data will provide a full picture of the disease burden and risk facto
rs from asymptomatic infections to severe hospitalized disease and deaths and related economic burden. The results during the first 2 years (2012-2013) provided scientific evidence to (a) support a change to NZ's vaccination policy for young children due t
o high influenza hospitalizations in these children; (b) contribute to the revision of the World Health Organization's case definition for severe acute respiratory illness for global influenza surveillance; and (c) contribute in part to vaccine strain sele
ction using vaccine effectiveness assessment in the prevention of influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations. In summary, SHIVERS provides valuable international platforms for supporting seasonal influenza control and pandemic preparedness, and r
esponding to other emerging/endemic respiratory-related infections. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu038
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background There are no guidelines addressing the public health aspects of methanol poisoning during larger outbreaks. The current study was done to discuss the role of active case finding and a national guideline that organizes all available resources acc
ording to a triage strategy in the successful management of a methanol mass poisoning in Rafsanjan, Iran, in May 2013. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed reviewing the outbreak Emergency Operation Center files. The objectives were
to describe the characteristics, management and outcome of a methanol outbreak using Active Case Finding to trace the victims. Results A total of 694 patients presented to emergency departments in Rafsanjan after public announcement of the outbreak between
29th May and 3rd June 2013. The announcement was mainly performed via short message service (SMS) and local radio broadcasting. A total of 361 cases were observed and managed in Rafsanjan and 333 were transferred to other cities. Seventy-five and 100 pati
ents underwent hemodialysis (HD), retrospectively. The main indication for HD was refractory metabolic acidosis. Eight patients expired due to the intoxication. Except for the deceased cases, no serum methanol level was available. Conclusion In developing
countries, where diagnostic resources are limited, use of active case finding and developing national guidelines can help in the management of large outbreaks of methanol poisonings. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of
Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2015.03.009
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A new quadrivalent influenza vaccine has been available for influenza B, which can pose a significant global health burden. Shanghai has the highest GDP and largest metropolitan population in China. To understand the impact of influenza B in Shanghai in te
rms of age-related incidence and relative prevalence compared with other subtypes, we conducted this retrospective epidemiological study of influenza B in the 2009-2014 seasons. A total of 71 354 outpatients with influenza-like illness were included, and b
oth lineages of influenza B and subtypes of influenza A were identified using real-time RT-PCR. The antigenic characteristics of influenza B isolates were analysed by sequencing and reciprocal haemagglutinin inhibition assay. On average, 33.45% of influenz
a strains were influenza B, and 40.20% of strains isolated from children were influenza B. The incidence of influenza B was highest (12.52 per 100 people with influenza-like illness) in children ages 6-17 years and usually peaked in this age group at the e
arly stage of an influenza B epidemic. Overall, both matched and mismatched influenza B strains co-circulated in Shanghai annually, and 44.57% of the circulating influenza B belonged to the opposite lineage of the vaccine strains. We concluded that influen
za B has caused a substantial impact in Shanghai and that school-aged children play a key role in the transmission of influenza B. Hence, it may be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children to mitigate the outbreaks of influen
za B. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2015.03.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Timely and accurate diagnosis of influenza remains a challenge but is critical for patients who may benefit from antiviral therapy. This study determined the test characteristics of provider diagnosis of influenza, final ED electronic medical re
cord (EMR) diagnosis of influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) in patients recommended to receive antiviral treatment according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. In addition, we evaluated the compliance with CDC antiviral
guidelines. Methods A prospective cohort of adults presenting to a tertiary care ED with an acute respiratory illness who met CDC criteria for recommended antiviral treatment were enrolled and tested for influenza. A clinical diagnosis of influenza was as
sessed by asking the clinician: "Do you think this patient has influenza?" Influenza-like illness was defined according to current CDC criteria. Results In this cohort of 270 subjects, 42 (16%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11%-20%) had influenza. Clinicia
n diagnosis had a sensitivity of 36% (95% CI, 22%-52%) and specificity of 78% (95% CI, 72%-83%); EMR final ED diagnosis had a sensitivity of 26% (95% CI, 14%-42%) and specificity of 97% (95% CI, 94%-99%); ILI had a sensitivity of 31% (95% CI, 18%-47%) and
specificity of 88% (95% CI, 83%-92%). Only 15 influenza-positive patients (36%) received antiviral treatment. Conclusion Clinician diagnosis, final ED EMR diagnosis, and ILI have low sensitivity for diagnosing influenza, and there is overall poor complianc
e with CDC antiviral treatment recommendations. Improved methods of influenza diagnosis are needed to help guide management in the clinical setting. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article27" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.2014-3358
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
BACKGROUND: Acellular pertussis vaccines replaced whole-cell vaccines for the 5-dose childhood vaccination series in 1997. A sixth dose of pertussis-containing vaccine, tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis, adsorbed (Tdap), wa
s recommended in 2005 for adolescents and adults. Studies examining Tdap vaccine effectiveness (VE) among adolescents who have received all acellular vaccines are limited. METHODS: To assess Tdap VE and duration of protection, we conducted a matched case-c
ontrol study during the 2012 pertussis epidemic in Washington among adolescents born during 1993-2000. All pertussis cases reported from January 1 through June 30, 2012, in 7 counties were included; 3 controls were matched by primary provider clinic and bi
rth year to each case. Vaccination histories were obtained through medical records, the state immunization registry, and parent interviews. Participants were classified by type of pertussis vaccine received on the basis of birth year: a mix of whole-cell a
nd acellular vaccines (1993-1997) or all acellular vaccines (1998-2000). We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios comparing Tdap receipt between cases and controls. RESULTS: Among adolescents who received all acellular vaccines (450
cases, 1246 controls), overall Tdap VE was 63.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 50% to 74%). VE within 1 year of vaccination was 73% (95% CI: 60% to 82%). At 2 to 4 years postvaccination, VE declined to 34% (95% CI: -0.03% to 58%). CONCLUSIONS: Tdap prote
ction wanes within 2 to 4 years. Lack of long-term protection after vaccination is likely contributing to increases in pertussis among adolescents. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
</A></p>
<A name="article28" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.084
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Pertussis vaccination compliance is critical for reduction in the prevalence of disease; however, the current acellular pertussis vaccine may not provide sufficient protection from infection. This study examined acellular pertussis vaccine effe
ctiveness (VE) for Air Force dependents less than 12 years of age. Methods: We conducted a case-control study among Air Force pediatric dependents from 2011 to 2013, comparing cases with positive pertussis test results to controls who received the same lab
tests with a negative result. Our study population was categorized by age group and vaccination status based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended pertussis vaccination schedule. VE was calculated with respect to vaccination status
and pertussis lab results. Results: We compared 27 pertussis laboratory positive cases with 974 pertussis laboratory negative controls, 2 months to <12 years old. Comparing completely vaccinated to non-vaccinated patients, the overall VE was 78.3% (95% co
nfidence interval (CI): 48.6, 90.8; p<. 0.001). VE was highest among those 15 months to <6 years old: 97.6% (95% CI: 78.5, 99.7; p<. 0.001). Children 6 to <12 years old had the lowest VE: 48.5% (95% CI: -74.0, 84.7; p= 0.28). Comparing partially vaccinated
patients to nonvaccinated patients yielded 64.2% (95% CI: -7.2, 88.1; p= 0.06) overall VE. Conclusions: Acellular pertussis vaccination was effective at preventing laboratory confirmed pertussis among our Air Force pediatric dependent population, with hig
hest protection among completely vaccinated, young children. Older children received the lowest amount of protection. Partial vaccination had near significant protection. Our overall calculated pertussis VE corroborates other pertussis VE studies looking a
t similar age groups. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article29" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.14.0575
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
SETTING : The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens the ongoing control of tuberculosis (TB). The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has low TB and MDR-TB incidence. OBJ ECT IVE : To examine the epidemiology and the clinic
al and public health management of MDR-TB in NSW. DESIGN : A retrospective case-series analysis of MDRTB diagnosed in NSW between 1999 and 2010 was undertaken. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect information from the public health surveillance
system, medical records and the State Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory about clinical features, drug susceptibility, treatment regimens, hospitalisation, risk factors for tuberculous infection, contact tracing and patient outcomes. RESULTS : Fifty-five
cases of culture-confirmed MDRTB, including two cases of extensively drug-resistant TB, were diagnosed. All cases were reviewed by an expert management panel. Fifty cases (91%) were foreign-born, and 50 cases (91%) had fully supervised treatment. Of the 55
cases, 46 (84%) successfully completed treatment, 3 (5%) died of TB and 3 (5%) required surgery. No MDR-TB cases were reported among contacts. CONCLUSION: Using a multidisciplinary, expert guided, case-management approach, the NSW TB Control Program achie
ved excellent MDR-TB outcomes. The impact of global increases in MDR-TB requires sustained commitment to TB in all settings. © 2015 The Union.
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br><a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style=
"font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info) <b>(*login required)<br></b> </span> </a>
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<head>ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-88732826671026680652015-06-01T23:04:00.000-04:002015-06-22T23:05:48.965-04:00Research Articles of the Week, Jun 01, 2015<html>
<head>
<style>p.ex { width: 800;}.indented { padding-left: 50; padding-right: 50; }</style>
<title>Articles from June_01_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of June_01_2015</h1>
<div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span><span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Lee J., Jung E.
<i>A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>Liu M., Zhang Z., Zhang D.
<i>A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Willem L., Stijven S., Tijskens E., Beutels P., Hens N., Broeckhove J.
<i>Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Badenhorst M., Page P., Ganswindt A., Laver P., Guthrie A., Schulman M.
<i>Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Wells C., Yamin D., Ndeffo-Mbah M.L., Wenzel N., Gaffney S.G., Townsend J.P., Meyers L.A., Fallah M.
<i>Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Sang S., Gu S., Bi P., Yang W., Yang Z., Xu L., Yang J., Liu X., Jiang T., Wu H., Chu C., Liu Q.
<i>Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Ahmed S.S., Oviedo-Orta E., Mekaru S.R., Freifeld C.C., Tougas G., Brownstein J.S.
<i>Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Kesorn K., Ongruk P., Chompoosri J., Phumee A., Thavara U., Tawatsin A., Siriyasatien P.
<i>Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Ibanez-Justicia A., Cianci D.
<i>Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Rodriguez-Prieto V., Vicente-Rubiano M., Sanchez-Matamoros A., Rubio-Guerri C., Melero M., Martinez-
<i>Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Hickmann K.S., Fairchild G., Priedhorsky R., Generous N., Hyman J.M., Deshpande A., Del Valle S.Y.
<i>Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Paul M.M., Greene C.M., Newton-Dame R., Thorpe L.E., Perlman S.E., McVeigh K.H., Gourevitch M.N.
<i>The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Brookes V.J., Hernandez-Jover M., Black P.F., Ward M.P.
<i>Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Tinguely J., Lindemann J.
<i>Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Green H.K., Zhao H., Boddington N.L., Andrews N., Durnall H., Elliot A.J., Smith G., Gorton R., Dona
<i>Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Nakao J.H., Pringle J., Jones R.W., Nix B.E., Borders J., Heseltine G., Gomez T.M., McCluskey B., Ro
<i>'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Weng W., Ni S.
<i>Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Rachah A., Torres D.F.M.
<i>Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Von Dobschuetz S., De Nardi M., Harris K.A., Munoz O., Breed A.C., Wieland B., Dauphin G., Lubroth J
<i>Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Yom-Tov E., Johansson-Cox I., Lampos V., Hayward A.C.
<i>Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Morato D.G., Barreto F.R., Braga J.U., Natividade M.S., da Costa M.C.N., Morato V., Da Teixeira M.G.
<i>The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Watson C.H., Edmunds W.J.
<i>A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Huang Q.S., Turner N., Baker M.G., Williamson D.A., Wong C., Webby R., Widdowson M.-A., Aley D., Ban
<i>Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Hassanian-Moghaddam H., Nikfarjam A., Mirafzal A., Saberinia A., Nasehi A.A., Masoumi Asl H., Memary
<i>Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Zhao B., Qin S., Teng Z., Chen J., Yu X., Gao Y., Shen J., Cui X., Zeng M., Zhang X.
<i>Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>Dugas A.F., Valsamakis A., Atreya M.R., Thind K., Alarcon Manchego P., Faisal A., Gaydos C.A., Rothm
<i>Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article27><p class = 'ex'>Acosta A.M., DeBolt C., Tasslimi A., Lewis M., Stewart L.K., Misegades L.K., Messonnier N.E., Clark
<i>Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article28><p class = 'ex'>Wolff G., Bell M., Escobar J., Ruiz S.
<i>Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article29><p class = 'ex'>Roberts-Witteveen A., Reinten T., Christensen A., Sintchenko V., Seale P., Lowbridge C.
<i>Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.05.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A spatial-temporal transmission model and early intervention policies of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza in South Korea
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
We developed a spatial-temporal model of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), which is located in the north-west of South Korea and is the second-most complex metropolitan area worldwide. This multi-patch influenza model
consists of a SEIAR influenza transmission model and flow model between two districts. This model is based on the daily confirmed cases of A/H1N1 influenza collected by the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention from April 27 to September 15, 200
9 and the daily commuting data from 33 districts of SMA reported in the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC). We analyzed the spread patterns of 2009 influenza in the SMA by the reproductive numbers and geographic information systems. During the early
period of novel influenza pandemics, when pharmaceutical interventions are lacking, non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will be the most critical strategies for impeding the spread of influenza and delaying an epidemic. Using the spatial-tempora
l model developed herein, we also investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions, isolation and/or commuting restrictions, on the incidence reduction in various scenarios. Our model provides scientific evidence for predicting the
spread of disease and preparedness for a future pandemic. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this paper, we develop a unique time-varying forecasting model for dynamic demand of medical resources based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) influenza diffusion model. In this forecasting mechanism, medical resources allocated in the
early period will take effect in subduing the spread of influenza and thus impact the demand in the later period. We adopt a discrete time-space network to describe the medical resources allocation process following a hypothetical influenza outbreak in a r
egion. The entire medical resources allocation process is constructed as a multi-stage integer programming problem. At each stage, we solve a cost minimization sub-problem subject to the time-varying demand. The corresponding optimal allocation result is t
hen used as an input to the control process of influenza spread, which in turn determines the demand for the next stage. In addition, we present a comparison between the proposed model and an empirical model. Our results could help decision makers prepare
for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources dynamically. © 2015 Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12859-015-0612-2
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential o
f current high-performance workstations. Results: We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simu
lation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing
disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26 % up to more than 70 %. We have investigat
ed the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large differen
ce. Conclusions: Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease
propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance. © 2015 Willem et a
l.; licensee BioMed Central.
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0443-4
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of equine herpesvirus-4 and physiological stress patterns in young Thoroughbreds consigned to a South African auction sale
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: The prevalence of equine herpesvirus types-1 and -4 (EHV-1 and -4) in South African Thoroughbreds at auction sales is currently undefined. Commingling of young Thoroughbreds from various populations together with physiological stress related to
their transport and confinement at a sales complex, may be associated with shedding and transmission of EHV-1 and -4. This prospective cohort study sampled 90 young Thoroughbreds consigned from eight farms, originating from three provinces representative
of the South African Thoroughbred breeding demographic to a sales complex. Nasal swabs for quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay to detect EHV-1 and -4 nucleic acid and blood samples for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for EHV-1 a
nd -4 antibodies were collected from all horses on arrival and departure. Additional nasal swabs for qPCR were obtained serially from those displaying pyrexia and, or nasal discharge. Daily faecal samples were used for determination of faecal glucocorticoi
d metabolite (FGM) concentrations as a measurement of physiological stress and these values were modelled to determine the factors best explaining FGM variability. Results: EHV-4 nucleic acid was detected in 14.4 % and EHV-1 from none of the animals in the
study population. Most (93.3 %) and very few (1.1 %) of this population showed antibodies indicating prior exposure to EHV-4 and EHV-1 respectively. Pyrexia and nasal discharge were poor predictors for detecting EHV-4 nucleic acid. The horses' FGM concent
rations increased following arrival before decreasing for most of the remaining study period including the auction process. Model averaging showed that variation in FGM concentrations was best explained by days post-arrival and transport duration. Conclusi
ons: In this study population, sales consignment was associated with limited detection of EHV-4 nucleic acid in nasal secretions, with most showing prior exposure to EHV-4 and very few to EHV-1. The physiolog
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003794
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy can
didate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine
. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest tha
t if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benef
it of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring
vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts. © 2015 Wells et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003808
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Predicting Unprecedented Dengue Outbreak Using Imported Cases and Climatic Factors in Guangzhou, 2014
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical regions, and the incidence has increased 30-fold in the past 50 years. The situation of dengue in China has become more and more severe, with an unprecedented dengue outbreak
hitting south China in 2014. Building a dengue early warning system is therefore urgent and necessary for timely and effective response. In the study we developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using imported dengue cases, local minimu
m temperature and accumulative precipitation to predict the dengue occurrence in four districts of Guangzhou, China. The time series data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on
loess (STL). The time lag of climatic factors included in the model was chosen based on Spearman correlation analysis. Autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend were controlled in the model. A best model was selected and validated using Generalized
Cross Validation (GCV) score and residual test. The data from March 2006 to December 2012 were used to develop the model while the data from January 2013 to September 2014 were employed to validate the model. Time series Poisson model showed that imported
cases in the previous month, minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend.
Together with the sole transmission vector Aedes albopictus, imported cases, monthly minimum temperature and monthly accumulative precipitation may be used to develop a low-cost effective early warning system. © 2015 Sang et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127406
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Surveillance for Neisseria meningitidis disease activity and transmission using information technology
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: While formal reporting, surveillance, and response structures remain essential to protecting public health, a new generation of freely accessible, online, and real-time informatics tools for disease tracking are expanding the ability to raise e
arlier public awareness of emerging disease threats. The rationale for this study is to test the hypothesis that the HealthMap informatics tools can complement epidemiological data captured by traditional surveillance monitoring systems for meningitis due
to Neisseria meningitides (N. meningitides) by highlighting severe transmissible disease activity and outbreaks in the United States. Methods: Annual analyses of N. meningitides disease alerts captured by HealthMap were compared to epidemiological data cap
tured by the Centers for Disease Control's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) for N. meningitides. Morbidity and mortality case reports were measured annually from 2010 to 2013 (HealthMap) and 2005 to 2012 (ABCs). Findings: HealthMap N. meningitides
monitoring captured 80-90% of alerts as diagnosed N. meningitides, 5-20% of alerts as suspected cases, and 5-10% of alerts as related news articles. HealthMap disease alert activity for emerging disease threats related to N. meningitides were in agreement
with patterns identified historically using traditional surveillance systems. HealthMap's strength lies in its ability to provide a cumulative "snapshot" of weak signals that allows for rapid dissemination of knowledge and earlier public awareness of pote
ntial outbreak status while formal testing and confirmation for specific serotypes is ongoing by public health authorities. Conclusions: The underreporting of disease cases in internet-based data streaming makes inadequate any comparison to epidemiological
trends illustrated by the more comprehensive ABCs network published by the Centers for Disease Control. However, the expected delays in compiling confirmatory reports by traditional surveillance systems (at
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0125049
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Morbidity rate prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) using the support vector machine and the Aedes aegypti infection rate in similar climates and geographical areas
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they ar
e applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the suppo
rt vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings: Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data
integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosqu
itoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast th
e high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, an
d these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions: The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate p
arameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-0865-7
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands Mathematical models for parasites and vectors
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in
mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Nether
lands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Methods: Random forest models were used to link the
occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The enviro
nmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validat
ed. Results: The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and N
orth Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were impo
rtant for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. Conclusions: The areas identified by the model as suitable and with
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400212X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Systematic review of surveillance systems and methods for early detection of exotic, new and re-emerging diseases in animal populations
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
In this globalized world, the spread of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases has become one of the most important threats to animal production and public health. This systematic review analyses conventional and novel early detection methods applied to surv
eillance. In all, 125 scientific documents were considered for this study. Exotic (n = 49) and re-emerging (n = 27) diseases constituted the most frequently represented health threats. In addition, the majority of studies were related to zoonoses (n = 66).
The approaches found in the review could be divided in surveillance modalities, both active (n = 23) and passive (n = 5); and tools and methodologies that support surveillance activities (n = 57). Combinations of surveillance modalities and tools (n = 40)
were also found. Risk-based approaches were very common (n = 60), especially in the papers describing tools and methodologies (n = 50). The main applications, benefits and limitations of each approach were extracted from the papers. This information will
be very useful for informing the development of tools to facilitate the design of cost-effective surveillance strategies. Thus, the current literature review provides key information about the advantages, disadvantages, limitations and potential applicatio
n of methodologies for the early detection of new, exotic and re-emerging diseases. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Forecasting the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Using Wikipedia
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasona
l influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strat
egies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently ge
neral to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine wher
e the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The r
esults show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not
account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/pop.2014.0093
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The state of population health surveillance using electronic health records: A narrative review
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Electronic health records (EHRs) are transforming the practice of clinical medicine, but the extent to which they are being harnessed to advance public health goals remains uncertain. Data extracted from integrated EHR networks offer the potential for almo
st real-time determination of the health status of populations in care, for targeting interventions to vulnerable populations, and for monitoring the impact of such initiatives over time. This is especially true in ambulatory care settings, which are uniqu
ely suited for monitoring population health indicators including risk factors and disease management indicators associated with chronic diseases. As efforts gather steam to integrate health data across delivery systems, large networks of electronic patient
information are increasingly emerging. Few of the national population health surveillance systems that rely on EHR data have progressed beyond laying groundwork to launch and maintain EHR-based surveillance, but a limited number of more focused or local e
fforts have demonstrated innovation in population health surveillance. Common challenges include incompleteness of population coverage, lack of interoperability across data systems, and variable data quality. This review defines progress, opportunities, an
d challenges in using EHR data for population health surveillance. © Copyright 2015, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S095026881400315X
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: Pathways from anticipation to action
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Emerging and re-emerging infectious disease (EID) events can have devastating human, animal and environmental health impacts. The emergence of EIDs has been associated with interconnected economic, social and environmental changes. Understanding these chan
ges is crucial for EID preparedness and subsequent prevention and control of EID events. The aim of this review is to describe tools currently available for identification, prioritization and investigation of EIDs impacting human and animal health, and how
these might be integrated into a systematic approach for directing EID preparedness. Environmental scanning, foresight programmes, horizon scanning and surveillance are used to collect and assess information for rapidly responding to EIDs and to anticipat
e drivers of emergence for mitigating future EID impacts. Prioritization of EIDs-using transparent and repeatable methods-based on disease impacts and the importance of those impacts to decision-makers can then be used for more efficient resource allocatio
n for prevention and control. Risk assessment and simulation modelling methods assess the likelihood of EIDs occurring, define impact and identify mitigation strategies. Each of these tools has a role to play individually; however, we propose integration o
f these tools into a framework that enhances the development of tactical and strategic plans for emerging risk preparedness. © 2014 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Emerging infections and old friends: remaining prepared in South Dakota
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Recent reports of serious infection outbreaks internationally remind us of the importance of accurate information and continual vigilance. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has captured headlines as the most severe outbreak in the history of this disease.
West Nile disease, measles, pertussis and tuberculosis infect South Dakota patients on a yearly basis. A significant rise in syphilis cases has prompted recommendations for increased prenatal screening. The more unusual viral diseases, Ebola, Middle East r
espiratory syndrome (MERS) and Chikungunha virus, receive media attention but present minimal risk to the state, while the annual influenza epidemic continues to plague us all. We review these infections, both old and emerging, and describe national and lo
cal preparedness practices.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu046
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: Informing antiviral prescription and public health response
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the on
set of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. Methods An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-c
onfirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. Results National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following
national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were ab
le to monitor the subnational impact. Conclusions Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness
of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published b
y Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268815000151
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">'One Health' investigation: Outbreak of human Salmonella Braenderup infections traced to a mail-order hatchery-United States, 2012-2013
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Human salmonellosis linked to contact with live poultry is an increasing public health concern. In 2012, eight unrelated outbreaks of human salmonellosis linked to live poultry contact resulted in 517 illnesses. In July 2012, PulseNet, a national molecular
surveillance network, reported a multistate cluster of a rare strain of Salmonella Braenderup infections which we investigated. We defined a case as infection with the outbreak strain, determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, with illness onset fro
m 25 July 2012-27 February 2013. Ill persons and mail-order hatchery (MOH) owners were interviewed using standardized questionnaires. Traceback and environmental investigations were conducted. We identified 48 cases in 24 states. Twenty-six (81%) of 32 ill
persons reported live poultry contact in the week before illness; case-patients named 12 different MOHs from eight states. The investigation identified hatchery D as the ultimate poultry source. Sampling at hatchery D yielded the outbreak strain. Hatchery
D improved sanitation procedures and pest control; subsequent sampling failed to yield Salmonella. This outbreak highlights the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and the environment and the importance of industry knowledge and involvement in solving
complex outbreaks. Preventing these infections requires a 'One Health' approach that leverages expertise in human, animal, and environmental health. © 2015 Cambridge University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0037549715581637
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Evaluation of containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza A pandemic in China
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The world is still in heightened awareness of the potential threat of another influenza pandemic, although it has been 5 years since the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Evaluation of the adopted intervention strategies for handling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic
is helpful for dealing with future outbreaks. In this paper we developed a hybrid model combining meta-population and agent-based models to evaluate the containment and mitigation strategies (e.g., contact tracing and quarantine of contacts at assembly si
tes in the early phase, more medical institutions to detect cases and treat serious patients in the developing phase, and rapid vaccines delivered to students first) for an H1N1 pandemic that were adopted in China. We find that the presented model can retr
ospectively fit relatively well to the spreading progress through comparison of the simulation results with actual infections data, and it can be used for practical application in evaluating the containment and mitigation strategies for an influenza pandem
ic if model validation and parameter estimation can be conducted by using actual data. The results will contribute to understanding the spread of viruses and the control of infectious diseases, and to helping government officials create policies on handlin
g an influenza pandemic, especially beneficial to a large and diverse country such as the People's Republic of China. © 2015 The Author(s).
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/842792
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Mathematical modelling, simulation, and optimal control of the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to m
odelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validat
e the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, w
e apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method. © 2015 Amira Rachah and Delfim F. M. Torres.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002106
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Influenza surveillance in animals: What is our capacity to detect emerging influenza viruses with zoonotic potential?
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A survey of national animal influenza surveillance programmes was conducted to assess the current capacity to detect influenza viruses with zoonotic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that can be naturally transmitted between animals and hu
mans) at regional and global levels. Information on 587 animal influenza surveillance system components was collected for 99 countries from Chief Veterinary Officers (CVOs) (n = 94) and published literature. Less than 1% (n = 4) of these components were sp
ecifically aimed at detecting influenza viruses with pandemic potential in animals (i.e. those influenza viruses that are capable of causing epidemic spread in human populations over large geographical regions or worldwide), which would have zoonotic poten
tial as a prerequisite. Those countries that sought to detect influenza viruses with pandemic potential searched for such viruses exclusively in domestic pigs. This work shows the global need for increasing surveillance that targets potentially zoonotic in
fluenza viruses in relevant animal species. © 2014 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12321
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimating the secondary attack rate and serial interval of influenza-like illnesses using social media
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Objectives: Knowledge of the secondary attack rate (SAR) and serial interval (SI) of influenza is important for assessing the severity of seasonal epidemics of the virus. To date, such estimates have required extensive surveys of target populations. Here,
we propose a method for estimating the intrafamily SAR and SI from postings on the Twitter social network. This estimate is derived from a large number of people reporting ILI symptoms in them and\or their immediate family members. Design: We analyze data
from the 2012-2013 and the 2013-2014 influenza seasons in England and find that increases in the estimated SAR precede increases in ILI rates reported by physicians. Results: We hypothesize that observed variations in the peak value of SAR are related to t
he appearance of specific strains of the virus and demonstrate this by comparing the changes in SAR values over time in relation to known virology. In addition, we estimate SI (the average time between cases) as 2·41 days for 2012 and 2·48 days for 2013. C
onclusions: The proposed method can assist health authorities by providing near-real-time estimation of SAR and SI, and especially in alerting to sudden increases thereof. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-0276140388
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in
2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidem
ic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was ident
ified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly redu
ce the magnitude of dengue epidemics. © 2015 Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz. All rights reserved.
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.013
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decisi
on making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health
burden.Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination s
uggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncer
tainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity.Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to W
HO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine effic
acy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection.Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-se
tting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no econo
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12315
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
The 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for improved scientific knowledge to support better pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (S
HIVERS) project, a 5-year (2012-2016) multiagency and multidisciplinary collaboration, aimed to measure disease burden, epidemiology, aetiology, risk factors, immunology, effectiveness of vaccination and other prevention strategies for influenza and other
respiratory infectious diseases of public health importance. Two active, prospective, population-based surveillance systems were established for monitoring influenza and other respiratory pathogens among those hospitalized patients with acute respiratory i
llness and those enrolled patients seeking consultations at sentinel general practices. In 2015, a sero-epidemiological study will use a sample of patients from the same practices. These data will provide a full picture of the disease burden and risk facto
rs from asymptomatic infections to severe hospitalized disease and deaths and related economic burden. The results during the first 2 years (2012-2013) provided scientific evidence to (a) support a change to NZ's vaccination policy for young children due t
o high influenza hospitalizations in these children; (b) contribute to the revision of the World Health Organization's case definition for severe acute respiratory illness for global influenza surveillance; and (c) contribute in part to vaccine strain sele
ction using vaccine effectiveness assessment in the prevention of influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations. In summary, SHIVERS provides valuable international platforms for supporting seasonal influenza control and pandemic preparedness, and r
esponding to other emerging/endemic respiratory-related infections. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdu038
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Methanol mass poisoning in Iran: Role of case finding in outbreak management
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background There are no guidelines addressing the public health aspects of methanol poisoning during larger outbreaks. The current study was done to discuss the role of active case finding and a national guideline that organizes all available resources acc
ording to a triage strategy in the successful management of a methanol mass poisoning in Rafsanjan, Iran, in May 2013. Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed reviewing the outbreak Emergency Operation Center files. The objectives were
to describe the characteristics, management and outcome of a methanol outbreak using Active Case Finding to trace the victims. Results A total of 694 patients presented to emergency departments in Rafsanjan after public announcement of the outbreak between
29th May and 3rd June 2013. The announcement was mainly performed via short message service (SMS) and local radio broadcasting. A total of 361 cases were observed and managed in Rafsanjan and 333 were transferred to other cities. Seventy-five and 100 pati
ents underwent hemodialysis (HD), retrospectively. The main indication for HD was refractory metabolic acidosis. Eight patients expired due to the intoxication. Except for the deceased cases, no serum methanol level was available. Conclusion In developing
countries, where diagnostic resources are limited, use of active case finding and developing national guidelines can help in the management of large outbreaks of methanol poisonings. © 2014 The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of
Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2015.03.009
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Epidemiological study of influenza B in Shanghai during the 2009-2014 seasons: Implications for influenza vaccination strategy
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
A new quadrivalent influenza vaccine has been available for influenza B, which can pose a significant global health burden. Shanghai has the highest GDP and largest metropolitan population in China. To understand the impact of influenza B in Shanghai in te
rms of age-related incidence and relative prevalence compared with other subtypes, we conducted this retrospective epidemiological study of influenza B in the 2009-2014 seasons. A total of 71 354 outpatients with influenza-like illness were included, and b
oth lineages of influenza B and subtypes of influenza A were identified using real-time RT-PCR. The antigenic characteristics of influenza B isolates were analysed by sequencing and reciprocal haemagglutinin inhibition assay. On average, 33.45% of influenz
a strains were influenza B, and 40.20% of strains isolated from children were influenza B. The incidence of influenza B was highest (12.52 per 100 people with influenza-like illness) in children ages 6-17 years and usually peaked in this age group at the e
arly stage of an influenza B epidemic. Overall, both matched and mismatched influenza B strains co-circulated in Shanghai annually, and 44.57% of the circulating influenza B belonged to the opposite lineage of the vaccine strains. We concluded that influen
za B has caused a substantial impact in Shanghai and that school-aged children play a key role in the transmission of influenza B. Hence, it may be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children to mitigate the outbreaks of influen
za B. © 2015 The Authors.
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2015.03.008
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Clinical diagnosis of influenza in the ED
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background Timely and accurate diagnosis of influenza remains a challenge but is critical for patients who may benefit from antiviral therapy. This study determined the test characteristics of provider diagnosis of influenza, final ED electronic medical re
cord (EMR) diagnosis of influenza, and influenza-like illness (ILI) in patients recommended to receive antiviral treatment according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. In addition, we evaluated the compliance with CDC antiviral
guidelines. Methods A prospective cohort of adults presenting to a tertiary care ED with an acute respiratory illness who met CDC criteria for recommended antiviral treatment were enrolled and tested for influenza. A clinical diagnosis of influenza was as
sessed by asking the clinician: "Do you think this patient has influenza?" Influenza-like illness was defined according to current CDC criteria. Results In this cohort of 270 subjects, 42 (16%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11%-20%) had influenza. Clinicia
n diagnosis had a sensitivity of 36% (95% CI, 22%-52%) and specificity of 78% (95% CI, 72%-83%); EMR final ED diagnosis had a sensitivity of 26% (95% CI, 14%-42%) and specificity of 97% (95% CI, 94%-99%); ILI had a sensitivity of 31% (95% CI, 18%-47%) and
specificity of 88% (95% CI, 83%-92%). Only 15 influenza-positive patients (36%) received antiviral treatment. Conclusion Clinician diagnosis, final ED EMR diagnosis, and ILI have low sensitivity for diagnosing influenza, and there is overall poor complianc
e with CDC antiviral treatment recommendations. Improved methods of influenza diagnosis are needed to help guide management in the clinical setting. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article27" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1542/peds.2014-3358
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Tdap vaccine effectiveness in adolescents during the 2012 Washington State pertussis epidemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
BACKGROUND: Acellular pertussis vaccines replaced whole-cell vaccines for the 5-dose childhood vaccination series in 1997. A sixth dose of pertussis-containing vaccine, tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis, adsorbed (Tdap), wa
s recommended in 2005 for adolescents and adults. Studies examining Tdap vaccine effectiveness (VE) among adolescents who have received all acellular vaccines are limited. METHODS: To assess Tdap VE and duration of protection, we conducted a matched case-c
ontrol study during the 2012 pertussis epidemic in Washington among adolescents born during 1993-2000. All pertussis cases reported from January 1 through June 30, 2012, in 7 counties were included; 3 controls were matched by primary provider clinic and bi
rth year to each case. Vaccination histories were obtained through medical records, the state immunization registry, and parent interviews. Participants were classified by type of pertussis vaccine received on the basis of birth year: a mix of whole-cell a
nd acellular vaccines (1993-1997) or all acellular vaccines (1998-2000). We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios comparing Tdap receipt between cases and controls. RESULTS: Among adolescents who received all acellular vaccines (450
cases, 1246 controls), overall Tdap VE was 63.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 50% to 74%). VE within 1 year of vaccination was 73% (95% CI: 60% to 82%). At 2 to 4 years postvaccination, VE declined to 34% (95% CI: -0.03% to 58%). CONCLUSIONS: Tdap prote
ction wanes within 2 to 4 years. Lack of long-term protection after vaccination is likely contributing to increases in pertussis among adolescents. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
</A></p>
<A name="article28" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.084
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimates of pertussis vaccine effectiveness in United States air force pediatric dependents
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
Background: Pertussis vaccination compliance is critical for reduction in the prevalence of disease; however, the current acellular pertussis vaccine may not provide sufficient protection from infection. This study examined acellular pertussis vaccine effe
ctiveness (VE) for Air Force dependents less than 12 years of age. Methods: We conducted a case-control study among Air Force pediatric dependents from 2011 to 2013, comparing cases with positive pertussis test results to controls who received the same lab
tests with a negative result. Our study population was categorized by age group and vaccination status based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended pertussis vaccination schedule. VE was calculated with respect to vaccination status
and pertussis lab results. Results: We compared 27 pertussis laboratory positive cases with 974 pertussis laboratory negative controls, 2 months to <12 years old. Comparing completely vaccinated to non-vaccinated patients, the overall VE was 78.3% (95% co
nfidence interval (CI): 48.6, 90.8; p<. 0.001). VE was highest among those 15 months to <6 years old: 97.6% (95% CI: 78.5, 99.7; p<. 0.001). Children 6 to <12 years old had the lowest VE: 48.5% (95% CI: -74.0, 84.7; p= 0.28). Comparing partially vaccinated
patients to nonvaccinated patients yielded 64.2% (95% CI: -7.2, 88.1; p= 0.06) overall VE. Conclusions: Acellular pertussis vaccination was effective at preventing laboratory confirmed pertussis among our Air Force pediatric dependent population, with hig
hest protection among completely vaccinated, young children. Older children received the lowest amount of protection. Partial vaccination had near significant protection. Our overall calculated pertussis VE corroborates other pertussis VE studies looking a
t similar age groups. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article29" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.14.0575
'>'
<H2><p class = "ex">Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in New South Wales, Australia, 1999-2010: A case series report
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">
SETTING : The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens the ongoing control of tuberculosis (TB). The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has low TB and MDR-TB incidence. OBJ ECT IVE : To examine the epidemiology and the clinic
al and public health management of MDR-TB in NSW. DESIGN : A retrospective case-series analysis of MDRTB diagnosed in NSW between 1999 and 2010 was undertaken. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect information from the public health surveillance
system, medical records and the State Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory about clinical features, drug susceptibility, treatment regimens, hospitalisation, risk factors for tuberculous infection, contact tracing and patient outcomes. RESULTS : Fifty-five
cases of culture-confirmed MDRTB, including two cases of extensively drug-resistant TB, were diagnosed. All cases were reviewed by an expert management panel. Fifty cases (91%) were foreign-born, and 50 cases (91%) had fully supervised treatment. Of the 55
cases, 46 (84%) successfully completed treatment, 3 (5%) died of TB and 3 (5%) required surgery. No MDR-TB cases were reported among contacts. CONCLUSION: Using a multidisciplinary, expert guided, case-management approach, the NSW TB Control Program achie
ved excellent MDR-TB outcomes. The impact of global increases in MDR-TB requires sustained commitment to TB in all settings. © 2015 The Union.
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br><a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style=
"font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info) <b>(*login required)<br></b> </span> </a>
</div></div><br></div></body></html>
<html>
<head>ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-22867638262033086092015-05-28T20:39:00.002-04:002015-05-28T20:39:56.682-04:00NAHDO announces release of tool to support ICD-9/10 Transition supported by CDC / OPHSS / CSELS / DHIS<div class="p1">
We (NAHDO) are pleased to announce the availability of the Conversion tool for the ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CM Transition. The adoption of ICD-10-CM/PCS is effective October 1, 2015 for medical claims. Public health programs that obtain data from multiple data sources may receive data in overlapping time periods without clear indication of which coding scheme (ICD-9 or ICD-10) was used. Some data reporting entities (e.g., property and casualty insurers, disability, workers compensation, employee health clinics) are not covered by HIPAA and may not switch to ICD-10-CM on 10/1/2015 and some data reporting entities may choose to implement ICD-10-CM before 10/1/2015, given no prohibition against doing so.</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
To help programs and data users identify which coding scheme is used, the University of California at Davis (UCD) developed, for CDC use, a SAS program that now is available to the public. <b><i>The toolkit was developed by the University of California, Davis (UCD) under funding from the Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology and Laboratory Services (CSELS) within the Office of Public Health Scientific Services (OPHSS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). .</i></b></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
This SAS Macro toolkit A SAS macro algorithm to differentiate ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM records. </div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
The toolkit includes a SAS Macro program and relevant documentation:</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">•</span><span class="s2"> </span>The SAS macro runs quickly on very large data sets with multiple dx per record.</div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">•</span><span class="s2"> </span>The output from the SAS Macro identifies which diagnosis code version (ICD-9 CM v. ICD-10 CM) is used within a given record if not overtly classified. This is potentially helpful for datasets that may have either codeset in use. </div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">•</span><span class="s2"> </span>It can easily flag invalid codes (which are neither valid ICD-9-CM nor ICD-10-CM).</div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">•</span><span class="s2"> </span>It can easily flag records that incorrectly include both ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes for rejection or manual review.</div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">•</span><span class="s2"> </span>Codes that are common between ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM are flagged and classified based upon codes on the same record and E coding rules.</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
Information about this tool can be found on NAHDO’s website: <a href="https://www.nahdo.org/node/250"><span class="s3">https://www.nahdo.org/node/250</span></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
The form for requesting the free, open source program (SAS Macro Toolkit_v1-5.zip) is available at the link above.</div>
<div class="p3">
<span class="s4"><a href="https://www.nahdo.org/node/250">https://www.nahdo.org/node/250</a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-16962760231096283722015-05-19T14:32:00.001-04:002015-05-19T14:32:32.786-04:00Research Articles of the Week, May 18th, 2015<html>
<head>
<style>p.ex { width: 800;}.indented { padding-left: 50; padding-right: 50; }</style>
<title>Articles from May_18_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of May_18_2015</h1><div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
<span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Zu J., Wang L.
<i>Periodic solutions for a seasonally forced SIR model with impact of media coverage
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>Liu W., Zheng Q.
<i>A stochastic SIS epidemic model incorporating media coverage in a two patch setting
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Laar A., DeBruin D.
<i>Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Liang Y.-H., Juang J.
<i>The impact of vaccine failure rate on epidemic dynamics in responsive networks
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Otomaru H., Kamigaki T., Tamaki R., Opinion J., Santo A., Daya E., Okamoto M., Saito M., Tallo V., L
<i>Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Hilborn E.D., Beasley V.R.
<i>One health and cyanobacteria in freshwater systems: Animal illnesses and deaths are sentinel events for human health risks
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Weng T.C., Chan T.C., Lin H.T., Chang C.K.J., Wang W.W., Li Z.R.T., Cheng H.-Y., Chu Y.-R., Chiu A.W
<i>Early detection for cases of enterovirus- and influenza-like illness through a Newly Established School-Based Syndromic Surveillance System in Taipei, January 2010 ~ August 2011
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Abramowitz S.A., McLean K.E., McKune S.L., Bardosh K.L., Fallah M., Monger J., Tehoungue K., Omidian
<i>Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Khan Y., Fazli G., Henry B., De Villa E., Tsamis C., Grant M., Schwartz B.
<i>The evidence base of primary research in public health emergency preparedness: A scoping review and stakeholder consultation Health policies, systems and management
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Oyebode O., Pape U.J., Laverty A.A., Lee J.T., Bhan N., Millett C.
<i>Rural,urban and migrant differences in non-communicable disease risk-factors in middle income countries:A cross-sectional study of WHO-SAGE data
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Tuan N.M., Nhan H.T., Van Vinh Chau N., Hung N.T., Tuan H.M., Van Tram T., Le Da Ha N., Loi P., Quan
<i>Sensitivity and Specificity of a Novel Classifier for the Early Diagnosis of Dengue
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Hiebeler D.E., Rier R.M., Audibert J., LeClair P.J., Webber A.
<i>Variability in a Community-Structured SIS Epidemiological Model
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Wang T., Wang M., Shu B., Chen X.-Q., Luo L., Wang J.-Y., Cen Y.-Z., Anderson B.D., Merrill M.M., Me
<i>Evaluation of Inapparent Dengue Infections During an Outbreak in Southern China
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Page A.-L., Ciglenecki I., Jasmin E.R., Desvignes L., Grandesso F., Polonsky J., Nicholas S., Albert
<i>Geographic Distribution and Mortality Risk Factors during the Cholera Outbreak in a Rural Region of Haiti, 2010-2011
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Undurraga E.A., Betancourt-Cravioto M., Ramos-Castaneda J., Martinez-Vega R., Mendez-Galvan J., Gubl
<i>Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Mexico
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Grubaugh N.D., Sharma S., Krajacich B.J., Fakoli III L.S., Bolay F.K., Diclaro II J.W., Johnson W.E.
<i>Xenosurveillance: A Novel Mosquito-Based Approach for Examining the Human-Pathogen Landscape
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Herrador Z., Gherasim A., Jimenez B.C., Granados M., San Martin J.V., Aparicio P.
<i>Epidemiological Changes in Leishmaniasis in Spain According to Hospitalization-Based Records, 1997–2011: Raising Awareness towards Leishmaniasis in Non-HIV Patients
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Wei J., Hansen A., Liu Q., Sun Y., Weinstein P., Bi P.
<i>The Effect of Meteorological Variables on the Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Four Major Cities of Shanxi Province, China: A Time Series Data Analysis (2009-2013)
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Komen K., Olwoch J., Rautenbach H., Botai J., Adebayo A.
<i>Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Rubinstein H., Marcu A., Yardley L., Michie S.
<i>Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Chan T.-C., Teng Y.-C., Hwang J.-S.
<i>Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Gambhir M., Bozio C., O'Hagan J.J., Uzicanin A., Johnson L.E., Biggerstaff M., Swerdlow D.L.
<i>Infectious disease modeling methods as tools for informing response to novel influenza viruses of unknown pandemic potential
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Grosbois V., Hasler B., Peyre M., Hiep D.T., Vergne T.
<i>A rationale to unify measurements of effectiveness for animal health surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Vaidya N.K., Wahl L.M.
<i>Avian influenza dynamics under periodic environmental conditions
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Luo L.-F., Qiao K., Wang X.-G., Ding K.-Y., Su H.-L., Li C.-Z., Yan H.-J.
<i>Acute gastroenteritis outbreak caused by a GII.6 norovirus
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>O'Hagan J.J., Wong K.K., Campbell A.P., Patel A., Swerdlow D.L., Fry A.M., Koonin L.M., Meltzer M.I.
<i>Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article27><p class = 'ex'>Meltzer M.I., Patel A., Ajao A., Nystrom S.V., Koonin L.M.
<i>Estimates of the demand for mechanical ventilation in the United States during an influenza pandemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article28><p class = 'ex'>Rolison J.J., Hanoch Y.
<i>Knowledge and risk perceptions of the Ebola virus in the United States
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article29><p class = 'ex'>Carias C., Rainisch G., Shankar M., Adhikari B.B., Swerdlow D.L., Bower W.A., Pillai S.K., Meltzer M
<i>Potential demand for respirators and surgical masks during a hypothetical influenza pandemic in the United States
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article30><p class = 'ex'>Yom-Tov E., Johansson Cox I., Lampos V.
<i>Learning about health and medicine from internet data
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article31><p class = 'ex'>Venkat A., Asher S.L., Wolf L., Geiderman J.M., Marco C.A., McGreevy J., Derse A.R., Otten E.J., Jes
<i>Ethical issues in the response to ebola virus disease in United States emergency departments: A position paper of the American college of emergency physicians, the emergency nurses
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article32><p class = 'ex'>Alfelali M., Barasheed O., Tashani M., Azeem M.I., Bashir H.E., Memish Z.A., Heron L., Khandaker G.,
<i>Changes in the prevalence of influenza-like illness and influenza vaccine uptake among Hajj pilgrims: A 10-year retrospective analysis of data
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article33><p class = 'ex'>l of Biological Sciences and Sydney Medical School
<i>University of SydneySydney
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article34><p class = 'ex'>Fung I.C.-H., Gambhir M., Glasser J.W., Gao H., Washington M.L., Uzicanin A., Meltzer M.I.
<i>Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: Exploring two different contact matrices
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article35><p class = 'ex'>Aguilar-Madrid G., Castelan-Vega J.A., Juarez-Perez C.A., Ribas-Aparicio R.M., Estrada-Garcia I., Ba
<i>Seroprevalence of pandemic A(H1N1) pmd09 virus antibodies in Mexican health care workers before and after vaccination
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article36><p class = 'ex'>Langwig K.E., Voyles J., Wilber M.Q., Frick W.F., Murray K.A., Bolker B.M., Collins J.P., Cheng T.L.
<i>Context-dependent conservation responses to emerging wildlife diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article37><p class = 'ex'>Jennings L.C., Priest P.C., Psutka R.A., Duncan A.R., Anderson T., Mahagamasekera P., Strathdee A.,
<i>Respiratory viruses in airline travellers with influenza symptoms: Results of an airport screening study
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article38><p class = 'ex'>Gany F., Rau-Murthy R., Mujawar I.
<i>Increasing influenza vaccination in New York City taxi drivers: A community driven approach
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article39><p class = 'ex'>Fairchok M.P., Chen W.-J., Arnold J.C., Schofield C., Danaher P.J., McDonough E.A., Ottolini M., Mor
<i>Neuraminidase inhibitor therapy in a military population
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article40><p class = 'ex'>Onyeka I.N., Olubamwo O., Beynon C.M., Ronkainen K., Fohr J., Tiihonen J., Tuomola P., Tasa N., Kauh
<i>Factors associated with hospitalization for blood-borne viral infections among treatment-seeking illicit drug users
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article41><p class = 'ex'>Bronner A., Gay E., Fortane N., Palussiere M., Hendrikx P., Henaux V., Calavas D.
<i>Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article42><p class = 'ex'>Morens D.M., Taubenberger J.K.
<i>How low is the risk of influenza A(H5N1) infection?
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article43><p class = 'ex'>Pinior B., Brugger K., Kofer J., Schwermer H., Stockreiter S., Loitsch A., Rubel F.
<i>Economic comparison of the monitoring programmes for bluetongue vectors in Austria and Switzerland
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article44><p class = 'ex'>Narain J.P.
<i>Responding to the Ebola virus disease in West Africa: Lessons for India
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article45><p class = 'ex'>Kelly M.P., Kelly R.S., Russo F.
<i>The integration of social, behavioral, and biological mechanisms in models of pathogenesis
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article46><p class = 'ex'>Al Mawly J., Grinberg A., Prattley D., Moffat J., French N.
<i>Prevalence of endemic enteropathogens of calves in New Zealand dairy farms
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article47><p class = 'ex'>Chen B., Huang B., Xu B.
<i>Comparison of spatiotemporal fusion models: A review
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-015-0477-8
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Periodic solutions for a seasonally forced SIR model with impact of media coverage
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In this paper, we study periodic solutions for a seasonally forced SIR model with impact of media coverage. Usually, media reports, information processing, and individuals’ alerted responses to the information can only arise as the number of infected individuals reaches and exceeds a certain level. The piecewise smooth righthand side is introduced to describe the impact of this kind of media coverage. Using Leray-Schauder degree theory, we establish new results on the existence of at least one positive periodic solution for a seasonally forced SIR model with impact of media coverage. Some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of such media coverage. © 2015, Zu and Wang; licensee Springer.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.04.025
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">A stochastic SIS epidemic model incorporating media coverage in a two patch setting
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In this paper, we investigate the stochastic disease dynamics of an SIS epidemic model on two patches incorporating media coverage. We give the global existence and positivity of the solutions, and the sufficient conditions for almost surely exponentially stability of the disease-free equilibrium, which means that the disease will be stochastic extinction. Furthermore, we perform some numerical simulations to validate the analytical finding. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12910-015-0025-9
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). Methods: We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. Results: This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Conclusions: Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the r
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4919245
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">The impact of vaccine failure rate on epidemic dynamics in responsive networks
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">An SIS model based on the microscopic Markov-chain approximation is considered in this paper. It is assumed that the individual vaccination behavior depends on the contact awareness, local and global information of an epidemic. To better simulate the real situation, the vaccine failure rate is also taken into consideration. Our main conclusions are given in the following. First, we show that if the vaccine failure rate ? is zero, then the epidemic eventually dies out regardless of what the network structure is or how large the effective spreading rate and the immunization response rates of an epidemic are. Second, we show that for any positive ?, there exists a positive epidemic threshold depending on an adjusted network structure, which is only determined by the structure of the original network, the positive vaccine failure rate and the immunization response rate for contact awareness. Moreover, the epidemic threshold increases with respect to the strength of the immunization response rate for contact awareness. Finally, if the vaccine failure rate and the immunization response rate for contact awareness are positive, then there exists a critical vaccine failure rate ?<inf>c</inf> > 0 so that the disease free equilibrium (DFE) is stable (resp., unstable) if ? < ?<inf>c</inf> (resp., ? > ?<inf>c</inf>). Numerical simulations to see the effectiveness of our theoretical results are also provided. © 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123755
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Influenza and other respiratory viruses detected by influenza-like illness surveillance in Leyte Island, the Philippines, 2010-2013
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">This study aimed to determine the role of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance conducted on Leyte Island, the Philippines, including involvement of other respiratory viruses, from 2010 to 2013. ILI surveillance was conducted from January 2010 to March 2013 with 3 sentinel sites located in Tacloban city, Palo and Tanauan of Leyte Island. ILI was defined as fever ?38°C or feverish feeling and either cough or running nose in a patient of any age. Influenza virus and other 5 respiratory viruses were searched. A total of 5,550 ILI cases visited the 3 sites and specimens were collected from 2,031 (36.6%) cases. Among the cases sampled, 1,637 (75.6%) were children aged <5 years. 874 (43.0%) cases were positive for at least one of the respiratory viruses tested. Influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were predominantly detected (both were 25.7%) followed by human rhinovirus (HRV) (17.5%). The age distributions were significantly different between those who were positive for influenza, HRV, and RSV. ILI cases were reported throughout the year and influenza virus was co-detected with those viruses on approximately half of the weeks of study period (RSV in 60.5% and HRV 47.4%). In terms of clinical manifestations, only the rates of headache and sore throat were significantly higher in influenza positive cases than cases positive to other viruses. In conclusion, syndromic ILI surveillance in this area is difficult to detect the start of influenza epidemic without laboratory confirmation which requires huge resources. Age was an important factor that affected positive rates of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Involvement of older age children may be useful to detect influenza more effectively. © 2015 Otomaru et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/toxins7041374
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">One health and cyanobacteria in freshwater systems: Animal illnesses and deaths are sentinel events for human health risks
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Harmful cyanobacterial blooms have adversely impacted human and animal health for thousands of years. Recently, the health impacts of harmful cyanobacteria blooms are becoming more frequently detected and reported. However, reports of human and animal illnesses or deaths associated with harmful cyanobacteria blooms tend to be investigated and reported separately. Consequently, professionals working in human or in animal health do not always communicate findings related to these events with one another. Using the One Health concept of integration and collaboration among health disciplines, we systematically review the existing literature to discover where harmful cyanobacteria-associated animal illnesses and deaths have served as sentinel events to warn of potential human health risks. We find that illnesses or deaths among livestock, dogs and fish are all potentially useful as sentinel events for the presence of harmful cyanobacteria that may impact human health. We also describe ways to enhance the value of reports of cyanobacteria-associated illnesses and deaths in animals to protect human health. Efficient monitoring of environmental and animal health in a One Health collaborative framework can provide vital warnings of cyanobacteria-associated human health risks. © 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122865
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Early detection for cases of enterovirus- and influenza-like illness through a Newly Established School-Based Syndromic Surveillance System in Taipei, January 2010 ~ August 2011
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">School children may transmit pathogens with cluster cases occurring on campuses and in families. In response to the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Taipei City Government officials developed a School-based Infectious Disease Syndromic Surveillance System (SIDSSS). Teachers and nurses from preschools to universities in all 12 districts within Taipei are required to daily report cases of symptomatic children or sick leave requests through the SID-SSS. The pre-diagnosis at schools is submitted firstly as common pediatric disease syndrome-groups and re-submitted after confirmation by physicians. We retrieved these data from January 2010 to August 2011 for spatio-temporal analysis and evaluated the temporal trends with cases obtained from both the Emergency Department-based Syndromic Surveillance System (ED-SSS) and the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005). Through the SID-SSS, enterovirus-like illness (EVI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) were the two most reported syndrome groups (77.6% and 15.8% among a total of 19,334 cases, respectively). The pre-diagnosis judgments made by school teachers and nurses showed high consistency with physicians' clinical diagnoses for EVI (97.8%) and ILI (98.9%). Most importantly, the SID-SSS had better timeliness with earlier peaks of EVI and ILI than those in the ED-SSS. Furthermore, both of the syndrome groups in these two surveillance systems had the best correlation reaching 0.98 and 0.95, respectively (p<0.01). Spatio-temporal analysis observed the patterns of EVI and ILI both diffuse from the northern suburban districts to central Taipei, with ILI spreading faster. This novel system can identify early suspected cases of two important pediatric infections occurring at schools, and clusters from schools/families. It was also cost-effective (95.5% of the operation cost reduced and 59.7% processing time saved). The timely surveillance of mild EVI and ILI cases integrated with spatial analysis may help public healt
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003706
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The West African Ebola epidemic has demonstrated that the existing range of medical and epidemiological responses to emerging disease outbreaks is insufficient, especially in post-conflict contexts with exceedingly poor healthcare infrastructures. In this context, community-based responses have proven vital for containing Ebola virus disease (EVD) and shifting the epidemic curve. Despite a surge in interest in local innovations that effectively contained the epidemic, the mechanisms for community-based response remain unclear. This study provides baseline information on community-based epidemic control priorities and identifies innovative local strategies for containing EVD in Liberia. This study was conducted in September 2014 in 15 communities in Monrovia and Montserrado County, Liberia – one of the epicenters of the Ebola outbreak. Findings from 15 focus group discussions with 386 community leaders identified strategies being undertaken and recommendations for what a community-based response to Ebola should look like under then-existing conditions. Data were collected on the following topics: prevention, surveillance, care-giving, community-based treatment and support, networks and hotlines, response teams, Ebola treatment units (ETUs) and hospitals, the management of corpses, quarantine and isolation, orphans, memorialization, and the need for community-based training and education. Findings have been presented as community-based strategies and recommendations for (1) prevention, (2) treatment and response, and (3) community sequelae and recovery. Several models for community-based management of the current Ebola outbreak were proposed. Additional findings indicate positive attitudes towards early Ebola survivors, and the need for community-based psychosocial support. Local communities’ strategies and recommendations give insight into how urban Liberian communities contained the EVD outbreak while navigating the systemic failures of the initial state and interna
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1750-1
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">The evidence base of primary research in public health emergency preparedness: A scoping review and stakeholder consultation Health policies, systems and management
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Effective public health emergency preparedness and response systems are important in mitigating the impact of all-hazards emergencies on population health. The evidence base for public health emergency preparedness (PHEP) is weak, however, and previous reviews have noted a substantial proportion of anecdotal event reports. To investigate the body of research excluding the anecdotal reports and better understand primary and analytical research for PHEP, a scoping review was conducted with two objectives: first, to develop a thematic map focused on primary research; and second, to use this map to inform and guide an understanding of knowledge gaps relevant to research and practice in PHEP. Methods: A scoping review was conducted based on established methodology. Multiple databases of indexed and grey literature were searched based on concepts of public health, emergency, emergency management/preparedness and evaluation/evidence. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied iteratively. Primary research studies that were evidence-based or evaluative in nature were included in the final group of selected studies. Thematic analysis was conducted for this group. Stakeholder consultation was undertaken for the purpose of validating themes and identifying knowledge gaps. To accomplish this, a purposive sample of researchers and practicing professionals in PHEP or closely related fields was asked to complete an online survey and participate in an in-person meeting. Final themes and knowledge gaps were synthesized after stakeholder consultation. Results: Database searching yielded 3015 citations and article selection resulted in a final group of 58 articles. A list of ten themes from this group of articles was disseminated to stakeholders with the survey questions. Survey findings resulted in four cross-cutting themes and twelve stand-alone themes. Several key knowledge gaps were identified in the following themes: attitudes and beliefs; collaboration and system
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122747
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Rural,urban and migrant differences in non-communicable disease risk-factors in middle income countries:A cross-sectional study of WHO-SAGE data
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background Understanding how urbanisation and rural-urban migration influence risk-factors for noncommunicable disease (NCD) is crucial for developing effective preventative strategies globally. This study compares NCD risk-factor prevalence in urban, rural and migrant populations in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa. Methods Study participants were 39,436 adults within the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE), surveyed 2007-2010. Risk ratios (RR) for each risk-factor were calculated using logistic regression in country-specific and all country pooled analyses, adjusted for age, sex and survey design. Fully adjusted models included income quintile, marital status and education. Results Regular alcohol consumption was lower in migrant and urban groups than in rural groups (pooled RR and 95%CI: 0.47 (0.31-0.68); 0.58, (0.46-0.72), respectively). Occupational physical activity was lower (0.86 (0.72-0.98); 0.76 (0.65 -0.85)) while active travel and recreational physical activity were higher (pooled RRs for urban groups; 1.05 (1.00-1.09), 2.36 (1.95-2.83), respectively; for migrant groups: 1.07 (1.0 -1.12), 1.71 (1.11-2.53), respectively). Overweight, raised waist circumference and diagnosed diabetes were higher in urban groups (1.19 (1.04-1.35), 1.24 (1.07-1.42), 1.69 (1.15-2.47), respectively). Exceptions to these trends exist: obesity indicators were higher in rural Russia; active travel was lower in urban groups in Ghana and India; and in South Africa, urban groups had the highest alcohol consumption. © 2015 Oyebode et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003638
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Sensitivity and Specificity of a Novel Classifier for the Early Diagnosis of Dengue
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Dengue is the commonest arboviral disease of humans. An early and accurate diagnosis of dengue can support clinical management, surveillance and disease control and is central to achieving the World Health Organisation target of a 50% reduction in dengue case mortality by 2020. 5729 children with fever of <72hrs duration were enrolled into this multicenter prospective study in southern Vietnam between 2010-2012. A composite of gold standard diagnostic tests identified 1692 dengue cases. Using statistical methods, a novel Early Dengue Classifier (EDC) was developed that used patient age, white blood cell count and platelet count to discriminate dengue cases from non-dengue cases. The EDC had a sensitivity of 74.8% (95%CI: 73.0-76.8%) and specificity of 76.3% (95%CI: 75.2-77.6%) for the diagnosis of dengue. As an adjunctive test alongside NS1 rapid testing, sensitivity of the composite test was 91.6% (95%CI: 90.4-92.9%). We demonstrate that the early diagnosis of dengue can be enhanced beyond the current standard of care using a simple evidence-based algorithm. The results should support patient management and clinical trials of specific therapies. © 2015 Tuan et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-014-0017-9
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Variability in a Community-Structured SIS Epidemiological Model
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">We study an SIS epidemiological model of a population partitioned into groups referred to as communities, households, or patches. The system is studied using stochastic spatial simulations, as well as a system of ordinary differential equations describing moments of the distribution of infectious individuals. The ODE model explicitly includes the population size, as well as the variability in infection levels among communities and the variability among stochastic realizations of the process. Results are compared with an earlier moment-based model which assumed infinite population size and no variance among realizations of the process. We find that although the amount of localized (as opposed to global) contact in the model has little effect on the equilibrium infection level, it does affect both the timing and magnitude of both types of variability in infection level. © 2014, Society for Mathematical Biology.
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003677
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Evaluation of Inapparent Dengue Infections During an Outbreak in Southern China
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Few studies evaluating inapparent dengue virus (DENV) infections have been conducted in China. In 2013, a large outbreak of DENV occurred in the city of Zhongshan, located in Southern China, which provided an opportunity to assess the clinical spectrum of disease. During the outbreak, an investigation of 887 index case contacts was conducted to evaluate inapparent and symptomatic DENV infections. Post-outbreak, an additional 815 subjects from 4 towns with, and 350 subjects from 2 towns without reported autochthonous DENV transmission, as determined by clinical diagnosis, were evaluated for serological evidence of dengue IgG antibodies. Between July and November 2013, there were 19 imported and 809 autochthonous dengue cases reported in Zhongshan. Of 887 case contacts enrolled during the outbreak, 13 (1.5%) exhibited symptomatic DENV infection, while 28 (3.2%) were inapparent. The overall I:S ratio was 2.2:1 (95% CI: 1.1-4.2:1). Post-outbreak serological data showed that the proportion of DENV IgG antibody detection from the 4 towns with and the 2 towns without reported DENV transmission was 2.7% (95% CI: 1.6%-3.8%) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0-1.4%), respectively. The I:S ratio in the 3 towns where clinical dengue cases were predominately typed as DENV-1 was 11.0:1 (95% CI: 3.7-?:1). The ratio in the town where DENV-3 was predominately typed was 1.0:1 (95% CI: 0.5-?:1). In this cross-sectional study, data suggests a high I:S ratio during a documented outbreak in Zhongshan, Southern China. These results have important implications for dengue control, implying that inapparent cases might influence DENV transmission more than previously thought. © 2015 Wang et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003605
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Geographic Distribution and Mortality Risk Factors during the Cholera Outbreak in a Rural Region of Haiti, 2010-2011
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In 2010 and 2011, Haiti was heavily affected by a large cholera outbreak that spread throughout the country. Although national health structure-based cholera surveillance was rapidly initiated, a substantial number of community cases might have been missed, particularly in remote areas. We conducted a community-based survey in a large rural, mountainous area across four districts of the Nord department including areas with good versus poor accessibility by road, and rapid versus delayed response to the outbreak to document the true cholera burden and assess geographic distribution and risk factors for cholera mortality. A two-stage, household-based cluster survey was conducted in 138 clusters of 23 households in four districts of the Nord Department from April 22nd to May 13th 2011. A total of 3,187 households and 16,900 individuals were included in the survey, of whom 2,034 (12.0%) reported at least one episode of watery diarrhea since the beginning of the outbreak. The two more remote districts, Borgne and Pilate were most affected with attack rates up to 16.2%, and case fatality rates up to 15.2% as compared to the two more accessible districts. Care seeking was also less frequent in the more remote areas with as low as 61.6% of reported patients seeking care. Living in remote areas was found as a risk factor for mortality together with older age, greater severity of illness and not seeking care. These results highlight important geographical disparities and demonstrate that the epidemic caused the highest burden both in terms of cases and deaths in the most remote areas, where up to 5% of the population may have died during the first months of the epidemic. Adapted strategies are needed to rapidly provide treatment as well as prevention measures in remote communities. © 2015 Page et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003547
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Mexico
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010–2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000–253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75–171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010–2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151–292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38–2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87–209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62–1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36–99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003628
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Xenosurveillance: A Novel Mosquito-Based Approach for Examining the Human-Pathogen Landscape
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Globally, regions at the highest risk for emerging infectious diseases are often the ones with the fewest resources. As a result, implementing sustainable infectious disease surveillance systems in these regions is challenging. The cost of these programs and difficulties associated with collecting, storing and transporting relevant samples have hindered them in the regions where they are most needed. Therefore, we tested the sensitivity and feasibility of a novel surveillance technique called xenosurveillance. This approach utilizes the host feeding preferences and behaviors of Anopheles gambiae, which are highly anthropophilic and rest indoors after feeding, to sample viruses in human beings. We hypothesized that mosquito bloodmeals could be used to detect vertebrate viral pathogens within realistic field collection timeframes and clinically relevant concentrations. To validate this approach, we examined variables influencing virus detection such as the duration between mosquito blood feeding and mosquito processing, the pathogen nucleic acid stability in the mosquito gut and the pathogen load present in the host’s blood at the time of bloodmeal ingestion using our laboratory model. Our findings revealed that viral nucleic acids, at clinically relevant concentrations, could be detected from engorged mosquitoes for up to 24 hours post feeding by qRT-PCR. Subsequently, we tested this approach in the field by examining blood from engorged mosquitoes from two field sites in Liberia. Using next-generation sequencing and PCR we were able to detect the genetic signatures of multiple viral pathogens including Epstein-Barr virus and canine distemper virus.Together, these data demonstrate the feasibility of xenosurveillance and in doing so validated a simple and non-invasive surveillance tool that could be used to complement current biosurveillance efforts.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003594
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Epidemiological Changes in Leishmaniasis in Spain According to Hospitalization-Based Records, 1997–2011: Raising Awareness towards Leishmaniasis in Non-HIV Patients
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In Spain, Leishmania infantum is endemic, human visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis cases occurring both in the Peninsula, as well as in the Balearic Islands. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of leishmaniasis patients and the changes in the disease evolution after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in 1997. In this descriptive study, we used Spanish Centralized Hospital Discharge Database for the hospitalized leishmaniasis cases between 1997 and 2011. We included in the analysis only the records having leishmaniasis as the first registered diagnosis and calculated the hospitalization rates. Disease trend was described taking into account the HIV status. Adjusted odds-ratio was used to estimate the association between clinical and socio-demographic factors and HIV co-infection. Of the total 8010 Leishmaniasis hospitalizations records, 3442 had leishmaniasis as first diagnosis; 2545/3442 (75.6%) were males and 2240/3442 (65.1%) aged between 14-65 years. Regarding disease forms, 2844/3442 (82.6%) of hospitalizations were due to visceral leishmaniasis (VL), while 118/3442 (3.4%) hospitalizations were cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Overall, 1737/2844 of VL (61.1%) were HIV negatives. An overall increasing trend was observed for the records with leishmaniasis as first diagnosis (p=0.113). Non-HIV leishmaniasis increased during this time period (p=0.021) while leishmaniasis-HIV co-infection hospitalization revealed a slight descending trend (p=0.717). Leishmaniasis-HIV co-infection was significantly associated with male sex (aOR=1.6; 95% CI: 1.25-2.04), 16-64 years age group (aOR=17.4; 95%CI: 2.1-143.3), visceral leishmaniasis aOR=6.1 (95%CI: 3.27-11.28) and solid neoplasms 4.5 (95% CI: 1.65-12.04). The absence of HIV co-infection was associated with lymph/hematopoietic neoplasms (aOR=0.3; 95%CI:0.14-0.57), other immunodeficiency (aOR=0.04; 95% CI:0.01-0.32) and transplant (aOR=0.01; 95%CI:0.00-0.07). Our findings suggest a significant increase of
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003572
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<H2><p class = "ex">The Effect of Meteorological Variables on the Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Four Major Cities of Shanxi Province, China: A Time Series Data Analysis (2009-2013)
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. © 2015 Wei et al.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10393-014-0992-1
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998–2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ? = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province. © 2014, International Association for Ecology and Health.
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1541-8
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: During the 2009-2010 A(H1N1) pandemic, many people did not seek care quickly enough, failed to take a full course of antivirals despite being authorised to receive them, and were not vaccinated. Understanding facilitators and barriers to the uptake of vaccination and antiviral medicines will help inform campaigns in future pandemic influenza outbreaks. Increasing uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines may need to address a range of drivers of behaviour. The aim was to identify facilitators of and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines in uncertain and severe pandemic influenza scenarios using a theoretical model of behaviour change, COM-B. Methods: Focus groups and interviews with 71 members of the public in England who varied in their at-risk status. Participants responded to uncertain and severe scenarios, and to messages giving advice on vaccination and antiviral medicines. Data were thematically analysed using the theoretical framework provided by the COM-B model. Results: Influences on uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines - capabilities, motivations and opportunities - are part of an inter-related behavioural system and different components influenced each other. An identity of being healthy and immune from infection was invoked to explain feelings of invulnerability and hence a reduced need to be vaccinated, especially during an uncertain scenario. The identity of being a 'healthy person' also included beliefs about avoiding medicine and allowing the body to fight disease 'naturally'. This was given as a reason for using alternative precautionary behaviours to vaccination. This identity could be held by those not at-risk and by those who were clinically at-risk. Conclusions: Promoters and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines are multi-dimensional and communications to promote uptake are likely to be most effective if they address several components of behaviour. The benefit of using the COM-B mo
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1500-4
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<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. Methods: The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. Results: The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. Conclusions: The proposed simple app
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ083
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<H2><p class = "ex">Infectious disease modeling methods as tools for informing response to novel influenza viruses of unknown pandemic potential
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The rising importance of infectious disease modeling makes this an appropriate time for a guide for public health practitioners tasked with preparing for, and responding to, an influenza pandemic. We list several questions that public health practitioners commonly ask about pandemic influenza and match these with analytical methods, giving details on when during a pandemic the methods can be used, how long it might take to implement them, and what data are required. Although software to perform these tasks is available, care needs to be taken to understand: (1) the type of data needed, (2) the implementation of the methods, and (3) the interpretation of results in terms of model uncertainty and sensitivity. Public health leaders can use this article to evaluate the modeling literature, determine which methods can provide appropriate evidence for decision-making, and to help them request modeling work from in-house teams or academic groups. © 2015 The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.12.
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<H2><p class = "ex">A rationale to unify measurements of effectiveness for animal health surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Surveillance systems produce data which, once analysed and interpreted, support decisions regarding disease management. While several performance measures for surveillance are in use, no theoretical framework has been proposed yet with a rationale for defining and estimating effectiveness measures of surveillance systems in a generic way. An effective surveillance system is a system whose data collection, analysis and interpretation processes lead to decisions that are appropriate given the true disease status of the target population. Accordingly, we developed a framework accounting for sampling, testing and data interpretation processes, to depict in a probabilistic way the direction and magnitude of the discrepancy between "decisions that would be made if the true state of a population was known" and the "decisions that are actually made upon the analysis and interpretation of surveillance data". The proposed framework provides a theoretical basis for standardised quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of surveillance systems. We illustrate such approaches using hypothetical surveillance systems aimed at monitoring the prevalence of an endemic disease and at detecting an emerging disease as early as possible and with an empirical case study on a passive surveillance system aiming at detecting cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza cases in Vietnamese poultry. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/140966642
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Avian influenza dynamics under periodic environmental conditions
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Since wild birds are the major natural reservoir for all known influenza A viruses, understanding the ecology of avian influenza (AI) viruses circulating in wild birds is critical to predicting disease risk in wild and domestic birds and preventing transmission to humans. AI virus which is shed by infected birds into aquatic environments plays a pivotal role in the sustained transmission of AI. Recent laboratory experiments, however, show that viral persistence in water is highly sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, which varies seasonally and geographically. Here, we develop mathematical models to study the effects of time-varying environmental conditions on AI dynamics, deriving the effects of temperature on the basic reproductive number (R<inf>0</inf>), the final outbreak size, and the effective reproductive number (R<inf>e</inf>). For periodic environmental temperatures, we derive a mathematical formulation of an AI invasion threshold (R<inf>i</inf>) and conclude that apart from the mean temperature, the amplitude of the periodic temperature profile plays a significant role in the invasion of wild bird populations by AI. In particular, both higher means and higher amplitudes (warmer and more variable temperatures) reduce the likelihood of AI invasion. We also analyze the global dynamics of the model proving that AI is uniformly persistent in the wild bird population if R<inf>i</inf> > 1. In numerical work, we fit the model to recent experimental data and field survey data from Northern Europe. Two important and robust quantitative conclusions emerge: that direct transmission is negligible compared to indirect and that immunity wanes within about 4 weeks. The latter conclusion is of particular interest since many previous models assume lifetime immunity. We also demonstrate that time-varying temperature may be the underlying cause of several features of AI dynamics which are observed in real data. In particular, AI prevalence is observed to
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v21.i17.5295
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Acute gastroenteritis outbreak caused by a GII.6 norovirus
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Aim: To report an acute gastroenteritis outbreak caused by a genogroup 2 genotype 6 (GII.6) strain norovirus in Shanghai, China. Methods: Noroviruses are responsible for approximately half of all reported gastroenteritis outbreaks in many countries. Genogroup 2 genotype 4 strains are the most prevalent. Rare outbreaks caused by GII.6 strains have been reported. An acute gastroenteritis outbreak occurred in an elementary school in Shanghai in December of 2013. Field and molecular epidemiologic investigations were conducted. Results: The outbreak was limited to one class in an elementary school located in southwest Shanghai. The age of the students ranged from 9 to 10 years. The first case emerged on December 10, 2013, and the last case emerged on December 14, 2013. The cases peaked on December 11, 2013, with 21 new cases. Of 45 students in the class, 32 were affected. The main symptom was gastroenteritis and 15.6% (5/32) of the cases exhibited a fever. A field epidemiologic investigation showed the pathogen may have been transmitted to the elementary school from employees in a delicatessen via the first case student, who had eaten food from the delicatessen one day before the gastroenteritis episodes began. A molecular epidemiologic investigation identified the cause of the gastroenteritis as norovirus strain GII.6; the viral sequence of the student cases showed 100% homology with that of the shop employees. Genetic relatedness analyses showed that the new viral strain is closely related to previously reported GII.6 sequences, especially to a strain reported in Japan. Conclusion: This is the first report to show that norovirus strain GII.6 can cause a gastroenteritis outbreak. Thus, the prevalence of GII.6 noroviruses requires attention. © 2015 Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved. © 2015 The Author(s).
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ084
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Following the detection of a novel influenza strain A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5200-248 000 deaths; 4800-504 000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25 000-425 000 deaths; 580 000-3 700 000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined. © 2015 © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
</A></p>
<A name="article27" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ089
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Estimates of the demand for mechanical ventilation in the United States during an influenza pandemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">An outbreak in China in April 2013 of human illnesses due to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus provided reason for US public health officials to revisit existing national pandemic response plans. We built a spreadsheet model to examine the potential demand for invasive mechanical ventilation (excluding "rescue therapy" ventilation). We considered scenarios of either 20% or 30% gross influenza clinical attack rate (CAR), with a "low severity" scenario with case fatality rates (CFR) of 0.05%-0.1%, or a "high severity" scenario (CFR: 0.25%-0.5%). We used rates-of-influenza-related illness to calculate the numbers of potential clinical cases, hospitalizations, admissions to intensive care units, and need for mechanical ventilation. We assumed 10 days ventilator use per ventilated patient, 13% of total ventilator demand will occur at peak, and a 33.7% weighted average mortality risk while on a ventilator. At peak, for a 20% CAR, low severity scenario, an additional 7000 to 11 000 ventilators will be needed, averting a pandemic total of 35 000 to 55 000 deaths. A 30% CAR, high severity scenario, will need approximately 35 000 to 60 500 additional ventilators, averting a pandemic total 178 000 to 308 000 deaths. Estimates of deaths averted may not be realized because successful ventilation also depends on sufficient numbers of suitably trained staff, needed supplies (eg, drugs, reliable oxygen sources, suction apparatus, circuits, and monitoring equipment) and timely ability to match access to ventilators with critically ill cases. There is a clear challenge to plan and prepare to meet demands for mechanical ventilators for a future severe pandemic. © 2015 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article28" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2015.04.005
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Knowledge and risk perceptions of the Ebola virus in the United States
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objectives: The Ebola epidemic has received extensive media coverage since the first diagnosed cases of the virus in the US. We investigated risk perceptions of Ebola among individuals living in the US and measured their knowledge of the virus. Method: US residents completed an online survey (conducted 14-18 November 2014) that assessed their Ebola knowledge and risk perceptions. Results: Respondents who were more knowledgeable of Ebola perceived less risk of contracting the virus and were less worried about the virus, but also regarded Ebola as more serious than less knowledgeable respondents. The internet served as a major source of additional information among knowledgeable respondents. Conclusion: The findings suggest that the provision of health information about Ebola may be effective in informing the public about Ebola risks and of preventive measures without curtailing the seriousness of the virus. Policymakers may seek to further exploit the internet as a means of delivering information about Ebola in the US and worldwide. © 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article29" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ141
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Potential demand for respirators and surgical masks during a hypothetical influenza pandemic in the United States
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background.To inform planning for an influenza pandemic, we estimated US demand for N95 filtering facepiece respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care. Methods.We used a spreadsheet-based model to estimate demand for 3 scenarios of respirator use: base case (usage approximately follows epidemic curve), intermediate demand (usage rises to epidemic peak and then remains constant), and maximum demand (all healthcare workers use respirators from pandemic onset). We assumed that in the base case scenario, up to 16 respirators would be required per day per intensive care unit patient and 8 per day per general ward patient. Outpatient healthcare workers and emergency services personnel would require 4 respirators per day. Patients would require 1.2 surgical masks per day. Results and Conclusions.Assuming that 20% to 30% of the population would become ill, 1.7 to 3.5 billion respirators would be needed in the base case scenario, 2.6 to 4.3 billion in the intermediate demand scenario, and up to 7.3 billion in the maximum demand scenario (for all scenarios, between 0.1 and 0.4 billion surgical masks would be required for patients). For pandemics with a lower attack rate and fewer cases (eg, 2009-like pandemic), the number of respirators needed would be higher because the pandemic would have longer duration. Providing these numbers of respirators and surgical masks represents a logistic challenge for US public health agencies. Public health officials must urgently consider alternative use strategies for respirators and surgical masks during a pandemic that may vary from current practices. © 2015 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article30" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2684822.2697042
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Learning about health and medicine from internet data
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Surveys show that around 70% of US Internet users consult the Internet when they require medical information. People seek this information using both traditional search engines and via social media. The information created using the search process offers an unprecedented opportunity for applications to monitor and improve the quality of life of people with a variety of medical conditions. In recent years, research in this area has addressed public-health questions such as the effect of media on development of anorexia, developed tools for measuring influenza rates and assessing drug safety, and examined the effects of health information on individual wellbeing. This tutorial will show how Internet data can facilitate medical research, providing an overview of the state-of-the-art in this area. During the tutorial we will discuss the information which can be gleaned from a variety of Internet data sources, including social media, search engines, and specialized medical websites. We will provide an overview of analysis methods used in recent literature, and show how results can be evaluated using publicly available health information and online experimentation. Finally, we will discuss ethical and privacy issues and possible technological solutions. This tutorial is intended for researchers of user generated content who are interested in applying their knowledge to improve health and medicine. Copyright © 2015 ACM.
</A></p>
<A name="article31" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/acem.12642
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Ethical issues in the response to ebola virus disease in United States emergency departments: A position paper of the American college of emergency physicians, the emergency nurses
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has presented a significant public health crisis to the international health community and challenged U.S. emergency departments (EDs) to prepare for patients with a disease of exceeding rarity in developed nations. With the presentation of patients with Ebola to U.S. acute care facilities, ethical questions have been raised in both the press and medical literature as to how U.S. EDs, emergency physicians (EPs), emergency nurses, and other stakeholders in the health care system should approach the current epidemic and its potential for spread in the domestic environment. To address these concerns, the American College of Emergency Physicians, the Emergency Nurses Association, and the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine developed this joint position paper to provide guidance to U.S. EPs, emergency nurses, and other stakeholders in the health care system on how to approach the ethical dilemmas posed by the outbreak of EVD. This paper will address areas of immediate and potential ethical concern to U.S. EDs in how they approach preparation for and management of potential patients with EVD. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.
</A></p>
<A name="article32" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.00
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Changes in the prevalence of influenza-like illness and influenza vaccine uptake among Hajj pilgrims: A 10-year retrospective analysis of data
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">M.
</A></p>
<A name="article33" href ='http://dx.doi.org/UniversityofSydneySydney
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">University of SydneySydney
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">School of Biological Sciences and Sydney Medical School
</A></p>
<A name="article34" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ086
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: Exploring two different contact matrices
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background. School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain. Methods. To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ?65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts. Results.For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases. Conclusions. Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks. © 2015 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article35" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.arcmed.2015.03.001
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Seroprevalence of pandemic A(H1N1) pmd09 virus antibodies in Mexican health care workers before and after vaccination
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background and Aims: In April 2009, a new strain of influenza A(H1N1) was identified in Mexico and in the U.S. In June 2009, WHO declared this a pandemic. Health care workers constituted a risk group for their close contact with infected individuals. The aim was to estimate seropositivity for A(H1N1)pdm09 in health staff at the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social. Methods: A two-stage cross-sectional study, before and after vaccination in the same workers, was performed on a random sample of health-care workers. A socio-occupational questionnaire was applied and serum antibodies against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were determined through neutralization of retroviral pseudotypes; two logistic regression models for both were constructed. Results: The average (median/mean) age of 1378 participants from 13 work centers was 41.7 years and 68.7% (947) were women. Seroprevalence for the first stage was 26.5% (365) (7.4-43%) vs. 20.8% (11) in a control group from the blood bank; for the second stage, the vaccinated group was 33% (215) (18.2-47%) and 27% (196) (11.6-50%) for the unvaccinated group. In regression models, seropositivity was associated with occupational exposure to suspected influenza infected patients, being physicians, and being vaccinated. Conclusions: Seropositivity against pandemic virus is similar to what was reported, both for vaccinated (2.8-40.9%) and unvaccinated (18.8-64.7%). Low seroprevalence in the vaccinated group indicates that between 67% and 73% were susceptible to infection. Given the relatively low vaccine-induced seropositivity, it is imperative to increase, hygiene and safety for health staff and at-risk populations, and strengthen epidemiological surveillance. © 2015 IMSS.
</A></p>
<A name="article36" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/140241
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Context-dependent conservation responses to emerging wildlife diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Emerging infectious diseases pose an important threat to wildlife. While established protocols exist for combating outbreaks of human and agricultural pathogens, appropriate management actions before, during, and after the invasion of wildlife pathogens have not been developed. We describe stage-specific goals and management actions that minimize disease impacts on wildlife, and the research required to implement them. Before pathogen arrival, reducing the probability of introduction through quarantine and trade restrictions is key because prevention is more cost effective than subsequent responses. On the invasion front, the main goals are limiting pathogen spread and preventing establishment. In locations experiencing an epidemic, management should focus on reducing transmission and disease, and promoting the development of resistance or tolerance. Finally, if pathogen and host populations reach a stable stage, then recovery of host populations in the face of new threats is paramount. Successful management of wildlife disease requires risk-taking, rapid implementation, and an adaptive approach. © The Ecological Society of America.
</A></p>
<A name="article37" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2015.03.011
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Respiratory viruses in airline travellers with influenza symptoms: Results of an airport screening study
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: There is very little known about the prevalence and distribution of respiratory viruses, other than influenza, in international air travellers and whether symptom screening would aid in the prediction of which travellers are more likely to be infected with specific respiratory viruses. Objectives: In this study, we investigate whether, the use of a respiratory symptom screening tool at the border would aid in predicting which travellers are more likely to be infected with specific respiratory viruses. Study design: Data were collected from travellers arriving at Christchurch International Airport, New Zealand, during the winter 2008, via a symptom questionnaire, temperature testing, and respiratory sampling. Results: Respiratory viruses were detected in 342 (26.0%) of 1313 samples obtained from 2714 symptomatic travellers. The most frequently identified viruses were rhinoviruses (128), enteroviruses (77) and influenza B (48). The most frequently reported symptoms were stuffy or runny nose (60%), cough (47%), sore throat (27%) and sneezing (24%). Influenza B infections were associated with the highest number of symptoms (mean of 3.4) followed by rhinoviruses (mean of 2.2) and enteroviruses (mean of 1.9). The positive predictive value (PPV) of any symptom for any respiratory virus infection was low at 26%. Conclusions: The high prevalence of respiratory virus infections caused by viruses other than influenza in this study, many with overlapping symptotology to influenza, has important implications for any screening strategies for the prediction of influenza in airline travellers. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article38" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.03.02
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Increasing influenza vaccination in New York City taxi drivers: A community driven approach
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The Healthy People 2020 influenza immunization goal is 80% for non-institutionalized adults 18-64. However, vaccination rates remain stubbornly low. Culturally tailored approaches to communities with poor vaccine uptake are necessary. Taxi drivers are at risk for influenza and its complications, could serve as vectors for influenza infection, and could be an effective vaccination target to enhance herd immunity of the urban population. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study related to influenza vaccination among taxi drivers. The NYC Taxi Network surveyed a convenience sample of 53 taxi drivers to understand vaccination barriers. Only 17% had been vaccinated. Results informed a pilot tailored workplace intervention, which resulted in vaccinations for 44% of unvaccinated drivers. The study revealed that older drivers were more likely to be vaccinated than younger drivers, while the most common barrier to immunization was that drivers thought vaccination was 'not necessary'. © 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article39" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2015.03.018
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Neuraminidase inhibitor therapy in a military population
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Although neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) are the mainstay of treatment for influenza infection, prescribing practice for these agents is not well described. Additionally, benefit is contested. Objectives: We examined provider prescriptions of NI during the 2009 pandemic and post-pandemic periods. We also evaluated the effectiveness of NI in reducing severity of influenza infection. Study design: Data on NI prescription and severity of influenza infection were compiled in healthy pediatric and adult beneficiaries enrolled in a prospective study of influenza like illness conducted at five military medical centers over five years. Subjects underwent nasal swabs to determine viral etiology of their infection. Demographic, medication and severity data were collected. Subjects with positive influenza were included. Results: Two hundred sixty three subjects were influenza positive [38% [H1N1] pdm09, 38.4% H3N2, and 20.5% B); 23.9% were treated with NI. NI were initiated within 48. h in 63% of treated subjects. Although NI use increased over the five years of the study, early use declined. Most measures for severity of illness were not significantly reduced with NI; adults treated within 48. h had only a modest reduction in duration and severity of some of their symptoms. Conclusions: NI use in our population is increasing, but early use is not. NI use resulted in no reduction in complications of illness. Resolution of symptoms and reduction in severity of some symptoms were slightly better in adults who were treated early. These modest benefits do not support routine treatment with NI in otherwise healthy individuals with influenza. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article40" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsat.2015.01.005
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Factors associated with hospitalization for blood-borne viral infections among treatment-seeking illicit drug users
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Blood-borne viral infections (BBVIs) are important health consequences of illicit drug use. This study assessed predictors of inpatient hospital admissions for BBVIs in a cohort of 4817 clients seeking treatment for drug use in Finland. We examined clients' data on hospital admissions registered in the Finnish National Hospital Discharge Register from 1997 to 2010 with diagnoses of BBVIs. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were separately conducted for each of the three BBVI groups to test for association between baseline variables and hospitalizations. Findings were reported as adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs). Based upon primary discharge diagnoses, 81 clients were hospitalized for HIV, 116 for hepatitis C, and 45 for other types of hepatitis. Compared to those admitted for hepatitis C and other hepatitis, drug users with HIV had higher total number of hospital admissions (294 versus 141 and 50 respectively), higher crude hospitalization rate (7.1 versus 3.4.and 1.2 per 1000 person-years respectively), and higher total length of hospital stay (2857 days versus 279 and 308 respectively). Trends in hospitalization for all BBVI groups declined at the end of follow-up. HIV positive status at baseline (aHR: 6.58) and longer duration of drug use (aHR: 1.11) were independently associated with increased risk for HIV hospitalization. Female gender (aHR: 3.05) and intravenous use of primary drug (aHR: 2.78) were significantly associated with HCV hospitalization. Having hepatitis B negative status at baseline (aHR: 0.25) reduced the risk of other hepatitis hospitalizations. Illicit drug use coexists with blood-borne viral infections. To address this problem, clinicians treating infectious diseases need to also identify drug use in their patients and provide drug treatment information and/or referral. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article41" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.02.
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Bovine abortion is the main clinical sign of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which France has been declared officially free since 2005. To ensure the early detection of any brucellosis outbreak, event-driven surveillance relies on the mandatory notification of bovine abortions and the brucellosis testing of aborting cows. However, the under-reporting of abortions appears frequent. Our objectives were to assess the aptitude of the bovine abortion surveillance system to detect each and every bovine abortion and to identify factors influencing the system's effectiveness. We evaluated five attributes defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control with a method suited to each attribute: (1) data quality was studied quantitatively and qualitatively, as this factor considerably influences data analysis and results; (2) sensitivity and representativeness were estimated using a unilist capture-recapture approach to quantify the surveillance system's effectiveness; (3) acceptability and simplicity were studied through qualitative interviews of actors in the field, given that the surveillance system relies heavily on abortion notifications by farmers and veterinarians. Our analysis showed that (1) data quality was generally satisfactory even though some errors might be due to actors' lack of awareness of the need to collect accurate data; (2) from 2006 to 2011, the mean annual sensitivity - i.e. the proportion of farmers who reported at least one abortion out of all those who detected such events - was around 34%, but was significantly higher in dairy than beef cattle herds (highlighting a lack of representativeness); (3) overall, the system's low sensitivity was related to its low acceptability and lack of simplicity. This study showed that, in contrast to policy-makers, most farmers and veterinarians perceived the risk of a brucellosis outbreak as negligible. They did not consider sporadic abortions as a suspected case of brucellosis and usually reported abortions only to
</A></p>
<A name="article42" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiu530
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">How low is the risk of influenza A(H5N1) infection?
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">[No abstract available]
</A></p>
<A name="article43" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/vr.102979
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Economic comparison of the monitoring programmes for bluetongue vectors in Austria and Switzerland
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">With the bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in 2006, vector monitoring programmes (according to EU regulation 1266/2007) were implemented by European countries to obtain information on the spatial distribution of vectors and the vector-free period. This study investigates the vector monitoring programmes in Austria and Switzerland by performing a retrospective cost analysis for the period 2006-2010. Two types of costs were distinguished: costs financed directly via the national bluetongue programmes and costs contributed in-kind by the responsible institutions and agricultural holdings. The total net costs of the monitoring programme in Austria amounted to €1,415,000, whereby in Switzerland the costs were valued at €94,000. Both countries followed the legislation complying with requirements, but differed in regard to sampling frequency, number of trap sites and sampling strategy. Furthermore, the surface area of Austria is twice the area of Switzerland although the number of ruminants is almost the same in both countries. Thus, for comparison, the costs were normalised with regard to the sampling frequency and the number of trap sites. Resulting costs per trap sample comprised €164 for Austria and €48 for Switzerland. In both countries, around 50 per cent of the total costs can be attributed to payments in-kind. The benefit of this study is twofold: first, veterinary authorities may use the results to improve the economic efficiency of future vector monitoring programmes. Second, the analysis of the payment in-kind contribution is of great importance to public authorities as it makes the available resources visible and demonstrates how they have been used. © 2015 Veterinary Record.
</A></p>
<A name="article44" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Responding to the Ebola virus disease in West Africa: Lessons for India
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">[No abstract available]
</A></p>
<A name="article45" href ='http://dx.doi.org/
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">The integration of social, behavioral, and biological mechanisms in models of pathogenesis
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">A large part of contemporary medicine is concerned with describing and understanding the biological mechanisms involved in disease causation. Comparatively less attention has been paid to the socioeconomic and behavioral mechanisms underlying disease. This article argues for an integration of social, behavioral, and biological factors in the explanation of pathogenesis, a perspective that is in accord with the vision of pioneer public health practitioners of the 19th century, but that has gradually been overtaken by the dominance of the biomedical disease model. In recent decades, the social components of disease have been depicted as “distal” factors or used as “classificatory” devices. We explain how the integration we propose, which draws upon the concepts of “mixed mechanism” and of “lifeworld,” advances the view of several scholars of the recent past. Finally, we discuss new findings in epigenetics and psychology, where socioeconomic disparities appear to be an integral part of the explanation of health conditions, to illustrate how the integration may work in practice. © 2015 by Johns Hopkins University Press.
</A></p>
<A name="article46" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00480169.2014.966168
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Prevalence of endemic enteropathogens of calves in New Zealand dairy farms
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">AIM: To conduct a country-wide prevalence study of bovine group A rotavirus, coronavirus, Cryptosporidium parvum, Salmonella spp. and enterotoxigenic K99+ Escherichia coli (K99) in calves on New Zealand dairy farms. METHODS: Faecal samples (n=1,283) were collected during the 2011 calving season from calves that were 1–5 and 9–21 days-old on 97 dairy farms, and were analysed for the presence of bovine group A rotavirus, coronavirus, Cryptosporidium and Salmonella spp., and K99. Farm-level prevalences were calculated and relationships between demographic variables and the presence of enteropathogens were examined using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 97 farms, 93 (96%) had at least one sample infected with enteropathogens. The standardised farm prevalences of bovine group A rotavirus, bovine coronavirus and C. parvum were 46, 14 and 18%, respectively, in calves that were 1–5 days-old, and 57, 31 and 52%, respectively, in calves that were 9–21 days-old. The farm-level prevalence of K99 was 11% in calves that were 1–5 days-old. Salmonella spp. were found in three and four samples, from calves that were 1–5 and 9–21 days-old, respectively. No associations between explanatory variables and the presence of the enteropathogens were identified at the farm level. At the calf level, the odds of C. parvum shedding and of co-infection with any combination of pathogens were greater in calves that were 9–21 than 1–5 days-old. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study provides epidemiological estimates of the prevalence of calves’ enteropathogens in New Zealand, which could be used for infection risk assessment or estimation of the environmental loads of pathogens shed in cattle faeces. © 2015 New Zealand Veterinary Association.
</A></p>
<A name="article47" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs70201798
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Comparison of spatiotemporal fusion models: A review
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Simultaneously capturing spatial and temporal dynamics is always a challenge for the remote sensing community. Spatiotemporal fusion has gained wide interest in various applications for its superiority in integrating both fine spatial resolution and frequent temporal coverage. Though many advances have been made in spatiotemporal fusion model development and applications in the past decade, a unified comparison among existing fusion models is still limited. In this research, we classify the models into three categories: transformation-based, reconstruction-based, and learning-based models. The objective of this study is to (i) compare four fusion models (STARFM, ESTARFM, ISTAFM, and SPSTFM) under a one Landsat-MODIS (L-M) pair prediction mode and two L-M pair prediction mode using time-series datasets from the Coleambally irrigation area and Poyang Lake wetland; (ii) quantitatively assess prediction accuracy considering spatiotemporal comparability, landscape heterogeneity, and model parameter selection; and (iii) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three categories of spatiotemporal fusion models.
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info)
<b>(*login required)<br></b> </span> </a>
</div></div><br></div></body></html>
ISDSResearchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13549075890603467114noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-10547045859894561142015-05-15T20:55:00.000-04:002015-05-15T20:55:43.472-04:00Mumps & Pertussis MMGs - Comments due May 22<div class="p1">
CDC has announced a second external review for the mumps and pertussis message mapping guides (MMG), which opened today, Wednesday, April 29 and will close <b>Friday, May 22</b>. The draft MMGs and related documents (e.g., revised PHIN Case Notification Message Structure Specification Release 3.0) are available on the <a href="http://wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/script/DraftMMG.aspx"><span class="s1">NNDSS Draft Message Mapping Guides website</span></a> for jurisdictions to review. *Please send feedback to <a href="mailto:edx@cdc.gov"><span class="s1">edx@cdc.gov</span></a> with the following subject lines: “Mumps MMG Feedback”, “Pertussis MMG Feedback”, or “Mumps and Pertussis MMG Feedback”.</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s2">Background</span></div>
<div class="p2">
The first external review for these MMGs took place from April 14, 2014 to May 26, 2014. The feedback CDC’s response to that feedback was summarized and distributed to CSTE’s Surveillance Implementation and Practice Subcommittee on July 24, 2014.</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p3">
What’s New in this Review?</div>
<div class="p3">
The following changes were made to the MMGs since the first external review period:</div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s3">·</span><span class="s4"> </span>Data elements that have been added since the previous review at the request of the program are highlighted in yellow in the excel spreadsheets posted online for this review. Data elements that have been added since the previous review as part of restructuring efforts or the lab and vaccine templates (not at the request of the program) are highlighted in green in the excel spreadsheets posted online for this review.</div>
<div class="p5">
<span class="s3">·</span><span class="s4"> </span>The MMGs have been restructured in accordance with recommendations from an Internal MMG Restructuring Workgroup. A detailed summary of the recommendations of the workgroup are posted on the draft MMG website, in the document titled “Case Notification Message Restructuring: A Summary of Structural and Content Changes”. The PHIN Case Notification Message Structure Specification has also been updated to reflect changes and is posted on the draft MMG website. In summary:</div>
<div class="p6">
<span class="s5">o</span><span class="s4"> </span>Data elements in the Epidemiologic section are sent as question/answer pairs, as specified in the PHIN case notification message specification</div>
<div class="p6">
<span class="s5">o</span><span class="s4"> </span>The Laboratory and Vaccine Template sections support the inclusion of laboratory and vaccination findings in the case notification and are consistent with templates that were developed by the MMG Restructuring Workgroup. The summary of the data elements in the vaccine and laboratory templates are listed within the “Case Notification Message Restructuring: A Summary of Structural and Content Changes” document on the draft MMG website.</div>
<div class="p6">
<span class="s5">o</span><span class="s4"> </span>As a result of opening the HL7 structure in the PHIN message specification (PHIN Message Structure Specification Release 3.0), elements in the Laboratory Template section can be transmitted in a manner that is similar to the ELR HL7 specification. This is noted in the columns labeled “HL7 Message Context”, “HL7 Data Type”, “HL7 Usage”, “HL7 Cardinality”, and “HL7 Implementation Notes.”</div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s3">·</span><span class="s4"> </span>Implementation notes were updated with information on how unknown and missing values for date and numeric fields should be sent.</div>
<div class="p4">
<span class="s3">·</span><span class="s4"> </span>Question-specific identifiers (PHIN Unique Identifiers) were replaced with standard identifiers for the question concept (e.g., LOINC)</div>
<div class="p5">
<span class="s3">·</span><span class="s4"> </span>HL7 implementation notes provide information on mapping data elements to specific HL7 segment field locations.</div>
<div class="p3">
<br /></div>
<div class="p3">
Specific Feedback Requested from the MMG Review:</div>
<div class="p5">
1.<span class="s4"> </span>Comments on:</div>
<div class="p7">
a.<span class="s4"> </span>Whether the new data elements (highlighted in yellow or green) are information that you are likely to be able to obtain.</div>
<div class="p7">
b.<span class="s4"> </span>Collection and transmission of the data elements to CDC and completeness of the valid values.</div>
<div class="p7">
c.<span class="s4"> </span>Whether the implementation notes are clear or need clarification.</div>
<div class="p7">
d.<span class="s4"> </span>Changes in the structure and format of the message.</div>
<br />
<div class="p5">
2.<span class="s4"> </span>Please provide feedback on data element VAC102 (vaccination record ID). Is this generated from the sender’s vaccine record system?</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-25611642217379413342015-05-12T20:55:00.003-04:002015-05-12T20:55:43.923-04:00Join the ISDS Team!ISDS is hiring a Senior Public Health Analyst. Learn more <a href="http://www.syndromic.org/storage/documents/About-ISDS/jobs/ISDS_Senior_PH_Analyst_JOB_DESCRIPTION.DRAFT04072015-1.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>! Any questions regarding the position can be directed to <a href="mailto:careers@syndromic.org">careers@syndromic.org</a>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8644413111437271483.post-40628866456647618782015-05-11T13:15:00.002-04:002015-05-11T13:15:53.800-04:00Research Committee Articles of the Week, May 11, 2015<html>
<head>
<style>p.ex { width: 800;}.indented { padding-left: 50; padding-right: 50; }</style>
<title>Articles from May_11_2015 </title><h1> Research Committee Selected Articles for the Week of May_11_2015</h1><div class='branch'><a name='IDX'></a><div><div align='left'> <ul>
<span style="font-size:200%;color:yellow;">★</span>
<span style="font-size:150%;color:green;"> ***-Article is considered for Award Nomination*** </span>
<li><a href = #article1><p class = 'ex'>Takahashi B., Tandoc E.C., Carmichael C.
<i>Communicating on Twitter during a disaster: An analysis of tweets during Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article2><p class = 'ex'>Stirling B.V., Harmston J., Alsobayel H.
<i>An educational programme for nursing college staff and students during a MERS- coronavirus outbreak in Saudi Arabia
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article3><p class = 'ex'>Korzeniewski K., Nitsch-Osuch A., Konior M., Lass A.
<i>Respiratory tract infections in the military environment
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article4><p class = 'ex'>Hardstaff J.L., Hasler B., Rushton J.R.
<i>Livestock trade networks for guiding animal health surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article5><p class = 'ex'>Rubinstein H., Marcu A., Yardley L., Michie S.
<i>Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article6><p class = 'ex'>Chan T.-C., Teng Y.-C., Hwang J.-S.
<i>Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article7><p class = 'ex'>Levine A.C., Shetty P.P., Burbach R., Cheemalapati S., Glavis-Bloom J., Wiskel T., Kesselly J.K.T.
<i>Derivation and Internal Validation of the Ebola Prediction Scorefor Risk Stratification of Patients With Suspected EbolaVirusDisease
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article8><p class = 'ex'>Hossain L., Hassan M.R., Wigand R.T.
<i>Resilient information networks for coordination of foodborne disease outbreaks
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article9><p class = 'ex'>Vial F., Berezowski J.
<i>A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article10><p class = 'ex'>Gesser-Edelsburg A., Stolero N., Mordini E., Billingsley M., James J.J., Green M.S.
<i>Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak: Literature review (2009-2013) of the methodology used for EID communication analysis
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article11><p class = 'ex'>Hossain L., Bdeir F., Crawford J.W., Wigand R.T.
<i>Networks of preparedness and response during Australian H1N1 outbreak
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article12><p class = 'ex'>Pagani L., Thomas Y., Huttner B., Sauvan V., Notaridis G., Kaiser L., Iten A., Pittet D., Harbarth S
<i>Transmission and effect of multiple clusters of seasonal influenza in a swiss geriatric hospital
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article13><p class = 'ex'>Grosbois V., Hasler B., Peyre M., Hiep D.T., Vergne T.
<i>A rationale to unify measurements of effectiveness for animal health surveillance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article14><p class = 'ex'>Kim Y., Zhong W., Jehn M., Walsh L.
<i>Public risk perceptions and preventive behaviors during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article15><p class = 'ex'>Nakata K., Fujieda M., Miki H., Fukushima W., Ohfuji S., Maeda A., Kase T., Hirota Y.
<i>Detection of influenza vaccine effectiveness among nursery school children: Lesson from a season with cocirculating respiratory syncytial virus
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article16><p class = 'ex'>Bults M., Beaujean D.J.M.A., Richardus J.H., Voeten H.A.C.M.
<i>Perceptions and behavioral responses of the general public during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: A systematic review
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article17><p class = 'ex'>Fries A.C., Nolting J.M., Bowman A.S., Lin X., Halpin R.A., Wester E., Fedorova N., Stockwell T.B.,
<i>Spread and persistence of influenza A viruses in waterfowl hosts in the North American Mississippi migratory flyway
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article18><p class = 'ex'>Staley M., Bonneaud C.
<i>Immune responses of wild birds to emerging infectious diseases
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article19><p class = 'ex'>Kang H., Fu X.
<i>Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article20><p class = 'ex'>Yang K., Wang E., Zhou Y., Zhou K.
<i>Optimal vaccination policy and cost analysis for epidemic control in resource-limited settings
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article21><p class = 'ex'>Onyeka I.N., Olubamwo O., Beynon C.M., Ronkainen K., Fohr J., Tiihonen J., Tuomola P., Tasa N., Kauh
<i>Factors associated with hospitalization for blood-borne viral infections among treatment-seeking illicit drug users
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article22><p class = 'ex'>Cloes R., Ahmad A., Reintjes R.
<i>Risk communication during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: Stakeholder experiences from eight European countries
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article23><p class = 'ex'>Bronner A., Gay E., Fortane N., Palussiere M., Hendrikx P., Henaux V., Calavas D.
<i>Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article24><p class = 'ex'>Coughlan E., Young H., Parkes C., Coshall M., Dickson N., Psutka R., Saxton P., Pink R., Adams K.
<i>A novel response to an outbreak of infectious syphilis in Christchurch, New Zealand
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article25><p class = 'ex'>Aarestrup F.M.
<i>The livestock reservoir for antimicrobial resistance: A personal view on changing patterns of risks, effects of interventions and the way forward
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article26><p class = 'ex'>Solomon M.M., Mayer K.H.
<i>Evolution of the syphilis epidemic among men who have sex with men
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article27><p class = 'ex'>Barak-Corren Y., Reis B.Y.
<i>Internet activity as a proxy for vaccination compliance
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article28><p class = 'ex'>Campbell P.T., McCaw J.M., McVernon J.
<i>Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy
</p></a></i></li>
<li><a href = #article29><p class = 'ex'>Quintero-Herrera L.L., Ramirez-Jaramillo V., Bernal-Gutierrez S., Cardenas-Giraldo E.V., Guerrero-Ma
<i>Potential impact of climatic variability on the epidemiology of dengue in Risaralda, Colombia, 2010-2011
</p></a></i></li>
</ul>
<A name="article1" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2015.04.020
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Communicating on Twitter during a disaster: An analysis of tweets during Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Social media in crisis situations, such as natural disasters, have been recognized by scholars and practitioners as key communication channels that can complement traditional channels. However, there is limited empirical examination from the user perspective of the functions that social media play and the factors that explain such uses. In this study we examine Twitter use during and after Typhoon Haiyan pummeled the Philippines. We tested a typology of Twitter use based on previous research, and explored external factors - time of use and geographic location - and internal factors - type of stakeholders (e.g. ordinary citizens, journalists, etc.) and social media engagement - to predict these uses. The results showed that different stakeholders used social media mostly for dissemination of second-hand information, in coordinating relief efforts, and in memorializing those affected. Recommendations for future research and applications in future crises are also presented. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article2" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12912-015-0065-y
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">An educational programme for nursing college staff and students during a MERS- coronavirus outbreak in Saudi Arabia
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: The Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus is a serious and emerging issue in Saudi Arabia and the world. A response was required to reduce possible disease transmission between the hospital and university. College of Nursing academic staff developed a programme in response to the educational and emotional needs of participants. Methods: A MERS-CoV Task Force responded to the rapidly unfolding epidemic. The aim was to find out what nursing staff and nursing students in the college knew about MERS- CoV. While most gaps in knowledge were addressed after an intense information seminar, other learning needs were identified and responded to. Results: The total number of people attending the education sessions was133, including 65 students. 18 faculty members attended and 57 support staff. Data was gathered on gaps in participant knowledge and a plan was developed to address the gaps. Policies were established around student participation in clinical and return to work practices for staff with any symptoms. Conclusion: In hospitals there is above average risk for exposure to infectious diseases. Student nurses travel between hospital and university, with the capacity to act as a conduit of pathogens to large, susceptible populations. Nursing colleges must respond thoroughly to protect students and staff and prevent spread of disease into the university community in the midst of an epidemic. © Stirling et al.; licensee BioMed Central.
</A></p>
<A name="article3" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resp.2014.09.016
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Respiratory tract infections in the military environment
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Military personnel fighting in contemporary battlefields as well as those participating in combat training are at risk of contracting respiratory infections. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that soldiers deployed to the harsh environment have higher rates of newly reported respiratory symptoms than non-deployers. Acute respiratory diseases are the principle reason for outpatient treatment and hospitalization among military personnel, with an incidence exceeding that of the adult civilian population by up to three-fold. Adenoviruses, influenza A and B viruses, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes, coronaviruses and rhinoviruses have been identified as the main causes of acute respiratory infections among the military population. Although infective pathogens have been extensively studied, a significant proportion of illnesses (over 40%) have been due to unknown causative agents. Other health hazards, which can lead to respiratory illnesses among troops, are extreme air temperatures, desert dust, emissions from burn pits, industrial pollutants, and airborne contaminants originating from degraded soil. Limited diagnostic capabilities, especially inside the area of operations, make it difficult to accurately estimate the exact number of respiratory diseases in the military environment. The aim of the study was to discuss the occurrence of respiratory tract infections in army personnel, existing risk factors and preventive measures. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article4" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0354-4
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Livestock trade networks for guiding animal health surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Trade in live animals can contribute to the introduction of exotic diseases, the maintenance and spread endemic diseases. Annually millions of animals are moved across Europe for the purposes of breeding, fattening and slaughter. Data on the number of animals moved were obtained from the Directorate General Sanco (DG Sanco) for 2011. These were converted to livestock units to enable direct comparison across species and their movements were mapped, used to calculate the indegrees and outdegrees of 27 European countries and the density and transitivity of movements within Europe. This provided the opportunity to discuss surveillance of European livestock movement taking into account stopping points en-route. Results: High density and transitivity of movement for registered equines, breeding and fattening cattle, breeding poultry and pigs for breeding, fattening and slaughter indicates that hazards have the potential to spread quickly within these populations. This is of concern to highly connected countries particularly those where imported animals constitute a large proportion of their national livestock populations, and have a high indegree. The transport of poultry (older than 72hours) and unweaned animals would require more rest breaks than the movement of weaned animals, which may provide more opportunities for disease transmission. Transitivity is greatest for animals transported for breeding purposes with cattle, pigs and poultry having values of over 50%. Conclusions: This paper demonstrated that some species (pigs and poultry) are traded much more frequently and at a larger scale than species such as goats. Some countries are more vulnerable than others due to importing animals from many countries, having imported animals requiring rest-breaks and importing large proportions of their national herd or flock. Such knowledge about the vulnerability of different livestock systems related to trade movements can be used to inform the design of animal he
</A></p>
<A name="article5" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1541-8
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Public preferences for vaccination and antiviral medicines under different pandemic flu outbreak scenarios
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: During the 2009-2010 A(H1N1) pandemic, many people did not seek care quickly enough, failed to take a full course of antivirals despite being authorised to receive them, and were not vaccinated. Understanding facilitators and barriers to the uptake of vaccination and antiviral medicines will help inform campaigns in future pandemic influenza outbreaks. Increasing uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines may need to address a range of drivers of behaviour. The aim was to identify facilitators of and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines in uncertain and severe pandemic influenza scenarios using a theoretical model of behaviour change, COM-B. Methods: Focus groups and interviews with 71 members of the public in England who varied in their at-risk status. Participants responded to uncertain and severe scenarios, and to messages giving advice on vaccination and antiviral medicines. Data were thematically analysed using the theoretical framework provided by the COM-B model. Results: Influences on uptake of vaccines and antiviral medicines - capabilities, motivations and opportunities - are part of an inter-related behavioural system and different components influenced each other. An identity of being healthy and immune from infection was invoked to explain feelings of invulnerability and hence a reduced need to be vaccinated, especially during an uncertain scenario. The identity of being a 'healthy person' also included beliefs about avoiding medicine and allowing the body to fight disease 'naturally'. This was given as a reason for using alternative precautionary behaviours to vaccination. This identity could be held by those not at-risk and by those who were clinically at-risk. Conclusions: Promoters and barriers to being vaccinated and taking antiviral medicines are multi-dimensional and communications to promote uptake are likely to be most effective if they address several components of behaviour. The benefit of using the COM-B mo
</A></p>
<A name="article6" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-1500-4
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Background: Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. Methods: The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. Results: The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. Conclusions: The proposed simple app
</A></p>
<A name="article7" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annemergmed.2015.03.011
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Derivation and Internal Validation of the Ebola Prediction Scorefor Risk Stratification of Patients With Suspected EbolaVirusDisease
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Study objective: The current outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa is the largest on record and has overwhelmed the capacity of local health systems and the international community to provide sufficient isolation and treatment of all suspected cases. The goal of this study is to develop a clinical prediction model that can help clinicians risk-stratify patients with suspected Ebola virus disease in the context of such an epidemic. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed of patient data collected during routine clinical care at the Bong County Ebola Treatment Unit in Liberia during its first 16 weeks of operation. The predictive power of 14 clinical and epidemiologic variables was measured against the primary outcome of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease, using logistic regression to develop a final prediction model. Bootstrap sampling was used to assess the internal validity of the model and estimate its performance in a simulated validation cohort. Results: Ebola virus disease testing results were available for 382 (97%) of 395 patients admitted to the Ebola treatment unit during the study period. A total of 160 patients (42%) tested positive for Ebola virus disease. Logistic regression analysis identified 6 variables independently predictive of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease, including sick contact, diarrhea, loss of appetite, muscle pains, difficulty swallowing, and absence of abdominal pain. The Ebola Prediction Score, constructed with these 6 variables, had an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.80) for the prediction of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease. Patients with higher Ebola Prediction Scores had higher likelihoods of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease. Conclusion: The Ebola Prediction Score can be used by clinicians as an adjunct to current Ebola virus disease case definitions to risk-stratify patients with suspected Ebola virus disease. Clinicians
</A></p>
<A name="article8" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.161
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Resilient information networks for coordination of foodborne disease outbreaks
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Foodborne disease outbreaks are increasingly being seen as a greater concern by public health authorities. It has also become a global research agenda to identify improved pathways to coordinating outbreak detection. Furthermore, a significant need exists for timely coordination of the detection of potential foodborne disease outbreaks to reduce the number of infected individuals and the overall impact on public health security. This study aimed to offer an effective approach for coordinating foodborne disease outbreaks. First, we identify current coordination processes, complexities, and challenges. We then explore social media surveillance strategies, usage, and the power of these strategies to influence decision-making. Finally, based on informal (social media) and formal (organizational) surveillance approaches, we propose a hybrid information network model for improving the coordination of outbreak detection. Copyright © 2015 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article9" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.11.015
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The field of animal syndromic surveillance (SyS) is growing, with many systems being developed worldwide. Now is an appropriate time to share ideas and lessons learned from early SyS design and implementation. Based on our practical experience in animal health SyS, with additions from the public health and animal health SyS literature, we put forward for discussion a 6-step approach to designing SyS systems for livestock and poultry.The first step is to formalise policy and surveillance goals which are considerate of stakeholder expectations and reflect priority issues (1). Next, it is important to find consensus on national priority diseases and identify current surveillance gaps. The geographic, demographic, and temporal coverage of the system must be carefully assessed (2). A minimum dataset for SyS that includes the essential data to achieve all surveillance objectives while minimizing the amount of data collected should be defined. One can then compile an inventory of the data sources available and evaluate each using the criteria developed (3). A list of syndromes should then be produced for all data sources. Cases can be classified into syndrome classes and the data can be converted into time series (4). Based on the characteristics of the syndrome-time series, the length of historic data available and the type of outbreaks the system must detect, different aberration detection algorithms can be tested (5). Finally, it is essential to develop a minimally acceptable response protocol for each statistical signal produced (6).Important outcomes of this pre-operational phase should be building of a national network of experts and collective action and evaluation plans. While some of the more applied steps (4 and 5) are currently receiving consideration, more emphasis should be put on earlier conceptual steps by decision makers and surveillance developers (1-3). © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article10" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.126
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Emerging infectious disease (EID) communication during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak: Literature review (2009-2013) of the methodology used for EID communication analysis
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objective This year alone has seen outbreaks of epidemics such as Ebola, Chikungunya, and many other emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). We must look to the responses of recent outbreaks to help guide our strategies in current and future outbreaks or we risk repeating the same mistakes. The objective of this paper was to conduct a systematic literature review of the methodology used by studies that examined EID communication during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outbreak through different communication channels or by analyzing contents and strategies. Methods This was a systematic review of the literature (n=61) studying risk communication strategies of H1N1 influenza, published between 2009 and 2013, and retrieved from searches of computerized databases, hand searches, and authoritative texts by use of specific search criteria. Searches were followed by review, categorization, and mixed qualitative and quantitative content analysis. Results Of 41 articles that used quantitative methods, most used surveys (n=35); some employed content analyses (n=4) and controlled trials (n=2). The 16 articles that employed qualitative methods relied on content analyses (n=10), semi-structured interviews (n=2) and focus groups (n=4). Four more articles used mixed-methods or nonstandard methods. Seven different topic categories were found: risk perception and effects on behaviors, framing the risk in the media, public concerns, trust, optimistic bias, uncertainty, and evaluating risk communication. Conclusions Up until 2013, studies tended to be descriptive and quantitative rather than discursive and qualitative and to focus on the role of the media as representing information and not as a medium for actual communication with the public. Several studies from 2012, and increasingly more in 2013, addressed issues of discourse and framing and the complexity of risk communication with the public. Formative evaluations that use recommendations from past research when designing communication camp
</A></p>
<A name="article11" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.88
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Networks of preparedness and response during Australian H1N1 outbreak
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objective New theoretical and practical approaches were used to determine the outcome of complex interorganizational networks during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Australia. Methods Seventy health professionals from different skill sets and organizational positions who participated in the 2009 swine influenza H1N1 outbreak in Australia were surveyed. Interviews were designed to collect both qualitative and quantitative data to build a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the dynamics of interorganizational networks that evolve during the coordinated response to the H1N1 outbreak. Three main components of network theory, ie, degree centrality, connectedness, and tie strength, were used to construct a performance model for assessing networks of preparedness and response. Results We observed that increasing communication frequency and diversifying the tiers of the interorganizational links enhanced the overall network's performance in the case of formal coordination. Network measures such as centrality, connectedness, and tie strength were relevant and resulted in improving the entire network's performance during the outbreak. Conclusion In the context of a disease outbreak in a complex environment and a large geographical area, this investigation has provided a new perspective for understanding how the structure of a collaborative network of personnel affects the performance of the overall network. Copyright © 2015 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article12" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jgs.13339
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Transmission and effect of multiple clusters of seasonal influenza in a swiss geriatric hospital
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objectives To investigate a nosocomial outbreak of influenza. Design Prospective outbreak investigation with active case finding and molecular typing. Setting A large academic geriatric hospital in Switzerland. Participants Elderly hospitalized adults. Measurements Based on syndromic surveillance, a nosocomial influenza outbreak was suspected in February 2012. All suspected cases were screened for respiratory viruses using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction of nasopharyngeal swabs. Infection control procedures (droplet precautions with single room isolation whenever possible) were implemented for all suspected or confirmed cases. Specimens positive for influenza viruses were processed and sequenced whenever possible to track transmission dynamics. Results Respiratory samples from 155 suspected cases were analyzed during the outbreak period, of which 69 (44%) were positive for influenza virus, 26 (17%) were positive for other respiratory viruses, and 60 (39%) were negative. Three other cases fulfilled clinical criteria for influenza infection but were not sampled, and one individual was admitted with an already positive test, resulting in a total of 73 influenza cases, of which 62 (85%) were classified as nosocomial. Five distinct clusters of nosocomial transmission were identified using viral sequencing, with epidemiologically unexpected in-hospital transmission dynamics. Seven of 23 patients who experienced influenza complications died. Sixteen healthcare workers experienced an influenza-like illness (overall vaccination rate, 36%). Conclusion Nosocomial influenza transmission caused more secondary cases than repeated community importation during this polyclonal outbreak. Molecular tools revealed complex transmission dynamics. Low healthcare worker vaccination rates and gaps in recommended infection control procedures are likely to have contributed to nosocomial spread of influenza, which remains a potentially life-threatening disease in elde
</A></p>
<A name="article13" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.12.014
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">A rationale to unify measurements of effectiveness for animal health surveillance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Surveillance systems produce data which, once analysed and interpreted, support decisions regarding disease management. While several performance measures for surveillance are in use, no theoretical framework has been proposed yet with a rationale for defining and estimating effectiveness measures of surveillance systems in a generic way. An effective surveillance system is a system whose data collection, analysis and interpretation processes lead to decisions that are appropriate given the true disease status of the target population. Accordingly, we developed a framework accounting for sampling, testing and data interpretation processes, to depict in a probabilistic way the direction and magnitude of the discrepancy between "decisions that would be made if the true state of a population was known" and the "decisions that are actually made upon the analysis and interpretation of surveillance data". The proposed framework provides a theoretical basis for standardised quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of surveillance systems. We illustrate such approaches using hypothetical surveillance systems aimed at monitoring the prevalence of an endemic disease and at detecting an emerging disease as early as possible and with an empirical case study on a passive surveillance system aiming at detecting cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza cases in Vietnamese poultry. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article14" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.87
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Public risk perceptions and preventive behaviors during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objective This study examines the public perception of the 2009 H1N1 influenza risk and its association with flu-related knowledge, social contexts, and preventive behaviors during the second wave of the influenza outbreak in Arizona. Methods Statistical analyses were conducted on survey data, which were collected from a random-digit telephone survey of the general public in Arizona in October 2009. Results The public perceived different levels of risk regarding the likelihood and their concern about contracting the 2009 H1N1 flu. These measures of risk perception were primarily correlated with people of Hispanic ethnicity, having children in the household, and recent seasonal flu experience in the previous year. The perceived likelihood was not strongly associated with preventive behaviors, whereas the perceived concern was significantly associated with precautionary and preparatory behaviors. The association between perceived concern and precautionary behavior persisted after controlling for demographic characteristics. Conclusions Pandemic preparedness and response efforts need to incorporate these findings to help develop effective risk communication strategies that properly induce preventive behaviors among the public. Copyright © 2015 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article15" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2015.1011982
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Detection of influenza vaccine effectiveness among nursery school children: Lesson from a season with cocirculating respiratory syncytial virus
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In the winter influenza epidemic season, patients with respiratory illnesses including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections increase among young children. Therefore, we evaluated the effectiveness of influenza vaccine against influenza-like illness (ILI) using a technique to identify outbreaks of RSV infection and to distinguish those patients from ILI patients. The study subjects were 101 children aged 12 to 84 months attending nursery school. We classified the cases into 6 levels based on the definitions of ILI for outcomes. We established observation periods according to information obtained from regional surveillance and rapid diagnostic tests among children. Multivariate odds ratios (ORs) for each case classification were obtained using a logistic regression model for each observation period. For the entire observation period, ORs for cases with fever plus respiratory symptoms were reduced marginally significantly. For the local influenza epidemic period, only the OR for the most serious cases was significantly decreased (0.20 [95%CI: 0.04-0.94]). During the influenza outbreak among the nursery school children, multivariate ORs for fever plus respiratory symptoms decreased significantly (? 38.0°C plus ? one symptoms: 0.23 [0.06-0.91), ? 38.0°C plus ? 2 symptoms: 0.21 [0.05-0.85], ? 39.0°C plus ? one symptoms: 0.18 [0.04-0.93] and ? 39.0°C plus ? 2 symptoms: 0.16 [0.03-0.87]). These results suggest that confining observation to the peak influenza epidemic period and adoption of a strict case classification system can minimize outcome misclassification when evaluating the effectiveness of influenza vaccine against ILI, even if influenza and RSV cocirculate in the same season. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
</A></p>
<A name="article16" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.160
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Perceptions and behavioral responses of the general public during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: A systematic review
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The public plays an important role in controlling the spread of a virus by adopting preventive measures. This systematic literature review aimed to gain insight into public perceptions and behavioral responses to the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, with a focus on trends over time and regional differences. We screened 5498 articles and identified 70 eligible studies from PubMed, Embase, and PsychINFO. Public misconceptions were apparent regarding modes of transmission and preventive measures. Perceptions and behaviors evolved during the pandemic. In most countries, perceived vulnerability increased, but perceived severity, anxiety, self-efficacy, and vaccination intention decreased. Improved hygienic practices and social distancing were practiced most commonly. However, vaccination acceptance remained low. Marked regional differences were noted. To prevent misconceptions, it is important that health authorities provide up-to-date information about the virus and possible preventive measures during future outbreaks. Health authorities should continuously monitor public perceptions and misconceptions. Because public perceptions and behaviors varied between countries during the pandemic, risk communication should be tailored to the specific circumstances of each country. Finally, the use of health behavior theories in studies of public perceptions and behaviors during outbreaks would greatly facilitate the development of effective public health interventions that counter the effect of an outbreak. Copyright © 2015 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article17" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/JVI.03249-14
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Spread and persistence of influenza A viruses in waterfowl hosts in the North American Mississippi migratory flyway
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">While geographic distance often restricts the spread of pathogens via hosts, this barrier may be compromised when host species are mobile. Migratory waterfowl in the order Anseriformes are important reservoir hosts for diverse populations of avian-origin influenza A viruses (AIVs) and are assumed to spread AIVs during their annual continental-scale migrations. However, support for this hypothesis is limited, and it is rarely tested using data from comprehensive surveillance efforts incorporating both the temporal and spatial aspects of host migratory patterns. We conducted intensive AIV surveillance of waterfowl using the North American Mississippi Migratory Flyway (MMF) over three autumn migratory seasons. Viral isolates (n = 297) from multiple host species were sequenced and analyzed for patterns of gene dispersal between northern staging and southern wintering locations. Using a phylogenetic and nucleotide identity framework, we observed a larger amount of gene dispersal within this flyway rather than between the other three longitudinally identified North American flyways. Across seasons, we observed patterns of regional persistence of diversity for each genomic segment, along with limited survival of dispersed AIV gene lineages. Reassortment increased with both time and distance, resulting in transient AIV constellations. This study shows that within the MMF, AIV gene flow favors spread along the migratory corridor within a season, and also that intensive surveillance during bird migration is important for identifying virus dispersal on time scales relevant to pandemic responsiveness. In addition, this study indicates that comprehensive monitoring programs to capture AIV diversity are critical for providing insight into AIV evolution and ecology in a major natural reservoir. © 2015, American Society for Microbiology.
</A></p>
<A name="article18" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/pim.12191
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Immune responses of wild birds to emerging infectious diseases
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Summary: Over the past several decades, outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in wild birds have attracted worldwide media attention, either because of their extreme virulence or because of alarming spillovers into agricultural animals or humans. The pathogens involved have been found to infect a variety of bird hosts ranging from relatively few species (e.g. Trichomonas gallinae) to hundreds of species (e.g. West Nile Virus). Here we review and contrast the immune responses that wild birds are able to mount against these novel pathogens. We discuss the extent to which these responses are associated with reduced clinical symptoms, pathogen load and mortality, or conversely, how they can be linked to worsened pathology and reduced survival. We then investigate how immune responses to EIDs can evolve over time in response to pathogen-driven selection using the illustrative case study of the epizootic outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in wild North American house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). We highlight the need for future work to take advantage of the substantial inter- and intraspecific variation in disease progression and outcome following infections with EID to elucidate the extent to which immune responses confer increased resistance through pathogen clearance or may instead heighten pathogenesis. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article19" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.02.018
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
</A></p>
<A name="article20" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/K-05-2014-0103
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Optimal vaccination policy and cost analysis for epidemic control in resource-limited settings
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to use analytical method and optimization tools to suggest time-optimal vaccination program for a basic SIR epidemic model with mass action contact rate when supply is limited. Design/methodology/approach - The Lagrange Multiplier Method and Pontryagin's Maximum Principle are used to explore optimal control strategy and obtain analytical solution for the control system to minimize the total cost of disease with boundary constraint. The numerical simulation is done with Matlab using the sequential linear programming method to illustrate the impact of parameters. Findings - The result highlighted that the optimal control strategy is Bang-Bang control - to vaccinate with maximal effort until either all of the resources are used up or epidemic is over, and the optimal strategies and total cost of vaccination are usually dependent on whether there is any constraint of resource, however, the optimal strategy is independent on the relative cost of vaccination when the supply is limited. Practical implications - The research indicate a practical view that the enhancement of daily vaccination rate is critical to make effective initiatives to prevent epidemic from out breaking and reduce the costs of control. Originality/value - The analysis of the time-optimal application of outbreak control is of clear practical value and the introducing of resource constraint in epidemic control is of realistic sense, these are beneficial for epidemiologists and public health officials. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
</A></p>
<A name="article21" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jsat.2015.01.005
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Factors associated with hospitalization for blood-borne viral infections among treatment-seeking illicit drug users
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Blood-borne viral infections (BBVIs) are important health consequences of illicit drug use. This study assessed predictors of inpatient hospital admissions for BBVIs in a cohort of 4817 clients seeking treatment for drug use in Finland. We examined clients' data on hospital admissions registered in the Finnish National Hospital Discharge Register from 1997 to 2010 with diagnoses of BBVIs. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were separately conducted for each of the three BBVI groups to test for association between baseline variables and hospitalizations. Findings were reported as adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs). Based upon primary discharge diagnoses, 81 clients were hospitalized for HIV, 116 for hepatitis C, and 45 for other types of hepatitis. Compared to those admitted for hepatitis C and other hepatitis, drug users with HIV had higher total number of hospital admissions (294 versus 141 and 50 respectively), higher crude hospitalization rate (7.1 versus 3.4.and 1.2 per 1000 person-years respectively), and higher total length of hospital stay (2857 days versus 279 and 308 respectively). Trends in hospitalization for all BBVI groups declined at the end of follow-up. HIV positive status at baseline (aHR: 6.58) and longer duration of drug use (aHR: 1.11) were independently associated with increased risk for HIV hospitalization. Female gender (aHR: 3.05) and intravenous use of primary drug (aHR: 2.78) were significantly associated with HCV hospitalization. Having hepatitis B negative status at baseline (aHR: 0.25) reduced the risk of other hepatitis hospitalizations. Illicit drug use coexists with blood-borne viral infections. To address this problem, clinicians treating infectious diseases need to also identify drug use in their patients and provide drug treatment information and/or referral. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article22" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.124
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Risk communication during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: Stakeholder experiences from eight European countries
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Objective We aimed to assess professional stakeholders' perceptions of the risk-communication difficulties faced during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Europe. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts involved in the management of the 2009 swine flu pandemic from different European countries. The interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded. Results A total of 25 experts from 8 European countries were interviewed: 9 from the micro-level, 10 from the meso-level, and 6 from the macro-level of employment. The interviews revealed 3 main themes: vaccine issues, communication issues, and general problems. As reasons for the low vaccination coverage, stakeholders mentioned the late arrival of the vaccines, the moderate character of the pandemic, vaccine safety concerns, and a general skepticism toward vaccination. Communication needs varied between the different levels of employment: macro- and meso-level stakeholders preferred fast information but from multiple sources; the micro-level stakeholders preferred one credible source. Throughout Europe, collaboration with the media was perceived as poor and professionals felt misunderstood. Conclusions Professional stakeholders should be enabled to access reliable information rapidly through preestablished channels; emphasis should be placed on establishing sustainable cooperations between experts and the media; and measures to improve trust in health authorities, such as the transparent communication of uncertainties, should be encouraged. Copyright © 2015 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
</A></p>
<A name="article23" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.02.019
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the bovine abortion surveillance system in France
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Bovine abortion is the main clinical sign of bovine brucellosis, a disease of which France has been declared officially free since 2005. To ensure the early detection of any brucellosis outbreak, event-driven surveillance relies on the mandatory notification of bovine abortions and the brucellosis testing of aborting cows. However, the under-reporting of abortions appears frequent. Our objectives were to assess the aptitude of the bovine abortion surveillance system to detect each and every bovine abortion and to identify factors influencing the system's effectiveness. We evaluated five attributes defined by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control with a method suited to each attribute: (1) data quality was studied quantitatively and qualitatively, as this factor considerably influences data analysis and results; (2) sensitivity and representativeness were estimated using a unilist capture-recapture approach to quantify the surveillance system's effectiveness; (3) acceptability and simplicity were studied through qualitative interviews of actors in the field, given that the surveillance system relies heavily on abortion notifications by farmers and veterinarians. Our analysis showed that (1) data quality was generally satisfactory even though some errors might be due to actors' lack of awareness of the need to collect accurate data; (2) from 2006 to 2011, the mean annual sensitivity - i.e. the proportion of farmers who reported at least one abortion out of all those who detected such events - was around 34%, but was significantly higher in dairy than beef cattle herds (highlighting a lack of representativeness); (3) overall, the system's low sensitivity was related to its low acceptability and lack of simplicity. This study showed that, in contrast to policy-makers, most farmers and veterinarians perceived the risk of a brucellosis outbreak as negligible. They did not consider sporadic abortions as a suspected case of brucellosis and usually reported abortions only to
</A></p>
<A name="article24" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/SH14140
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">A novel response to an outbreak of infectious syphilis in Christchurch, New Zealand
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">During 2012, Christchurch experienced a dramatic increase in cases of infectious syphilis among men who have sex with men. This was accompanied by some novel trends; notably, the acquisition of infection in a younger age group, with local sexual contacts, commonly via the use of social media. This study is a report on an approach to case identification and public health communication as a component of a multifaceted outbreak response. Enhanced syphilis surveillance data on public health responses to outbreaks of sexually transmissible infections was collated and reviewed, alongside clinical records and literature. Reported outbreak response methods were adapted for the Christchurch cohort. A Facebook page was created to raise awareness of infectious syphilis, the importance of screening and where to get tested. Twenty-six males were diagnosed with infectious syphilis in 2012, an increase from previous years, of which 22 reported only male sexual contact. High use of social media used to find potential sexual contacts was reported. Enhanced syphilis surveillance characterised in detail an infectious syphilis outbreak in Christchurch. Index cases were identified, contact tracing mapping was used to identify transmission networks and social media was also used to educate the risk group. There was a decrease in infectious syphilis presentations, with no cases in the last 3 months of 2012. © CSIRO 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article25" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0085
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<H2><p class = "ex">The livestock reservoir for antimicrobial resistance: A personal view on changing patterns of risks, effects of interventions and the way forward
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">The purpose of this review was to provide an updated overview on the use of antimicrobial agents in livestock, the associated problems for humans and current knowledge on the effects of reducing resistance in the livestock reservoir on both human health and animal production. There is still limiting data on both use of antimicrobial agents, occurrence and spread of resistance as well as impact on human health. However, in recent years, emerging issues related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium difficile, Escherichia coli and horizontally transferred genes indicates that the livestock reservoir has a more significant impact on human health than was estimated 10 years ago, where the focus was mainly on resistance in Campylobacter and Salmonella. Studies have indicated that there might only be a marginal if any benefit from the regular use of antibiotics and have shown that it is possible to substantially reduce the use of antimicrobial agents in livestock production without compromising animal welfare or health or production. In some cases, this should be done in combination with other measures such as biosecurity and use of vaccines. To enable better studies on both the global burden and the effect of interventions, there is a need for global harmonized integrated and continuous surveillance of antimicrobial usage and antimicrobial resistance, preferably associated with data on production and animal diseases to determine the positive and negative impact of reducing antimicrobial use in livestock. © 2015 The Author(s).
</A></p>
<A name="article26" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/SH14173
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Evolution of the syphilis epidemic among men who have sex with men
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Syphilis has existed for millenni, but its epidemiology was only recently linked to men who have sex with men (MSM) after the introduction of penicillin in the 1940s; the syphilis epidemic became concentrated within the MSM community in subsequent decades. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s led to a surge of new syphilis cases and revealed the potentiation between HIV and syphilis, as evidenced by a shift in the natural history of neurosyphilis. In response, MSM revolutionised their sexual behaviour by implementing community-driven seroadaptive strategies to stem HIV transmission. The Centers for Disease Control in the US called for the elimination of syphilis in the late 1990s since the rates had fallen sharply but this effort was overtaken by a resurgence of global outbreaks among MSM in the 2000s, many of which were linked to methamphetamine use and sexual networking websites. Syphilis remains highly prevalent today, especially among MSM and individuals infected with HIV, and it continues to present a significant public health conundrum. Innovative syphilis prevention strategies are warranted. MSM engaging in high-risk behaviour such as condomless anal receptive intercourse, sex with multiple partners or recreational drug use should be routinely screened for syphilis infection; they should also be counselled about the limits of seroadaptive behaviours and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis as they relate to syphilis transmission. © CSIRO 2015.
</A></p>
<A name="article27" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.03.100
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Internet activity as a proxy for vaccination compliance
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Tracking the progress of vaccination campaigns is a challenging and important public health need. Examining a recent Polio outbreak in the Middle East, we show that novel methods utilizing online search trends have great potential to provide a real-time, reliable proxy for vaccination rates over space and time. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
</A></p>
<A name="article28" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2015.1011575
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Pertussis remains a challenging public health problem with many aspects of infection, disease and immunity poorly understood. Initially controlled by mass vaccination, pertussis resurgence has occurred in some countries with wellestablished vaccination programs, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Several studies have used mathematical models to investigate drivers of pertussis epidemiology and predict the likely impact of different vaccination strategies. We reviewed a number of these models to evaluate their suitability to answer questions of public health importance regarding optimal vaccine scheduling. We critically discuss the approaches adopted and the impact of chosen model structures and assumptions on study conclusions. Common limitations were a lack of contemporary, population relevant data for parameterization and a limited understanding of the relationship between infection and disease. We make recommendations for future model development and suggest epidemiologic data collections that would facilitate efforts to reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of model-derived conclusions. © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
</A></p>
<A name="article29" href ='http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2014.11.005
'>
<H2><p class = "ex">Potential impact of climatic variability on the epidemiology of dengue in Risaralda, Colombia, 2010-2011
</H2></p>
<p class = "ex">Dengue continues to be the most important viral vector-borne disease in the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America, and is significantly affected by climate variability. The influence of climate in an endemic region of Colombia, from 2010 to 2011, was assessed. Epidemiological surveillance data (weekly cases) were collected, and incidence rates were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess the influence of the macroclimatic variable ONI (Oscillation Niño Index) and the microclimatic variable pluviometry (mm of rain for Risaralda) on the dengue incidence rate, adjusting by year and week. During the study period, 13,650 cases were reported. In 2010, the rates ranged from 8.6 cases/100,000 pop. up to a peak of 75.3 cases/100,000 pop. for a cumulative rate of 456.2 cases/100,000 pop. in that week. The climate variability in 2010 was higher (ONI 1.6, El Niño to -1.5, La Niña) than in 2011 (ONI -1.4, La Niña to -0.2, Neutral). The mean pluviometry was 248.45mm (min 135.9-max 432.84). During El Niño, cases were significantly higher (mean 433.81) than during the climate neutral period (142.48) and during the La Niña (52.80) phases (ANOVA F=66.59; p<0.001). Regression models showed that the ONI (coefficient 0.329; 95%CI 0.209-0.450) and pluviometry (coefficient 0.003; 95%CI 0.002-0.004) were highly significant independent variables associated with dengue incidence rate, after adjusting by year and week (p<0.001, pseudo r2=0.6913). El Niño significantly affected the incidence of dengue in Risaralda. This association with climate change and variability should be considered in the elements influencing disease epidemiology. In addition, predictive models should be developed further with more available data from disease surveillance. © 2014 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences.
</A></p>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/isds/items/"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 1(no login needed) </span></a> <br>
<a href = "https://www.zotero.org/groups/isds_research_committee_literature_review/items//"> <span style="font-size:150%;color:blue;"> Zotero article collection 2(with supplementary info)
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